Forex News Timeline
23:00 United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows up to $259.4B in May from previous $-7.8B
United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows up to $259.4B in May from previous $-7.8B
23:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows rose from previous $-14.2B to $311.1B in May
United States Total Net TIC Flows rose from previous $-14.2B to $311.1B in May
22:44 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sellers dominate but a Doji candle hints at indecision
GBP/USD is at a technical inflection point, a battleground between weakening bullish momentum and growing bearish pressure.
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GBP/USD weekly chart hints at cracks in the medium-term outlook.GBP/USD is at a technical inflection point, a battleground between weakening bullish momentum and growing bearish pressure. Thursday’s Doji candle on the daily chart, reflects a temporary pause, with the lack of a body signaling that buyers stepped in to defend the 1.3390–1.3370 region, despite early downside pressure. While the candle hasn’t closed yet, this kind of price action often indicates rejection of lower levels or at least buyer interest emerging near key support. It doesn’t yet confirm a reversal, but it does raise the stakes for both sides.GBP/USD clings to key support as sellers tighten their gripGBP/USD has broken below its rising channel and is now hovering above 1.3400 with a major support zone forming at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-July rally near 1.3390.Price action remains below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance level of 1.3505 and the 20-day SMA at 1.3579, signaling a notable loss of short-term bullish momentum. The failed hold above the 1.3500 psychological level and a break below the channel structure suggest that sellers are beginning to assert control.Momentum indicators confirm the shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 39 and is shifting closer toward oversold territory but not quite there yet. Meanwhile, the Average True Range (ATR) sits near 0.00927, showing daily volatility has compressed to about 92–93 pips. When the ATR contracts, it often precedes a breakout, so traders should watch for an increase in volatility, especially near key technical levels.If price decisively breaks below 1.3390, the next downside targets are the 100-day SMA at 1.3281, followed by the 38.2% Fibo level at 1.3144 zone.With the short-term trend signaling that selling pressure continues to build , bulls would need to reclaim the 50-day SMA and recover above the 1.3575 zone to shift short-term sentiment back in their favor.GBP/USD daily chartGBP/USD weekly chart hints at cracks in the medium-term outlookZooming out, the GBP/USD weekly chart confirms a clear bearish shift. The sharp rejection from the July high near 1.3789, marked by a long upper wick, was the first warning sign. Last week’s full-bodied bearish candle followed through decisively, closing near the lows at channel support reflected strong, sustained selling pressure. This wasn’t just a pullback, it was a clean downside move. The current weekly candle has a small lower wick after bears failed to break below the 23.6% Fibo level on Thursday. However, the full body of the candle is building onto last week’s downside momentum. The absence of a significant lower wick so far shows little pushback from buyers, reinforcing the idea that sellers are in clear control at this stage. This is a classic bearish continuation candle, particularly concerning given it forming right at a critical support area around 1.3390.If this price action holds into the weekly close, it would mark a clean break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could pave the way toward deeper downside levels such as the 20-week SMA at 1.3299, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3144. Momentum is clearly deteriorating, and the structure of this weekly candle makes it harder for bulls to argue for a near-term bounce, unless there’s a significant reversal before Friday’s close.The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 57 suggests that the broader trend remains intact, but momentum is clearly weakening.USD/GBP weekly chartWith GBP/USD holding just above critical support and volatility compressed, the pair is approaching a tipping point, and whichever side seizes control next could define the direction for weeks to come. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
22:28 Canadian Dollar loses ground against recovering Greenback
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shed further weight on Thursday, falling to its lowest bids against the US Dollar (USD) in nearly a month as Greenback-based market flows reverse course back into the USD.
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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
22:11 Gold slips as strong US data supports Fed hold
Gold price dropped by over 0.26% during the North American session on Thursday, trimming some of its earlier losses of nearly 1%.
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The release of solid economic data from the United States, which supports the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance to hold rates unchanged at the upcoming July meeting, contributed to this decline. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,340.The market mood remains positive throughout the trading day, which serves as a headwind for Gold prices, as investors digest the latest job and consumer data. Initial Jobless Claims for the last week continued to show improvement in the labor market. At the same time, Retail Sales data indicated that American households remain resilient, although the data suggest that the jump in sales is mainly attributed to higher prices.After the data, some Fed officials crossed the wires. Governor Adriana Kugler commented that monetary policy needs to remain steady for quite some time. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that there’s some work to be done on inflation, as they have not yet achieved price stability.In the meantime, investors continued to price in less easing by the Fed as further data became available, which dampens the demand for the non-yielding metal. The December 2025 fed funds rates futures contract shows that traders expect 42 basis points (bps) of easing, as revealed by the CBOT.On the trade side, Japan’s negotiator Ryosei Akazawa held talks with the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in efforts to avert or diminish 25% tariffs imposed on Japanese products.Ahead this week, traders will eye Fed speeches and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.Gold daily market movers: Extends losses on upbeat US jobs dataUS Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 dipped from 228K on the previous print to 221K, below forecasts of 235K. The data support the Fed’s cautious stance, as the labor market remains healthy, although it hasn’t been cited as a cause for inflation.Retail Sales in June exceeded forecasts of 0.1% MoM, rose by 0.6% MoM and crushed May’s 0.9% plunge as some of the increase is a reflection of higher prices due to tariffs. Inflation on the consumer side revealed earlier in the week that prices are edging higherFed Governor Adriana Kugler added to her hawkish remarks that inflation remains above target, while the labor market remains stable and resilient. She added that CPI inflation is broadening to core goods.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented that the economy is in a good place and that, despite restrictive rates, the June CPI began to show the effect of tariffs. Despite this, she added that duties might have a muted impact on inflation and that she still favors two rate cuts.US Treasury yields remain flat on Thursday, with the US 10-year Treasury yield, which typically correlates negatively with Gold, steady at 4.461%. However, Bullion prices remain weighed by the strength of the Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.45% at 98.72.Interest rate probability indicates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current rates, with odds standing at 95% for a hold and 5% for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the July 30 meeting.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains directionless, trapped within the $3,300-$3,400 rangeConsolidation is the name of the game, as depicted by Gold’s daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above its neutral line, but its slope remains flat, indicating further sideways action. However, from a price action standpoint, bulls remain in control, but they need to clear key resistance levels.For a bullish continuation, XAU/USD must climb past $3,400, which will expose the June 16 high of $3,452, ahead of the record high of $3,500. Conversely, if XAU/USD drops below $3,300, look for a decline to the June 30 low of $3,246, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,209. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
21:26 Forex Today: The Yen takes centre stage ahead of inflation data and elections
The Greenback resumed its uptrend on Thursday, rapidly reversing the previous day’s pullback as investors assessed auspicious US data releases while keeping a close watch on the Trump-Powell effervescence and developments around trade.
The Greenback resumed its uptrend on Thursday, rapidly reversing the previous day’s pullback as investors assessed auspicious US data releases while keeping a close watch on the Trump-Powell effervescence and developments around trade.Here's what to watch on Friday, July 18:The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced strongly, resuming its two-week rebound and approaching the key 99.00 barrier on the back of firm results from key fundamentals. The preliminary U-Mich Consumer Sentiment gauge takes precedence, seconded by Building Permits and Housing Starts. In addition, the Fed’s Waller is due to speak.Further downside pressure saw EUR/USD drift lower and revisit the mid-1.1500s, or multi-week troughs. Producer Prices in Germany will be released, followed by Current Account and Constructio Output in the broader Euroland.GBP/USD seems to have entered a consolidative phase in the lower end of its recent range in the sub-1.3400 zone. Next on tap on the UK docket will be the publication of the UK’s public sector finances on July 22.USD/JPY continued to consolidate its move to three-month highs past the 149.00 barrier amid another week of solid gains. Japan’s Inflation Rate will be at the centre of the debate.Solid gains in the Greenback triggered a pronounced correction in AUD/USD to the area of three-week lows near 0.6450. Next on tap in Oz will be the release of the RBA Minutes on July 22.Prices of the american WTI added to their weekly retracement, this time hovering around the $66.00 region per barrel amid a stronger US Dollar, alleviated trade concerns, and steady geopolitical jitters.Gold prices maintained their consolidation just above the $3,300 mark per troy ounce, trading in an erratic fashion on the back of the firm bias in the Greenback and a slight improvement on the trade front. Silver prices alternated gains with losses near the $38.00 mark per ounce.
21:13 GBP/JPY rises on weak Japanese trade data, CPI in focus
The British Pound (GBP) gains positive traction against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday as sentiment surrounding the Yen remains fragile following Japan's disappointing Trade Balance data.
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Investor caution is also mounting ahead of Japan's upper-house election on July 20, which could prompt shifts in fiscal and economic policy.The GBP/JPY cross is holding firm during the American trading hours, hovering close to its intraday high of 199.56. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 199.30, retracing most of the previous day’s losses. That said, the cross remains trapped within a tight trading range that has been in place for over a week.Japan’s trade report for June showed the country posted a surplus of ¥153.1 billion, sharply below market expectations of ¥353.9 billion. Exports dropped 0.5% YoY, largely dragged down by a 26.7% plunge in auto shipments to the United States as US tariffs begin to bite. Imports edged up 0.2%, further weighing on the trade balance. The disappointing figures raise concerns over the health of Japan’s export-driven economy and underscore the pressure on the Yen, especially amid limited scope for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten policy in the face of external headwinds and domestic uncertainty.Meanwhile, the Pound finds support as traders digest a fresh batch of UK economic data. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.7% in the three months to May, while Average Earnings Excluding Bonus slowed to 5.0% YoY, slightly above market expectations of 4.9%, signaling a cooling but still resilient labour market. However, inflation data released on Wednesday surprised to the upside with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbing to 3.6% in June, well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. This combination of rising unemployment and persistent inflation presents a challenge for policymakers. While the softening labour market strengthens the case for interest rate cuts, sticky inflation may delay the Bank of England's (BoE) timeline, keeping markets on edge.Looking ahead, attention shifts to Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due on Thursday. The report is expected to shed light on domestic inflation dynamics and could influence market expectations around the Bank of Japan’s next policy move. Although core inflation has remained above the BoJ’s 2% target in recent months, the central bank has adopted a cautious stance, citing subdued domestic demand and external pressures. A stronger-than-expected CPI reading may revive speculation about a gradual policy shift, while a softer print could reinforce the Yen’s downside bias and maintain the current policy divergence with major central banks. Economic Indicator National Consumer Price Index (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 3.5% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
21:00 AUD/USD slides as weak Australian jobs data meets robust US retail sales
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after employment data from Australia reflected a slowdown in the labour market. Meanwhile, US Retail Sales data surprised to the upside, reflecting an increase in consumer spending in June.
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Meanwhile, US Retail Sales data surprised to the upside, reflecting an increase in consumer spending in June. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading below 0.6485 with intraday losses near 0.70%.On Friday, markets will be watching the preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Expectations data for July, which can offer key insights into consumer confidence. Additionally, the UoM 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations will also be in focus to see if the advanced expectations reflect an increase from the prior respective figures of 5% and 4%.With the preliminary Sentiment Index expected to rise slightly to 61.5 from 60.7, elevated inflation expectations or strong sentiment could delay rate cut expectations, while softer readings may support a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook.Australian employment data signals a struggling labour market, raising expectations of RBA rate cut Employment data released on Thursday showed that the unemployment rate in Australia rose to 4.3% in June, above the 4.1% estimate. The Employment Change for June came in at +2K, well below the +20K forecast, signaling a weaker-than-expected labor market recovery.With a softer labour market and a slight decrease in Australian inflation expectations for July declining to 4.7%, from the previous 5% reading, the combination of factors may increase the potential for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates at its next meeting. This would take the benchmark rate from 3.85% to 3.60% if the RBA cuts by 25 basis points. US Retail Sales jump as bets of a September rate cut softenUS Retail Sales data on Thursday reflected an increase in consumer spending for June, coming in at 0.6%, above the expected 0.1% rise.The upside surprise in spending, despite tariff uncertainty and high interest rates, has provided a glimmer of hope for the US economy.As the Federal Reserve continues to express concern over the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, this data, combined with a strong labour market, reflects a resilient economy.Although the interest rate differentials are largely priced in, improved risk sentiment has also pushed out expectations of a rate cut in September.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now sitting at 52.7% , down from 65.4% this time last week. Meanwhile, the likelihood that rates will remain at current levels at the same meeting has climbed to 46.0%, increasing from 29.7%.AUD/USD momentum turns bearish as the price tests key supportThe AUD/USD pair has recently experienced a notable shift in momentum, presenting traders with a critical juncture in its medium-term trend. After forming a Golden Cross, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 200-day EMA, the pair surged within a rising channel, only to face stiff resistance near the psychological 0.6600 level last week. The subsequent rejection from this area, combined with a rebound in the US Dollar, has triggered a pullback. With weekly losses for AUD/USD currently at 1.40% at the time of writing, the pair has slipped below the 50-day EMA, now providing immediate resistance near 0.6490. AUD/USD daily chart
A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45 reflects an increase in bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA has stepped in as support around 0.6445, just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-April decline at 0.6421.A decisive break below this support could open the door to further downside toward 0.6400 and possibly the lower boundary of the ascending wedge pattern at 0.6372, marking a potential bearish reversal. However, if the price holds and rebounds above the 50-day EMA, bulls could regain control, targeting the 61.8% Fibo level at 0.6550, bringing the 0.6600 psychological level back into play. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45 reflects an increase in bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA has stepped in as support around 0.6445, just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-April decline at 0.6421.A decisive break below this support could open the door to further downside toward 0.6400 and possibly the lower boundary of the ascending wedge pattern at 0.6372, marking a potential bearish reversal. However, if the price holds and rebounds above the 50-day EMA, bulls could regain control, targeting the 61.8% Fibo level at 0.6550, bringing the 0.6600 psychological level back into play. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
20:55 US to impose 93.5% tariff on Chinese battery material
According to early reporting, the United States (US) could be poised to introduce a new steep import tariff on Chinese goods, this time centered around battery technology, specifically battery-grade graphite.
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According to early reporting, the United States (US) could be poised to introduce a new steep import tariff on Chinese goods, this time centered around battery technology, specifically battery-grade graphite.More to come... Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
20:32 Dow Jones Industrial Average tests higher ground after upbeat Retail Sales print
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) extended a mid-week rebound on Thursday, tipping back into positive territory for the week as investors continue to brush off inflationary fears, tariff threats, and growing concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be poised to lose its political autonomy
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Rebounding Retail Sales bolstered investor confidence in conjunction with strong quarterly earnings released this week. Around 88% of earnings releases have exceeded Wall Street expectations.Not-bad Retail Sales figures sparked a fresh lash out from President Donald Trump, aimed at Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has ramped up his attacks on the Fed in recent weeks, culminating in Donald Trump signalling to Congress that he's prepared to remove Chair Powell from his position before Powell's term is over.US labor data also came in better than expected, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims falling to 221K. Median market forecasts expected an uptick to 235K compared to the previous week’s 228K.Rate cut hopes still hinge on inflation dataConsumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked higher earlier this week, sparking a fresh round of risk aversion and pushing investor hopes for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts further down the calendar. Cooler-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation assuaged investor fears of a resurgence in headline inflation pressures, and upbeat Retail Sales figures splashed further water on inflationary fires. However, rate markets are still reeling from a sharp readjustment in expectations. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are still pricing in roughly even odds of a fresh rate trim in September, and around 40% odds of a follow-up cut before the end of the year.Not all that glitters is goldThe devil is always in the details, and both PPI inflation data and Retail Sales numbers are no exception. The key stress point on inflation through 2025 is the Trump administration’s roughshod tariff strategy, and the PPI overwhelmingly excludes imported goods and materials from its calculations, meaning tariff-led inflation won’t show up in PPI results until its far too late to matter. Headline Retail Sales are also calculated on an unadjusted basis, meaning monthly releases cannot differentiate between an actual uptick in consumer purchasing and increases in prices that consumers pay at the till. Real Retail Sales, which adjusts consumer purchasing volumes using the CPI, has remained essentially flat since reaching its latest peak in mid-2021.Dow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones continues to find technical support from the 44,000 major price handle, but bullish momentum remains sluggish. The major equity index is holding in bullish territory for the week, but just barely. The Dow remains down over 1% from its latest swing high above 44,800, and equity bulls are struggling to muscle the Dow Jones back into record highs north of 45,000.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
19:57 Fed's Daly holds the line on cautious Fed approach amid price volatility
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary C.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly noted on Thursday that, despite overall progress on inflation and price stability, price pressures still remain a key issue for the Fed, making it difficult to move policy rates amid ongoing turmoil at the outer edges of economic data.Key highlightsStill have some work to do on inflation.
We have solid growth, solid labor market.
What's bothersome still is we haven't achieved price stability.
Focus is on inflation; other things don't distract us.
Policy, economy in a good place.
Rates have been restrictive for a significant number of years.
June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed some of effect of tariffs.
Other parts of inflation are coming down.More to come...
We have solid growth, solid labor market.
What's bothersome still is we haven't achieved price stability.
Focus is on inflation; other things don't distract us.
Policy, economy in a good place.
Rates have been restrictive for a significant number of years.
June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed some of effect of tariffs.
Other parts of inflation are coming down.More to come...
19:27 USD/CHF rebounds on hawkish Fed stance and upbeat US economic data
The US Dollar (USD) is firming against the Swiss Franc (CHF) as upbeat US economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments support demand for US yields.
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The upside surprise in spending, despite tariff uncertainty and high interest rates, has provided a glimmer of hope for the US economy. As the Federal Reserve continues to express concern over the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, this data, combined with a strong labour market, reflects a resilient economy. However, as the August tariff deadline looms, downside risks remain. Higher tariffs on imports to the US remain a major concern for investors and policymakers alike. An increase in these levies is expected to increase costs for producers, raising the potential that these costs will be passed on to consumers.Expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September decline, central bank divergence supports USD/CHF strengthAlthough the interest rate differentials are largely priced in, improved risk sentiment has also pushed out expectations of a rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now sitting at 52.7% , down from 65.4% this time last week. Meanwhile, the likehood that rates will remain at current levels at the same meeting has climbed to 46.0%, increasing from 29.7%.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's comments on Thursday reinforced the hawkish narrative, saying that monetary policy should remain restrictive for "some time." The main objective for the majority of Fed members is to ensure that inflation returns to the objective target of 2%, keeping price pressures constrained.USD/CHF eyes further gains as bearish momentum fades above 0.8000The USD/CHF daily chart is currently displaying signs of a short-term bullish reversal following a sustained downtrend. Price action has recently broken above both the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7995, recovering above the 0.8000 psychological level and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July decline at 0.8015.This move is supported by a strengthening Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has risen above the 50 threshold, indicating a shift in momentum from bearish to neutral. USD/CHF daily chartThe next immediate resistance lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.8103, which may act as a short-term target for buyers. If this level is cleared, further upside toward the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels at 0.8174 and 0.8246, respectively, becomes more plausible. On the downside, support is now seen at the previous resistance zone around 0.7995, with stronger support at 0.7950. A sustained move below these levels would invalidate the current bullish setup. Overall, the chart structure suggests a potential short-term upward continuation, provided the pair maintains support above the 0.7995–0.7950 range. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
18:58 GBP/USD slips on robust US data as Fed cut odds fade
The GBP/USD drops during the North American session, edges down 0.07% following the release of strong US economic data that boosted the Greenback which hit a new July high as it recovers some ground at the beginning of the second half. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3408.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
18:42 German Chancellor Merz signals resistance to EU taxation plans
Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz flashed warning signs on Thursday, warning European Union (EU) plans to shore up budgets using new or increased corporate taxation schemes will likely meet resistance from the German contingent.
Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz flashed warning signs on Thursday, warning European Union (EU) plans to shore up budgets using new or increased corporate taxation schemes will likely meet resistance from the German contingent.Key highlights(The EU) needs to discuss the size of the future budget.
The EU has to make do with the money it has.
It is unacceptable to finance the EU budget through EU-wide corporate tax.
The EU has to make do with the money it has.
It is unacceptable to finance the EU budget through EU-wide corporate tax.
18:32 United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.235% to 4.23%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.235% to 4.23%
18:20 EUR/CHF Price Forecast: Euro stabilizes above 0.9300 as bears fails to trigger a breakdown
EUR/CHF is holding firm on Thursday, with the pair attempting to rebound from the lower boundary of its multi-week consolidation zone.
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Despite repeated downside tests near 0.9300, bears have failed to trigger a breakdown, keeping the pair confined within a tight horizontal channel between 0.9300 and 0.9430 that has been in place since early May.At the time of writing, the cross is hovering near 0.9330, as a notable weakness in the Euro has dragged the pair closer to the lower boundary of the range, reinforcing the bearish pressure and highlighting the market’s lack of momentum.From a technical standpoint, the EUR/CHF cross remains stuck below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which also serves as the mid Bollinger Band and is currently positioned at 0.9344. This level continues to cap upside attempts, acting as a dynamic resistance within the broader consolidation.The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting reduced volatility and a potential buildup for a breakout. However, until a decisive move outside the 0.9300-0.9430 range occurs, sideways action is likely to persist.The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, pointing to reduced volatility and a potential breakout setup. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is only modestly higher at 45.84, suggesting weak but emerging buying interest. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 24.02 suggests that trend strength is gradually building, but remains below the key 25 threshold, indicating that directional conviction is still lacking.A sustained break below the 0.9300 support level would mark a bearish shift, potentially exposing downside levels around 0.9250. On the flip side, a bounce from current levels and a close above the 20-day SMA could see the cross reattempt the upper range boundary near 0.9430, with the next resistance seen at the psychological 0.9500 level. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
17:52 EUR/JPY retreats from YTD high with price action falling in a tight range
The Euro (EUR) is trading in a narrow range against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, after reaching a one-year high of 173.25 on Wednesday. Despite a minor pullback, central bank divergence and a diminishing outlook for Japan's economy remain a key theme.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY pauses after rising to a fresh YTD high on Wednesday.Japan's disappointing Trade Balance and a dovish BoJ remain supportive of EUR/JPY strength.EUR/JPY holds above 172.00 as bulls defend support, psychological resistance firms at 173.00The Euro (EUR) is trading in a narrow range against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, after reaching a one-year high of 173.25 on Wednesday. Despite a minor pullback, central bank divergence and a diminishing outlook for Japan's economy remain a key theme.At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is hovering above the psychological support level of 172.00.Japan's sluggish trade data and underperformance provide a gloomy outlook for the YenJapan released its latest Trade Balance data on Wednesday, which showed that Japan's exports continued to fall as a result of steep tariffs imposed on imports of steel, aluminium and autoparts to the United States (US).Japan's trade data for June reflected mixed performance, highlighting continued external challenges for the economy. The adjusted merchandise trade balance posted a deficit of ¥-235.5 billion, slightly improved from ¥-291.6 billion previously, while the headline trade balance came in at ¥153.1 billion, missing expectations of ¥353.9 billion and falling sharply from ¥638.6 billion in May. Exports declined by 0.5% YoY, underperforming forecasts of a 0.5% gain, though an improvement from May’s 1.7% contraction. On the other hand, imports rose by 0.2%, beating expectations of a 1.6% decline and marking a rebound from the prior 7.7% drop. Additionally, foreign bond and equity investments in Japan fell, signaling weaker foreign capital inflows. Overall, the data suggests soft external demand and weakening trade momentum, which may continue to pressure the Yen, especially as Japan maintains its accommodative monetary policy stance amid global tightening cycles.The weaker-than-expected Japanese trade data reinforces the bearish outlook for the Yen, supporting continued strength in EUR/JPY. The decline in exports signals soft external demand, while the fall in foreign investment flows suggests diminishing appetite for Japanese assets, both of which weigh on the Yen. BoJ-ECB monetary policy divergence supports upside potential for EUR/JPYAt the same time, Japan's sluggish trade performance, coupled with a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ), contrasts sharply with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) more cautious stance, where rate cut expectations remain subdued due to persistent inflation. This monetary policy divergence continues to underpin EUR/JPY’s upward trajectory. EUR/JPY holds above 172.00 as bulls defend support following a fresh YTD tested on WednesdayAfter reaching a fresh YTD high of 173.25 on Wednesday, failure to hold above the psychological resistance level of 173.00 allowed bears to drive price action back toward the 172.00 mark. The current daily candle shows bulls attempting to push prices higher, but the upper wick signals that sellers quickly retaliated, pushing the pair into a narrow range. If bulls manage to gain traction above 173.00, a break of the 174.00 psych level could open the door for a continuation toward the July 2024 high of 175.43.On the downside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August 2024 move is providing support at 170.93, just above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A move lower at a break of the 50-day SMA at 166.78 could then trigger an increase in selling pressure toward the 50% Fibo level at 164.92.Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 69 suggests that the pair is close to overbought territory. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (44B) in July 11: Actual (46B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (44B) in July 11: Actual (46B)
17:00 United States Business Inventories meets expectations (0%) in May
United States Business Inventories meets expectations (0%) in May
17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index meets forecasts (33) in July
United States NAHB Housing Market Index meets forecasts (33) in July
16:52 EUR/USD drops below 1.1600 as US Dollar strengthens on robust Retail Sales data
The Euro (EUR) extended its decline against the US Dollar on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger Greenback and upbeat US economic data.
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Robust Retail Sales and a solid Philly Fed Manufacturing reading reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer, boosting demand for the US Dollar and weighing on the common currency.EUR/USD remains on the defensive near the key psychological level of 1.1600 during the American trading session. At the time of writing, the pair is hovering around 1.1586, down roughly 0.50% on the day as sellers remain in control following a string of strong US data releases.A fresh batch of US economic data on Thursday painted a picture of ongoing strength in consumer activity and a steady labor market. June Retail Sales rose 0.6% MoM, beating expectations of a 0.1% gain and rebounding from May’s sharp decline of -0.9%. Core Retail Sales, which exclude autos and gas, also climbed 0.5%, improving from a 0.2% increase the previous month.Initial Jobless Claims for the week came in at 221,000, lower than the 235,000 forecast, signaling continued tightness in the labor market. But the biggest surprise came from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which jumped to 15.9 in July from -4.0 in June, far above expectations of -1. The stronger-than-expected data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer, boosting the U.S. Dollar and weighing on major peers, such as the Euro.On the Eurozone front, inflation data released earlier in the day offered little relief for the Euro. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% YoY in June, in line with expectations and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also held steady at 2.3% YoY. While services inflation remained elevated, continued softness in energy prices helped cap broader price pressures. The data reaffirmed expectations that the ECB is likely to hold rates steady at its meeting next week, especially as inflation is showing signs of stabilizing.Meanwhile, markets remain focused on trade developments, with optimism persisting that a deal between the US and the EU could be reached before August 1st. The EU’s trade chief, Maroš Šefčovič, is currently in Washington for urgent talks with U.S. officials, but uncertainty remains high. The prospect of a tariff flare-up has added another layer of risk for the Euro, especially as investors weigh the potential economic fallout for the bloc’s export-heavy sectors. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.47% 0.18% 0.49% 0.50% 0.84% 0.48% 0.51% EUR -0.47% -0.30% 0.00% 0.06% 0.39% 0.03% 0.07% GBP -0.18% 0.30% 0.34% 0.33% 0.67% 0.31% 0.34% JPY -0.49% 0.00% -0.34% -0.03% 0.31% -0.01% 0.02% CAD -0.50% -0.06% -0.33% 0.03% 0.42% -0.03% 0.01% AUD -0.84% -0.39% -0.67% -0.31% -0.42% -0.45% -0.29% NZD -0.48% -0.03% -0.31% 0.00% 0.03% 0.45% 0.04% CHF -0.51% -0.07% -0.34% -0.02% -0.01% 0.29% -0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
16:48 Fed’s Kugler: It is appropriate to keep rates steady “for some time”
FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler said that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. She added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology under line.
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FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler said that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. She added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology under line.Key QuotesAppropriate to keep the policy rate of interest steady “for some time” given low unemployment and building price pressure from tariffs.Inflation remains above the 2% target, and the labour market is stable and resilient.A restrictive policy stance is important right now to keep inflation expectations anchored.Estimate of June PCE inflation is 2.5% vs. the 2% target, with core at 2.8%, both higher than in May.CPI shows inflation broadening across core goods.Many reasons to think the larger impact of tariffs on inflation is still to come. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
16:34 USD/JPY climbs as resilient Retail Sales beats estimates with Fed comments in focus
The US Dollar (USD) is gaining renewed momentum against the Japanese Yen (JPY), with central bank divergence continuing to serve as a key driver for the USD/JPY pair.
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As the pair approaches the psychological resistance level at 149.00, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates are lending support to the Greenback on Thursday.At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.47% higher on the day, positioning the pair to recover after a 0.72% decline in the previous session. US Retail Sales data released on Thursday and remarks from several Fed officials may provide further direction for price action.Retail Sales figures for June beat estimates, rising 0.6% in June, above analyst estimates of a 0.1% rise and rebounding sharply after a 0.9% contraction in May. Given that consumer spending accounts for a significant share of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this data offers valuable insight into the strength of the economy, which influences interest rate expectations.In addition, speeches from Fed members scheduled throughout the day may provide greater clarity on the central bank’s policy outlook. With inflation data still indicating elevated price pressures, several policymakers have voiced concern that rising tariffs could further complicate the Fed’s efforts to return inflation to its 2% target.While the Fed maintains its policy rate within the 4.25%–4.50% range, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to keep interest rates at 0.5%, citing the potential economic strain of tightening policy too soon. This contrast in monetary policy and yield differentials remains a key factor supporting continued strength in USD/JPY.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 54.3% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, with a 46.2% probability that rates will remain unchanged until October. Technical analysis: USD/JPY recovers above 148.50USD/JPY is approaching a critical technical juncture, with prices nearing the 149.00 psychological level resistance level.The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April decline serves as additional resistance, a break of which could open the door for the 150.00 mark, a level that has previously served as battleground for bulls and bearsA decisive break above this level could trigger fresh bullish momentum, paving the way toward the 61.8% Fib level at 151.62, and potentially extending the rally toward 154.82, the 78.6% retracement zone that aligns with broader upside targets. With the 38.2% Fibo level providing support at 147.14, further downside may find USD/JPY testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 145.14 and the 23.6% retracement level at 144.37. Technically, the trend remains constructive, with the 10-day SMA (147.04) holding above the 50-day SMA, reinforcing short-term bullish control. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 is edging closer to overbought territory but still leaves room for further gains. These levels are crucial, as a breakout or rejection at resistance will likely define the next phase of direction for USD/JPY.USD/JPY daily chart Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $685.3B from previous $690.6B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $685.3B from previous $690.6B
15:50 Gold price slips as US Retail Sales beat expectations
Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing a pullback in the European session on Thursday as traders digest US Retail Sales data and await further comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The yellow metal trades near $3,315 at the time of writing, losing almost 1% in the day.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price falls as expectations of a Fed rate cut in September decline, supporting yields and the US Dollar.US Retail Sales data beats estimates, a sign that consumer spending has improved.XAU/USD falls into a narrow range, with a breakout above $3,371 or a drop below $3,292 likely to define the next directional move.Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing a pullback in the European session on Thursday as traders digest US Retail Sales data and await further comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The yellow metal trades near $3,315 at the time of writing, losing almost 1% in the day.With the timing of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates still uncertain, several members of the central bank are scheduled to speak throughout the day. Comments from Governor Adriana Kugler, San Francisco President Mary Daly, Governor Lisa Cook, and Governor Christopher Waller will be monitored closely. If investors anticipate that rates will remain higher for longer, there would be increased demand for US Yields, which does not bode well for non-yielding assets such as Gold.Additionally, bullion serves as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. This brings the US economic calendar into focus. On Thursday, US Retail Sales data for June, beat estimates, rising 0.6% in June, above the 0.1% expected by economists. This marks a positive turn for consumer spending trends, which contracted by 0.9% in May. Jobless Claims also came in better than expected, further supporting the US Dollar and weighing on Gold.Daily digest market movers: Gold awaits key Fed speak as uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts lingersThe Retail Sales Control Group, which excludes volatile components such as autos, gas, and building materials, provides a clearer picture of core consumer spending. It is considered a more accurate gauge of underlying retail activity and overall consumer demand. The increase of 0.5% in June after a 0.2% rise in May signals stronger consumer spending, which typically supports economic growth. The minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting showed that the majority of Fed members remain hesitant to pivot away from their restrictive stance without clearer signs of disinflation. As the labour market has shown signs of resilience, the implications of tariffs on inflation remain a key concern. This hawkish tone from members has weighed on Gold, which typically moves inversely to both interest rates and the US Dollar.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, released on Tuesday, reflected persistent inflation at the consumer level, particularly with core inflation rising to 2.9% YoY from 2.8% in May, shifting further away from the Fed’s objective target of 2%. This suggests that price pressures remain elevated, especially in services and essential areas, which the Fed closely monitors.In contrast, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Wednesday showed no monthly growth and a slowdown in yearly terms. This suggests that upstream input costs are easing, which may eventually be reflected in lower consumer inflation, although not immediately.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate cut at the September meeting currently stands at 52.4%, while the prospects of the Fed leaving rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the same meeting rises to 46.3%. Technical analysis: Gold remains rangebound between $3,300 and $3,400Gold price has dipped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,323, with the 20-day SMA providing resistance at $3,331.As price action remains within the confines of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily time frame, the metal remains range-bound. The $3,300 psychological level continues to provide support, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April low-high move just below around $3,292. A deeper pullback could open the door for an extended downward move to the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $3,228 and toward the next psychological level of $3,200.Gold (XAU/USD) daily chartFor the uptrend to gain traction, a break of the 20-day SMA and above triangle resistance at $3,360 is required. The next resistance level rests at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,372, followed by Monday's high of $3,375 and the $3,400 psychological level into focus.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48 reflects a lack of decisive momentum. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
15:38 US Retail Sales rise 0.6% in June vs. 0.1% expected
Retail Sales in the US increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis to $720.1 billion in June, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. This reading followed the 0.9% decrease reported in May and came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.1%.
US Retail Sales rose at a stronger pace than expected in June.US Dollar Index continues to edge higher toward 99.00.Retail Sales in the US increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis to $720.1 billion in June, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. This reading followed the 0.9% decrease reported in May and came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.1%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 3.9% in June, compared to 3.3% in May."Total sales for the April 2025 through June 2025 period were up 4.1% from the same period a year ago," the press release read. Market reactionThe US Dollar preserves its strength following the upbeat Retail Sales data. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.55% on the day at 98.82.
15:35 US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 221K last week
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance fell to 221K for the week ending July 12.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Initial Jobless Claims fell to 221K vs. the previous week.Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.956M.According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance fell to 221K for the week ending July 12. The latest print fell short of initial estimates and the revised figure from the previous week, which stood at 228K after being adjusted from 227K.The report indicated a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.3%. Additionally, the four-week moving average decreased by 6.250K, bringing it down to 229.5K from the revised average of the previous week.Moreover, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 2K to reach 1.956M for the week ending July 5.Market reactionThe Greenback maintains its trade near daily highs in the wake of the data release, reversing Wednesday's losses and motivating the US Dollar Index (DXY) to hover around the 98.80-98.90 range. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
15:33 United States Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.3% to 3.9% in June
United States Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.3% to 3.9% in June
15:33 United States Import Price Index (YoY) down to -0.2% in June from previous 0.2%
United States Import Price Index (YoY) down to -0.2% in June from previous 0.2%
15:31 United States Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.956M (July 4) vs previous 1.965M
United States Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.956M (July 4) vs previous 1.965M
15:31 United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (235K) in July 11: Actual (221K)
United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (235K) in July 11: Actual (221K)
15:31 United States Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in June
United States Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in June
15:31 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities increased to $13.37B in May from previous $4.1B
Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities increased to $13.37B in May from previous $4.1B
15:31 United States Export Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.8% in June from previous 1.7%
United States Export Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.8% in June from previous 1.7%
15:30 United States Retail Sales Control Group climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in June
United States Retail Sales Control Group climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in June
15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities registered at $-2.79B above expectations ($-7.32B) in May
Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities registered at $-2.79B above expectations ($-7.32B) in May
15:30 United States Export Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above forecasts (0%) in June
United States Export Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above forecasts (0%) in June
15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 229.5K in July 11 from previous 235.5K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 229.5K in July 11 from previous 235.5K
15:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above forecasts (0.3%) in June
United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above forecasts (0.3%) in June
15:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey registered at 15.9 above expectations (-1) in July
United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey registered at 15.9 above expectations (-1) in July
15:30 United States Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in June: Actual (0.6%)
United States Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in June: Actual (0.6%)
15:24 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates below multi-year high as bullish momentum softens
Silver (XAG/USD) is little changed on Thursday, trading around $37.80 after logging a modest gain of nearly 0.56% on Wednesday.
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The metal remains elevated after marking a 14-year high of $39.13 earlier this week, but momentum has cooled since as the spot prices consolidate below its peak ahead of US Retail Sales data. Traders are now weighing whether silver has enough strength to push higher or if a near-term pullback is on the cards.On the technical front, Silver remains in an established uptrend, with the price holding firmly above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $36.91. This moving average continues to act as dynamic support, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias. However, the metal has stalled just below the key resistance zone near $39.00-$39.13, where sellers emerged and capped upside attempts.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is easing from near the overbought zone, now hovering around 63.42, after spot prices touched multi-year highs earlier this week. This signals a waning of bullish momentum and a possible pause or pullback in the rally, unless new drivers emerge. Meanwhile, the ADX (Average Directional Index) remains low at 17.85, indicating a lack of strong trend conviction despite the bullish trend.Immediate support is seen around $37.00 round number, aligning with the 21-day EMA and marking a key line in the sand for bulls. A break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback, exposing the next support at $35.50, followed by a stronger demand zone near $34.50. On the upside, a sustained move above $39.13 would likely attract fresh buying interest, opening the door for a push toward the psychological $40.00 level and potentially higher. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
15:10 US Dollar holds firm as Trump walks back threat to remove Fed Chair Powell
The US Dollar (USD) gains positive traction on Thursday, recovering from a brief wobble late Wednesday after reports emerged that US President Donald Trump was considering firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar holds firm as US President Donald Trump walks back the threat to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.The US Dollar Index trades near three-week highs, buoyed by sticky inflation and stable Treasury yields.Technical breakout signals bullish momentum, with upside targets at 99.50 and the psychological 100.00 level.The US Dollar (USD) gains positive traction on Thursday, recovering from a brief wobble late Wednesday after reports emerged that US President Donald Trump was considering firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Market tensions eased after Trump walked back the threat, stating it was “highly unlikely” that he would dismiss Powell. Steady Treasury yields, sticky inflation signals, and hawkish expectations surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy path keep the Greenback in demand across major currency pairs.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading on the front foot near three-week highs during the European trading session. At the time of writing, the index is hovering around 98.74, up 0.45% on the day.Political interference in the Federal Reserve can create serious problems for financial markets. If Powell were removed, it could shake confidence in the Fed’s independence. A new chair might take a different approach to interest rates, possibly cutting them faster. This can shake confidence in the US Dollar and lead to higher volatility in Stocks and Bonds. Several top Wall Street executives have warned that if the Fed’s independence is weakened, it could harm the US economy in the long run and erode the US Dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.While recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures have shown signs of cooling, with June’s consumer prices rising at a slower pace and producer prices coming in flat month-over-month, the broader pricing trend remains sticky. Additionally, several Fed officials maintained a cautious tone on Wednesday, citing rising inflation risks tied to recent trade tariffs. This gives the Fed reason to hold off on rate cuts for now.Traders now turn their focus to upcoming US economic data scheduled for release on Thursday, including Retail Sales, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, for fresh clues on the Fed’s next move. The US Dollar also finds support from elevated Treasury yields and persistent global uncertainty, including renewed trade tensions and threats by President Trump, which could further fuel inflation and complicate the Fed’s policy outlook.Market Movers: Tariff tensions mount, inflation jumps and rate cuts priced outHeadline PPI was flat in June, showing no monthly growth, compared to the 0.2% increase markets had expected, and down from a 0.3% rise in May. The surprise softness was due to lower service costs, despite a slight rise in goods prices. On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 2.3%, also below the 2.5% forecast and the 2.6% reading from the previous month. The data suggests producer-level inflation remains under control, easing some concerns about tariff-driven price pressures. However, sticky core inflation keeps the Fed’s policy outlook tilted hawkish, limiting downside for the US Dollar.Consumer inflation in the US accelerated in June, with headline CPI rising 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY, both in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY. The data showed clear signs of tariff-related price pressure. The hotter-than-expected inflation print has sharply reduced the odds of a near-term Fed rate cut. Markets now price in just a 2.6% chance of easing in July and 55.8% for September, down from 70% last week.On Wednesday, New York Fed President John Williams warned that the full economic impact of the tariffs is just beginning, estimating they could add around 1 percentage point to inflation in the second half of 2025. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic echoed the concerns, noting that a growing share of consumer goods are showing price increases above 5%, suggesting underlying inflation may be picking up.President Trump signaled a tougher stance on trade on Wednesday, confirming that the 25% tariff on Japanese imports will remain in place. When asked about a potential deal, Trump responded, “I think we’ll probably live by the letter,” implying no agreement is likely in the near term. Trump also announced plans to send letters to over 150 smaller countries, warning that their tariff rates could be raised to 10% or 15%. He indicated that these countries "don't do much business" with the US and the new rates would be "the same for everyone, for that group."With the August 1 tariff deadline approaching, only the UK, Vietnam, and Indonesia have secured formal trade agreements with the United States, while China has reached only a “preliminary trade agreement.” The US is reportedly “very close” to finalizing an agreement with India and sees potential for a deal with the European Union (EU), though both remain under negotiation.The US Census Bureau is set to release June Retail Sales data on Thursday at 12:30 GMT, with economists expecting a rebound of 0.1% MoM, following a sharp -0.9% drop in May. Core Retail Sales, which exclude autos and gasoline, are forecast to increase by 0.3%, recovering from a 0.3% drop the previous month.Technical Analysis: DXY bulls regain control after falling wedge breakoutThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing early signs of a bullish reversal after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern that had capped price action for over two months. This breakout suggests that bearish momentum is weakening, and buyers are gradually regaining control. The index is now testing a key resistance zone around 98.70-98.80, which aligns with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A clear break and daily close above this zone could confirm bullish momentum and pave the way toward the 99.50 region, near the June 23 swing high, and possibly extend toward the psychological 100.00 level.On the downside, the 9-day EMA at 98.09 continues to act as dynamic short-term support, sloping upward and helping to cushion minor pullbacks. It also aligns with the former resistance-turned-support zone near 98.00-97.80. A break below this area could undermine bullish momentum and expose the index to a deeper retracement, with the next support seen near 97.50.Momentum indicators support the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising and hovers near 58 on the daily chart, indicating increasing buying interest without yet reaching overbought conditions. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains low at 12.30, implying the trend is still developing. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.1% Previous: -0.9% Source: US Census Bureau Why it matters to traders? Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
14:52 JPY is underperforming into this weekend’s upper house elections – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.6% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies amid broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.6% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies amid broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Trade data seem soft & credit rating risk is up"Japan’s June trade data disappointed, and an unexpected contraction in exports delivered a smaller than expected surplus. National CPI data are scheduled for release at 7:30pm and headline is expected to moderate from 3.5% y/y to 3.3% y/y.""Japan’s upper house election remains a core near-term risk for both the currency and the bond market, as market participants consider the fiscal implications of this weekend’s vote. Media are also reporting on local banks’ concerns about the country’s credit rating." "Fundamentally, yield spreads have shown remarkable stability over the past week or so, and movement in USD/JPY has largely followed the options market with a significant decline in the premium for protection against USD/JPY downside. USD/JPY’s technicals are bullish, and the renewed push above 148 resistance has shifted our focus to the 200 day MA (149.71)."
14:48 GBP a relative outperformer on labor data surprise – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is down only 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming all of its G10 peers into Thursday’s NA open. In the longer run, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is down only 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming all of its G10 peers into Thursday’s NA open. In the longer run, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.GBP outshines G10 peers after labor data surprise"The latest employment release was broadly positive, with an upside surprise in wage growth and a stronger than expected employment change. Labor data had been highlighted as a key concern by the BoE’s Gov. Bailey and a core consideration for the central bank’s policy stance. Markets are still pricing nearly one full 25bpt cut for the next meeting in August, but have softened their expectations for easing by year end.""The bull trend has faltered on this week’s break of the 50 day MA (1.3505), and the RSI’s plunge into (sub-50) bearish territory has been notable. Support appears to be holding around the late June low, in the upper 1.33s. We see near-term resistance at 1.3480."
14:42 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD approaches weekly lows at $3,320
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Thursday, weighed by a stronger US Dollar, with risk appetite subdued amid ongoing uncertainty about global trade and rumours about the resignation of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.The precious metal retreats from Monday’s highs at $3,375, but price action remains co
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The precious metal retreats from Monday’s highs at $3,375, but price action remains contained within previous ranges. Later today, the release of the US June Retail Sales data and weekly Jobless Claims might give further clues about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on consumption and employment, and give more guidance for the pair. Technical analysis: The $3,310-$3,320 is an important support areaThe XAU/USD technical picture remains messy. The daily chart shows a lack of clear bias, with the RSI wavering back and forth around the 50 level, and price action halfway through the last few months’ trading range.
A look at the 4-hour chart, however, reveals increasing downside pressure, although the pair remains above the support area at $3,310-$3,320, which contains the neckline of a double top at $3,375 and the bottom of the ascending wedge. A confirmation below here would increase pressure towards the July 9 low at $3,285 ahead of the June 29 low, at $3,245
On the flip side, a rebound from current levels would find resistance at the mentioned $3,375 July 14, 16 highs, and the wedge top, at 3,380, ahead of the June 18 and 23 highs, at the $3,400 area. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The precious metal retreats from Monday’s highs at $3,375, but price action remains contained within previous ranges. Later today, the release of the US June Retail Sales data and weekly Jobless Claims might give further clues about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on consumption and employment, and give more guidance for the pair. Technical analysis: The $3,310-$3,320 is an important support areaThe XAU/USD technical picture remains messy. The daily chart shows a lack of clear bias, with the RSI wavering back and forth around the 50 level, and price action halfway through the last few months’ trading range.
A look at the 4-hour chart, however, reveals increasing downside pressure, although the pair remains above the support area at $3,310-$3,320, which contains the neckline of a double top at $3,375 and the bottom of the ascending wedge. A confirmation below here would increase pressure towards the July 9 low at $3,285 ahead of the June 29 low, at $3,245
On the flip side, a rebound from current levels would find resistance at the mentioned $3,375 July 14, 16 highs, and the wedge top, at 3,380, ahead of the June 18 and 23 highs, at the $3,400 area. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
14:40 USD/JPY trades firmly around 148.70 ahead of Japan’s elections
The USD/JPY pair gains over 0.5% to near 148.70 on Thursday. The pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) demonstrates strength, following United States (US) President Donald Trump refuted to reports stating the dismissal of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell soon.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
14:35 EUR weak despite as-expected CPI – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Markets eye lack of progress on trade"The euro area’s final CPI release was in line with expectations, at 2.0% y/y and unchanged from the preliminary. The on-target inflation print offers little for the ECB as we look to next Thursday’s meeting where rates are widely expected to remain on hold." "Markets are still pricing in 25bpts of easing by year-end and we see this as a source of fundamental support for an ECB that appears to be comfortable at current (and likely terminal) levels. Progress on US/EU trade talks appears limited as media continue to report on the EU’s ‘anti-coercion instrument’ offering the ability to impose new taxes on US tech companies, target investment curbs in the US, and limit market access in the EU.""The recent bear reversal is worrisome and is threatening the multi-month bull trend from February. The RSI has fallen dramatically, from significantly overbought levels in the mid-70s to push below the neutral threshold at 50. We continue to highlight the importance of the 50 day MA (1.1492) and see near-term support closer to 1.1550. We look to near-term resistance in the mid-1.15s."
14:33 CAD slides back to mid-1.37s amid broader dollar rebound – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weaker, down nearly 0.5% on the session and retesting yesterday’s intraday low versus the USD in generally featureless trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weaker, down nearly 0.5% on the session and retesting yesterday’s intraday low versus the USD in generally featureless trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Canadian Dollar weakens as USD rebounds from sell-off"Risk appetite has strengthened in overnight markets and spreads are maintaining the narrowing trend that has taken the USD’s yield advantage at the 2Y sector of the curve back to its lowest since December (near 110bps), which is helping our fair value estimate for spot hold near 1.36 (1.3592 currently). The USD’s drift away from its equilibrium estimate persists, however, on the back of its broader recovery from yesterday’s hefty sell-off.""A snappy rebound from yesterday’s USD sell-off has extended USD gains to a marginal new, short-term high just above 1.3750. USD momentum is not particularly strong but nor is the USD rebound especially stretched. Spot is pressuring 50-day MA resistance (1.3738), which held on a daily close basis yesterday but a clearer push above 1.3750 will suggest a quick retest of the June high at 1.38. Support is 1.3650/75."
14:30 USD rebounds but Fed leadership remains in focus – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) and Treasurys have settled down after yesterday’s abrupt swings, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The US Dollar (USD) and Treasurys have settled down after yesterday’s abrupt swings, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.USD shakes off tumble on yesterday’s Fed news"President Trump apparently waved a draft letter firing Fed chair Powell in front of GOP lawmakers yesterday morning (and the White House briefed that the president would likely fire the Fed chair 'soon') only to later deny he was looking to terminate Powell after all. Perhaps the slump in the USD, Treasuries and US equities prompted a change of mind. That might not be the end of the matter. It would not be easy to fire Powell—a legal wrangle would certainly ensue—and securing congressional support for his successor’s nomination might not be straightforward." "There are also eleven other voting members on the FOMC that set policy along with the chair. Regardless, Powell’s term is up in May and one way or another, the risk of a pretty heavy, political thumb on the scales of US monetary policy sooner or later is something that markets will have to factor in and perhaps are already doing, given the continued widening in US inflation swaps and the steeper US yield curve."This represents another possible headwind for the USD in the coming months beyond already established trade and fiscal policy negatives. While the USD is broadly higher so far today, with the EUR slipping back and the AUD underperforming after weak employment data lifted chances of an RBA cut next month, US Retail Sales may look a little soft (on a drop in auto sales) and Wednesday’s market swings could help check the USD’s advance for now."
14:01 NZD: Signs of a resurgence in inflation – Commerzbank
Prices are rising faster again in New Zealand, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
Prices are rising faster again in New Zealand, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Market prices in almost three further interest rate cuts"According to monthly price data, which only covers part of the CPI basket but is a reliable indicator, prices rose significantly faster again in June. The full inflation data for the second quarter will not be published until Monday." "However, if the trend is confirmed, this could reinforce the impression that the central bank may have reached the end of its interest rate cycle, even though it struck a very dovish tone following its meeting last week." "The market continues to price in almost three further interest rate cuts by the middle of next year. However, I would be much more cautious and continue to expect only one further cut at most. But the NZD is likely to benefit little from this tighter monetary policy, as economic momentum remains weak."
14:00 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 7.1700 and 7.1920 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1700 and 7.1920 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1700 and 7.1920 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is expected to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected USD to 'edge higher' yesterday, we held the view that 'any advance is likely part of a higher range of 7.1720/7.1920.' USD then rose to 7.1908, plunged to a low of 7.1694, and then rebounded to close largely unchanged at 7.1805 (-0.03%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we expect range trading, most likely between 7.1700 and 7.1920." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our update from Monday (14 Jul, spot at 7.1730), we highlighted that USD 'is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920.' While USD rose to a high of 7.1908 yesterday, there has been no clear increase in momentum. In other words, we continue to hold the same view for now."
13:56 AUD: Cooling off or taking a breather? – Commerzbank
The Australian labour market appears to be cooling somewhat, which could give the Reserve Bank of Australia room to cut key interest rates again in August, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
The Australian labour market appears to be cooling somewhat, which could give the Reserve Bank of Australia room to cut key interest rates again in August, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Australia jobs data points to August RBA cut"With just 2,000 jobs added, the labour market fell short of analysts' expectations. And after just over 1,000 jobs were cut last month, there has been virtually no job growth in the last two months. To be fair, it must be said that April saw an extremely strong labour market, so this could still be a pause for breath. However, the unemployment rate also rose to 4.3%, its highest level in almost four years, although this was supported by a slight increase in the participation rate.""It is therefore too early to say whether this is really the beginning of a slowdown in the labour market or whether it is just another breather before another strong labour market report. However, I suspect that it should be enough to make the RBA's decision to cut interest rates in just under four weeks' time in August a little easier. The market has fully priced in this move, so the AUD should not be negatively affected."
13:52 USD/JPY: Likely to trade between 147.50 and 148.80 – UOB Group
Sharp fluctuations have resulted in a mixed outlook; US Dollar (USD) could continue to fluctuate against Japanese Yen (JPY), likely between 147.50 and 148.80.
Sharp fluctuations have resulted in a mixed outlook; US Dollar (USD) could continue to fluctuate against Japanese Yen (JPY), likely between 147.50 and 148.80. In the longer run, USD strength has paused for now; it is expected to trade in a range of 146.90/149.20, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD strength has paused for now24-HOUR VIEW: "Subsequent to the sharp rally in USD on Tuesday, we indicated the following yesterday: 'Conditions are deeply overbought, and today, while there is room for USD to rise further, a sustained break above 149.30 is unlikely.' We did not expect the volatile price movements, as after rising to a high of 149.18, USD plunged to 146.90 before snapping back up to close at 147.86 (-0.67%). The sharp fluctuations have resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, USD could continue to fluctuate, likely between 147.50 and 148.80. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive on USD early last week (see annotations in the chart below). After USD soared to a high of 149.01 two days ago, we pointed out yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 148.80) that 'although conditions remain overbought, strong momentum may continue to carry USD higher.' We added, 'the next level to monitor is 149.80 and to sustain the overbought momentum, USD must hold above 147.65 (‘strong resistance’ level).' We did not expect USD to plunge briefly to 146.90 and the subsequent sharp rebound. The breach of our ‘strong support’ level indicates USD strength has paused for now. From here, we expect USD to trade in a range of 146.90/149.20."
13:51 AUD/USD dives to three-week lows near 0.6560 after weak Australian employment data
The Australian Dollar is one of the weakest performers of the G8 currencies on Thursday, hammered by a disappointing Australian Employment report and the overall risk-averse market, which is boosting demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar.
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The AUD/USD is trading 0.95% lower so far today and nearly 1.5% down on the week so far. The risk-sensitive Aussie is suffering from a mix of global trade uncertainty, a rush for safety amid growing speculation about the fate of US Chairman Powell, and weak Australian labour data.Australian employment data boost hopes of another RBA cut Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.3% in June, its highest level in the last five years, against market expectations of a steady 4.1% reading.The same report showed that net employment increased by only 2K, falling well below the market consensus of a 20K increase. May’s data was revised up to a 1.1K decline from the previously estimated 2.5K drop.These figures have boosted investors' bets for further rate cuts after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next monetary policy meeting, due on t¡August 11 and 12, and have increased negative pressure on the AUD. Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate s.a. The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.3% Consensus: 4.1% Previous: 4.1% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive. Economic Indicator Employment Change s.a. The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2K Consensus: 20K Previous: -2.5K Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains buoyed by the risk-averse sentiment amid the growing uncertainty about the global trade outlook, and rumours about Fed Powell’s resignation. Later today, US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures will provide further guidance for US Dollar crosses.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains buoyed by the risk-averse sentiment amid the growing uncertainty about the global trade outlook, and rumours about Fed Powell’s resignation. Later today, US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures will provide further guidance for US Dollar crosses.
13:43 USD: Trump's rollercoaster ride – Commerzbank
Things got really exciting again yesterday afternoon. First, a major US media outlet reported that Donald Trump had told Republican lawmakers that he was going to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Things got really exciting again yesterday afternoon. First, a major US media outlet reported that Donald Trump had told Republican lawmakers that he was going to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Soon afterwards, Bloomberg quoted an unnamed White House official as saying that the dismissal was imminent. Other media outlets reported that Trump had presented a draft dismissal letter on Tuesday. These precise reports marked a new level of escalation. The US Dollar (USD) suffered significant losses, with EUR/USD breaking through the 1.17 level again, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Trump-Powell tensions rattle USD, then recede"However, as has often been the case recently, the excitement did not last long. Shortly before 6 p.m. German time, came the denial. Trump announced that he had no plans to fire Powell. He left himself an out, saying that if the investigation into the Fed's renovation revealed misconduct, he would consider dismissal; otherwise, he called it 'highly unlikely'. Following this news, the weakness of the USD disappeared as quickly as it had come.""Trump appears to be testing the limits of what he can do with regard to the Fed's independence. Although he blamed Republican parliamentarians for the escalation, he described himself as 'more conservative'. Still, he is doing everything he can to undermine Powell further. The verbal attacks are continuing to escalate, with Trump's entourage recently focusing on the Fed's renovation project and accusing Powell of fraud in this regard. Even if Trump ultimately refrains from dismissing Powell, he emphasised yesterday that he is only considering 'low interest rate' candidates for the position. This suggests that the Fed's monetary policy is likely to remain under pressure in the coming year, even without a formal dismissal.""Another point to note is that there were new developments overnight regarding the US president's second favourite topic: tariffs. Trump announced that he would impose a fixed tariff of 10 or 15% on goods from the remaining 150 countries that have not yet received a letter. This is slightly less than the 15–20% suggested last week. It remains to be seen how long these figures will hold this time."
13:27 Dow Jones futures trades broadly stable ahead of Netflix earnings, US-EU trade talks
Dow Jones futures trade quietly during the European trading session on Thursday. Financial market participants have sidelined, with investors await fresh cues on trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).
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Financial market participants have sidelined, with investors await fresh cues on trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).At the time of writing, Dow Jones futures are marginally down to near 44,200. S&P 500 futures trade almost flat around 6,270.On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signaled possibility of reaching a trade agreement with the EU, while expressing confidence that Washington is close to signing deal with India."We’re [Washington] very close to India, and we could possibly make a deal with the EU,” Trump said in an interview aired on Real America’s Voice, Reuters reported.Meanwhile, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic headed to Washington on Wednesday for next round of trade talks.On the domestic front, the release of Q1 corporate earnings from Netflix, PepsiCo., and GE Aerospace will be keenly watched by market participants.According to analysts at Vital Knowledge, the global streaming player will "put up very healthy results” as its dominance in the entertainment sector has “expanded”.US equities saw a steep fall on Wednesday after Reuters reported that President Trump received positive response from Republican lawmakers toward dismissing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. However, equity markets showed a V-Shape recovery when Trump refuted reports stating Powell’s immediate oust.During the European session, the US Dollar (USD) trades firmly as Fed officials have warned of de-anchoring inflation expectations, following the increase in prices of goods that are majorly imported by the US. This scenario could allow Fed officials to demand more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
13:19 NZD/USD: Likely to stay within the range of 0.5914/0.5969 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could remain volatile against US Dollar (USD), but it is likely to stay within yesterday’s range of 0.5914/0.5969.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could remain volatile against US Dollar (USD), but it is likely to stay within yesterday’s range of 0.5914/0.5969. In the longer run, NZD weakness is intact, but it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach June’s low, near 0.5885, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD weakness is intact24-HOUR VIEW: "Two days ago, we expected NZD to test the support at 0.5950. After NZD subsequently dropped to a low of 0.5939 and rebounded, we stated yesterday that 'the rebound in oversold conditions suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, NZD is more likely to consolidate in a range of 0.5935/0.5975.' Our view of consolidation turned out to be incorrect, as NZD dropped to a low of 0.5914, spiked to 0.5969 before dropping back down to close largely unchanged (0.5946, +0.02%). The choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, NZD could remain volatile, but it is likely to remain within yesterday’s range of 0.5914/0.5969." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 0.5955), we highlighted that 'while we continue to expect NZD to weaken, it may consolidate first before heading toward 0.5920.' We did not expect NZD to reach 0.5920 so soon, as it briefly dropped to a low of 0.5914. The weakness from early last week is intact, but it remains to be seen if NZD has enough momentum to reach June’s low, near 0.5885. Overall, only a breach of 0.5980 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.6005) would indicate that NZD is not weakening further."
13:04 EUR/GBP breakout signals Fresh upside – Société Générale
EUR/GBP has broken out of its recent consolidation range, confirming renewed bullish momentum. With technical indicators supportive, the pair now targets higher levels, provided key support at 0.8585 holds, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
EUR/GBP has broken out of its recent consolidation range, confirming renewed bullish momentum. With technical indicators supportive, the pair now targets higher levels, provided key support at 0.8585 holds, Société Générale's FX analysts note. EUR/GBP eyes April highs after breakout"EUR/GBP broke above the upper boundary of its recent base, signaling a resurgence in upward momentum. This is further supported by the daily MACD, which remains anchored in positive territory." "If a short-term pullback develops, last month's peak at 0.8585/0.8575 serves as a key support level. The next potential objectives could be located at the April high at 0.8725/0.8735 and projections near 0.8780."
13:01 GBP/JPY nears YTD highs at 199.80 as tariffs, political uncertainty hurt the Yen
The Pound has shrugged off the impact of the grim UK employment figures seen earlier today to rally against a weaker Japanese Yen, weighed by the increasing political uncertainty and lack of progress in the trade talks with the US.
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The JPY is suffering on Thursday as political uncertainty grows in Japan, following a poll that suggested Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition is likely to lose its majority in parliament after Sunday’s election.
The uncertain political scenario adds to investors’ anxiety about the lack of advances in the trade negotiations with the US, as the country’s exports decline for the second consecutive month. These figures pose a significant challenge for an economy strongly dependent on international trade.
The Japanese Yen’s weakness has offset the impact of the downbeat UK employment figures seen earlier today. Data from national Statistics revealed that the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.7% in June, against expectations. Claims for unemployment benefits declined to 25.9K, from last month’s 33.1K, but failed to meet the market consensus of a larger decline, to 17.9K. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.7% Consensus: 4.6% Previous: 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish. Economic Indicator Claimant Count Change The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 25.9K Consensus: 17.9K Previous: 33.1K Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
The JPY is suffering on Thursday as political uncertainty grows in Japan, following a poll that suggested Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition is likely to lose its majority in parliament after Sunday’s election.
The uncertain political scenario adds to investors’ anxiety about the lack of advances in the trade negotiations with the US, as the country’s exports decline for the second consecutive month. These figures pose a significant challenge for an economy strongly dependent on international trade.
The Japanese Yen’s weakness has offset the impact of the downbeat UK employment figures seen earlier today. Data from national Statistics revealed that the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.7% in June, against expectations. Claims for unemployment benefits declined to 25.9K, from last month’s 33.1K, but failed to meet the market consensus of a larger decline, to 17.9K. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.7% Consensus: 4.6% Previous: 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish. Economic Indicator Claimant Count Change The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 25.9K Consensus: 17.9K Previous: 33.1K Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
12:48 USD/JPY: Election risks dominate sentiments – OCBC
Recent poll by Nikkei, Kyodo, Asahi shows LDP-Komeito coalition is at risk of losing Upper House election. USD/JPY last seen at 148.67, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Recent poll by Nikkei, Kyodo, Asahi shows LDP-Komeito coalition is at risk of losing Upper House election. USD/JPY last seen at 148.67, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Tentative signs of turning lower near overbought conditions"A total of 125 seats are up for grabs in the July 20 election. These include half of the seats in the Diet chamber and one for the Tokyo electoral district that has become vacant. The coalition held 141 Upper House seats before the campaign started, and 66 are being contested. Securing 50 seats will give the coalition a majority of 125 in the Upper House (i.e. they can afford to lose 16 seats)." "Nevertheless, seats lost in the Upper House can affect Ishiba administration. On the contrary, if PM Ishiba manages to get past this election, then it will be another 3 years before the next major election in Japan (excluding the election for LDP President in 2027). For now, the struggle in the Upper House has resulted in pledges of spending hikes and tax cuts in attempt to shore up votes. Moody’s has earlier warned that election results may impact fiscal health and ratings." "This temporarily weighs on JPY. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while rise in RSI shows tentative signs of turning lower near overbought conditions. Next resistance at 149.40/70 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 147.15 (38.2% fibo), 146.20 levels."
12:45 USD: Focus returns to macro after Powell scare – ING
What are the market implications of a potential early departure of Fed Chair Powell? It's an unlikely scenario, but for an hour Wednesday afternoon it appeared very real.
What are the market implications of a potential early departure of Fed Chair Powell? It's an unlikely scenario, but for an hour Wednesday afternoon it appeared very real. It was initially reported that a letter had been prepared by Trump and presented to GOP policymakers, and at one point the White House confirmed Trump was about to fire Powell. Shortly after, Trump said it was 'unlikely' he would fire Powell, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Chances of USD consolidation or slight re-appreciation"In that hour, we saw the reaction we would have expected: a steepening in the US yield curve, and the dollar sharply lower. However, it never looked like markets fully priced in Powell’s exit yesterday afternoon. Pricing for a September Fed cut didn’t go beyond 20bp, and EUR/USD failed to get beyond 1.1720 even before Trump’s denial caused an unwinding of all market moves." "It’s a clear symptom of the resistance developed by markets for the rollercoaster of headlines that have characterised Trump’s term so far. After yesterday’s scare, the bar will be even higher to take Fed independence threats seriously.""On the macro side, PPI figures came in below expectations yesterday, but this failed to wash away Tuesday’s CPI reality check, which is keeping markets from pricing in more than 15bp for the Fed’s September meeting. Today’s US calendar highlights are retail sales data for June and TIC data for May. We’ll look closely at the latter to see if there is any hard evidence of a substantial rotation away from US Treasuries, which can feed into the longer-term bearish USD argument. But for the near term, we still like the chances of dollar consolidation or slight re-appreciation."
12:37 DXY: 50-DMA an interim top? – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) had its choppy momentum overnight following reports that President Trump had considered dismissing Fed Chair Powell – though these claims were later denied by the man himself. DXY was last at 98.68 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
US Dollar (USD) had its choppy momentum overnight following reports that President Trump had considered dismissing Fed Chair Powell – though these claims were later denied by the man himself. DXY was last at 98.68 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. US data continues to surprise to the upside"Moving away from the noise, US economic data continues to surprise to the upside. The latest Fed Beige Book, covering activity from late May to early July, indicated a slight uptick in overall economic activity. More notably, the report shed light on the impact of tariffs. All 12 Federal Reserve districts reported rising prices, with businesses facing 'modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs'." "Many firms responded by passing on part of these costs to consumers through price increases or surcharges. However, some opted to absorb the costs due to heightened price sensitivity among customers, leading to compressed profit margins. With core goods CPI already ticking higher, markets remain cautious about the inflationary effects of tariff passthrough. Any further evidence of price pressures could prompt a more hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, and this risks USD overshooting to the upside in the near term." "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near overbought conditions. Technically the recent upmove in DXY stalled at 50dma at 98.90 levels. This may well serve as interim resistance from a price action point of view. Failure to break above could point to exhaustion next and USD may well consolidate in 97.50 – 99 range. Other levels to watch: Resistance at 98.80 (50 DMA), 99.60 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 97.60/80 (21 DMA), 97.20 levels."
12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $37.78 per troy ounce, down 0.34% from the $37.91 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have increased by 30.76% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 37.78 1 Gram 1.21
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 88.09 on Thursday, down from 88.30 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 88.09 on Thursday, down from 88.30 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:30 AUD/USD: Resistance levels are at 0.6530 and 0.6550 – UOB Group
There is a chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to test 0.6480 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum; AUD is likely to edge lower to 0.6480, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
There is a chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to test 0.6480 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum; AUD is likely to edge lower to 0.6480, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Tentative buildup in momentum24-HOUR VIEW: "AUD fell sharply to a low of 0.6508 two days ago. In the early Asian session yesterday, when AUD was at 0.6520, we pointed out that 'the sharp drop looks overstretched, but there is a chance for AUD to test 0.6500.' We added, 'the major support at 0.6480 is unlikely to come into view, and resistance levels are at 0.6540 and 0.6555.' Our view was not wrong, as AUD dropped to a low of 0.6496 and then bounced to a high of 0.6554. AUD traded on a soft note in the early Asian trade today, and there is a chance for it test 0.6480. Based on the current momentum, AUD is unlikely to be able to break below 0.8480. Today’s resistance levels are at 0.6530 and 0.6550." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned mildly negative on AUD yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 0.6520), indicating that 'there has been a tentative buildup in momentum, and AUD is likely to edge lower to 0.6480.' We also indicated that 'to maintain the momentum buildup, AUD must hold below the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.6575.' There is no change in our view."
12:13 GBP: May's job drop heavily revised – ING
Last month, a surprise 109k fall in May UK payrolls opened the discussion on whether the Bank of England had to accelerate easing, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Last month, a surprise 109k fall in May UK payrolls opened the discussion on whether the Bank of England had to accelerate easing, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. The 0.870 level should work as a sturdier resistance for"That figure was revised massively today to just -25k. June added another 41k worth of job losses, which confirms a clear softening pattern, but the big revisions for May should take some heat off the BoE.""Wage growth is also still too high for the BoE's liking, though on a 3M annualised basis, private sector pay is rising at 3.6%, which is better than the year-on-year numbers indicate and is lower than we saw much of last year.""EUR/GBP reaction to the data has been modestly negative, but given the bar for a BoE dovish repricing is now higher, the 0.870 level should work as a sturdier resistance."
12:05 Spain 5-y Bond Auction increased to 2.479% from previous 2.386%
Spain 5-y Bond Auction increased to 2.479% from previous 2.386%
12:02 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.4% in June
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.4% in June
12:01 GBP/USD: View is still negative – UOB Group
The current price movements are likely part of a 1.3360/1.3460 consolidation phase. In the longer run, GBP view is still negative; the next technical target at 1.3320 may not come into view so soon, as it could consolidate first, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The current price movements are likely part of a 1.3360/1.3460 consolidation phase. In the longer run, GBP view is still negative; the next technical target at 1.3320 may not come into view so soon, as it could consolidate first, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a 1.3360/1.346024-HOUR VIEW: "While we indicated yesterday that 'there is room for GBP to weaken further', we pointed out that 'any decline is likely part of a lower range of 1.3360/1.3445.' The subsequent price movements did not turn out as we expected. After dipping to a low of 1.3366, GBP popped to a high of 1.3485 before dropping back down to close at 1.3418 (+0.25%). Despite the sharp fluctuations, the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. Expected range for today: 1.3360/1.3460." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted the following yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.3395): 'We maintain our negative GBP view, even though the next technical target at 1.3320 may not come into view so soon – short-term oversold conditions could lead to consolidation first. On the upside, should GBP break above 1.3500 (‘strong resistance’), it would mean that the weakness in GBP has stabilised.' Our view still stands."
12:01 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in June
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in June
12:00 EUR/JPY clings to gains near mid-172.00s, remains close to YTD peak amid a weaker JPY
The EUR/JPY cross regains positive traction following the previous day's turnaround from the 173.25 area or a fresh one-year peak and sticks to its intraday gains through the first half of the European session on Thursday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY attracts some dip-buyers and reverses the overnight pullback from a one-year top.Reduced BoJ rate hike bets and domestic political uncertainty continue to undermine the JPY.Resurgent USD demand weighs on the Euro, albeit doing little to hinder the pair’s move up.The EUR/JPY cross regains positive traction following the previous day's turnaround from the 173.25 area or a fresh one-year peak and sticks to its intraday gains through the first half of the European session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around mid-172.00s, up 0.20% for the day, and remain well supported by the prevalent selling bias surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY).Data released earlier today showed that Japan clocked a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in June as exports fell for the second straight month amid persistent headwinds from US trade tariffs. This comes on top of slowing economic growth, declining real wages, and signs of cooling inflation in Japan, which could complicate the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy normalization path. Apart from this, domestic political uncertainty has been a key factor behind the JPY's relative underperformance and lending support to the EUR/JPY cross. Meanwhile, recent polls indicate that Japan’s ruling coalition – the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito – might lose its majority in the Upper House election on July 20. The outcome could further heighten both fiscal and political risks in Japan and also complicate trade negotiations amid the looming US trade tariffs. In fact, US President Donald Trump issued notices to key trading partners last week, including Japan, which faces a punishing 25% tariff on exports to America amid stalled US-Japan trade talks.Apart from this, reduced safe-haven demand is seen as another factor undermining the JPY's safe-haven status and acting as a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross. The intraday move higher seems rather unaffected by the emergence of fresh selling around the shared currency, pressured by a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the spot prices is to the upside as the market focus now shifts to Japan's National CPI report on Friday. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.35% 0.08% 0.49% 0.45% 0.88% 0.40% 0.33% EUR -0.35% -0.26% 0.12% 0.13% 0.55% 0.08% 0.00% GBP -0.08% 0.26% 0.42% 0.36% 0.79% 0.31% 0.25% JPY -0.49% -0.12% -0.42% -0.09% 0.35% -0.09% -0.17% CAD -0.45% -0.13% -0.36% 0.09% 0.51% -0.06% -0.12% AUD -0.88% -0.55% -0.79% -0.35% -0.51% -0.57% -0.55% NZD -0.40% -0.08% -0.31% 0.09% 0.06% 0.57% -0.07% CHF -0.33% -0.00% -0.25% 0.17% 0.12% 0.55% 0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with expectations (0.3%) in June
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with expectations (0.3%) in June
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in June
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in June
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.4%, above expectations (2.3%) in June
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.4%, above expectations (2.3%) in June
11:59 AUD/USD: Corrective pullback on the daily chart – OCBC
Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped amid downside surprise to labour market data – from multiple aspects. AUD was last at 0.6472, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped amid downside surprise to labour market data – from multiple aspects. AUD was last at 0.6472, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks skewed to the downside"Employment change was +2k (vs. +20k expectations) while full time fell again -38.2k. Markets add to RBA rate cut profile -64bps for remainder of the year (vs. -56bps) while market continues to expect RBA to cut at the next MPC on 12 August." "Daily momentum turned mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside in the interim. Support at 0.6420 (50% fibo retracement of 2024 high to 2025 low). Resistance at 0.6530/50 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo)."
11:57 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction up to 3.303% from previous 3.163%
Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction up to 3.303% from previous 3.163%
11:57 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.1580 and 1.1680 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1580 and 1.1680 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, EUR weakness appears to have stabilised; for the time being it is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1550/1.1720, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1580 and 1.1680 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, EUR weakness appears to have stabilised; for the time being it is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1550/1.1720, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR weakness appears to have stabilised24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR plummeted to a low of 1.1590 two days ago. Yesterday, we stated that 'the sharp drop appears overdone, and EUR is unlikely to weaken much further.' We expected EUR to 'consolidate in a range of 1.1580/1.1650.' Instead of consolidating, EUR swung wildly between 1.1561 and 1.1721 before settling at 1.1634 (+0.30%). Barring any unexpected developments, EUR is likely to trade with reduced volatility today, expected to be between 1.1580 and 1.1680." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have viewed EUR negatively since early last week. Yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.1610), we indicated that the recent “the price action continues to suggest downside risk in EUR, and the next level to monitor is 1.1550.” We added, “only a breach of 1.1705 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the weakness has stabilised. EUR briefly spiked above 1.1705 in the NY session (high of 1.1721) before dropping back down to close at 1.1634 (+0.30%). The EUR weakness appears to have stabilised, and for the time being, it is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1550/1.1720. That said, after this phase of consolidation, a move below the range appears more likely than a break above."
11:54 EUR/USD: French budget may weigh on the Euro – OCBC
Euro (EUR) continued to stay under pressure and fell amid broad US Dollar (USD) strength. Pair was last at 1.1600, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Euro (EUR) continued to stay under pressure and fell amid broad US Dollar (USD) strength. Pair was last at 1.1600, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. PM Bayrou may face a no-confidence motion"French PM Bayrou outlined his first budget yesterday, proposing to freeze most public spending, scrapping 2 public holidays (Easter Monday and end of WW2 in Europe) but defence spending will increase. French budget deficit was 5.8% of GDP (almost double EU’s official limit of 3%). The proposal met with disagreement from the left-wing parties and far-right party." "Detailed budget bill is likely to go to parliament in October and failure to convince opposition parties to support his proposal is more likely than not to see PM Bayrou face a no-confidence motion then. To recap, a similar no-confidence motion saw the exit of former PM Barnier last year. This is one risk to watch for implication on EUR.""Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI nears oversold conditions. Risks somewhat skewed to the downside. Next support at 1.1540, 1.1490 levels (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.1680 (21 DMA), 1.1830 levels. We look for opportunity on dips to buy into."
11:49 WTI remains below $65.50 despite improved demand outlook
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losing streak for the fourth successive day, trading around $65.30 during the European hours on Thursday. However, crude Oil prices gained ground due to upbeat economic data, released recently from the largest Oil consumers.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price dips slightly despite an improved demand outlook, supported by upbeat economic data from major consumers.The latest Fed Beige Book indicates that overall business activity saw a slight increase from late May through early June.China’s economy slowed in the second quarter, but the deceleration was less severe than expected.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losing streak for the fourth successive day, trading around $65.30 during the European hours on Thursday. However, crude Oil prices gained ground due to upbeat economic data, released recently from the largest Oil consumers.The latest Fed Beige Book shows that overall business activity increased slightly from late May through early June. The report mentioned that inflation pressures are relatively subdued, but underlying cost pressures are building, and business operators remain cautious. However, the outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic, as only two districts expected activity to increase, and others foresaw flat or slightly weaker activity.Meanwhile, data from China showed that economic growth slowed in the second quarter, but not as sharply as feared, partly due to front-loading ahead of US tariffs. This helped ease concerns about the health of the world’s largest crude Oil importer. Additionally, China’s crude Oil throughput rose 8.5% year-over-year in June, suggesting stronger crude demand.Additionally, Oil prices may gain ground amid easing trade tensions between the United States (US) and China following US President Donald Trump’s lifting the ban on the sale of AI chips to China, along with the announcement of a trade deal with Indonesia. Trump also expressed optimism about potential trade agreements with India and Europe, Reuters cited John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.Oil prices gained ground as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude inventories fell by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending on July 11, surpassing the expected decline of 1.8 million barrels. However, gains were limited by larger-than-expected gasoline and diesel inventories. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
11:45 EUR: EU budget has long-term EUR implications – ING
Aside from the very brief spike induced by Powell removal speculation yesterday, EUR/USD looks rather comfortable trading in the low 1.16s.
Aside from the very brief spike induced by Powell removal speculation yesterday, EUR/USD looks rather comfortable trading in the low 1.16s. That’s despite USD short-term swap rates trading some 4-5bp below yesterday’s peak, as risks of the new Fed Chair being an ultra-dove increased, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Risks are balanced for EUR/USD"Anything EU-related appears to be playing second fiddle to EUR/USD. We discussed yesterday how French political noise can return in the autumn and generate some FX spillover, but for now it’s not showing any tangible impact on FX. On the broader EU level, the European Commission has proposed a €2tr increase in the EU budget, which has already been rejected by Germany." "There’s a long period of negotiations ahead as Ursula von der Leyen aims to gather a unanimous consensus on the budget increase by 2027. We’ll hear a lot about this along the way, and the implications for the long-term value of the euro are non-negligible. Moribund eurozone productivity relative to the US has contributed to keeping the medium-term EUR/USD fair value capped in the past decade.""Back to the short term, we think risks are balanced for EUR/USD and heavily US data dependent. In the coming weeks, we think a move to 1.150 looks more likely than 1.170."
11:39 US Dollar Index (DXY) approaches multi-week highs at 98.44 in risk-off markets
The US Dollar is outperforming its main rivals on Thursday, supported by risk-averse markets amid growing anxiety about trade tariffs and the ongoing pressures on Fed Chairman Powell, which have boosted speculation about his resignation.
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These tensions are so far supporting the US Dollar, although a potential resignation from Powell and his replacement with a candidate with a more dovish agenda might lead to higher inflation and the erosion of investors’ confidence in the US financial system, with very negative consequences for the Dollar.
In the macroeconomic domain, US PPI data showed some moderation on factory gate inflation, which eased concerns triggered by the higher CPI numbers seen on Tuesday. Today, the focus will be on June’s Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless claims, which will provide further insight into the impact of tariffs on consumption and the labour market. Economic Indicator Initial Jobless Claims The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. A larger-than-expected number indicates weakness in the US labor market, reflects negatively on the US economy, and is negative for the US Dollar (USD). On the other hand, a decreasing number should be taken as bullish for the USD. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Weekly Consensus: 235K Previous: 227K Source: US Department of Labor Why it matters to traders? Every Thursday, the US Department of Labor publishes the number of previous week’s initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Since this reading could be highly volatile, investors may pay closer attention to the four-week average. A downtrend is seen as a sign of an improving labour market and could have a positive impact on the USD’s performance against its rivals and vice versa.
Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.1% Previous: -0.9% Source: US Census Bureau Why it matters to traders? Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
These tensions are so far supporting the US Dollar, although a potential resignation from Powell and his replacement with a candidate with a more dovish agenda might lead to higher inflation and the erosion of investors’ confidence in the US financial system, with very negative consequences for the Dollar.
In the macroeconomic domain, US PPI data showed some moderation on factory gate inflation, which eased concerns triggered by the higher CPI numbers seen on Tuesday. Today, the focus will be on June’s Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless claims, which will provide further insight into the impact of tariffs on consumption and the labour market. Economic Indicator Initial Jobless Claims The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. A larger-than-expected number indicates weakness in the US labor market, reflects negatively on the US economy, and is negative for the US Dollar (USD). On the other hand, a decreasing number should be taken as bullish for the USD. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Weekly Consensus: 235K Previous: 227K Source: US Department of Labor Why it matters to traders? Every Thursday, the US Department of Labor publishes the number of previous week’s initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Since this reading could be highly volatile, investors may pay closer attention to the four-week average. A downtrend is seen as a sign of an improving labour market and could have a positive impact on the USD’s performance against its rivals and vice versa.
Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.1% Previous: -0.9% Source: US Census Bureau Why it matters to traders? Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
11:05 Forex Today: US Dollar regains traction ahead of mid-tier data releases
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 17:
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Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 17:Following Wednesday's volatile action, the US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals early Thursday. In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and the Retail Sales report for June. Later in the American session, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.67% 0.80% 1.01% 0.31% 1.53% 1.47% 0.81% EUR -0.67% 0.10% 0.34% -0.38% 0.82% 0.78% 0.12% GBP -0.80% -0.10% 0.18% -0.47% 0.73% 0.68% 0.17% JPY -1.01% -0.34% -0.18% -0.59% 0.50% 0.49% -0.17% CAD -0.31% 0.38% 0.47% 0.59% 1.21% 1.16% 0.51% AUD -1.53% -0.82% -0.73% -0.50% -1.21% -0.07% -0.70% NZD -1.47% -0.78% -0.68% -0.49% -1.16% 0.07% -0.65% CHF -0.81% -0.12% -0.17% 0.17% -0.51% 0.70% 0.65% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Citing multiple sources with direct knowledge of the matter, CBS News reported on Wednesday that United States (US) President Donald Trump asked Republican lawmakers whether he should fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. With the immediate reaction to this headline, the USD came under renewed bearish pressure and the USD Index closed in the red to snap a four-day winning streak. Later in the day, Trump noted that they were very close to a trade agreement with India and added that a deal could also be reached with Europe. Early Thursday, the USD Index gains about 0.5% on the day at around 98.70 and US stock index futures trade mixed.The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported in the European morning on Thursday that the ILO Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.7% in the three months to May from 4.6%. Other details of the report showed that Employment Change was up 134,000 in this period, compared to the 89,000 increase recorded previously. Following a quiet Asian session, GBP/USD edges lower after this report and trades below 1.3400.EUR/USD stays on the back foot after posting modest gains on Wednesday and fluctuates below 1.1600. The Eurostat will release revisions to June Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices data later in the session.The data from Australia showed that earlier in the day that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% in June from 4.1%. The Full-Time Employment declined by 38.2K in this period. AUD/USD stays under heavy selling pressure following the disappointing employment report and trades at its lowest level in three weeks near 0.6460, losing about 1% on the day.After registering large losses on Wednesday, USD/JPY reverses its direction and gains more than 0.5% on the day at around 148.70 on Thursday. Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki reiterated that he is concerned about the foreign exchange market movements, including speculative moves.Gold benefited from falling US Treasury bond yields and closed in positive territory on Wednesday. XAU/USD struggles to hold its ground early Thursday and trades below $3,330. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
11:03 USD/CAD nears three-week highs at 1.3750 as the US Dollar rallies on risk aversion
The US Dollar is retracing previous losses against the Canadian Dollar on Thursday, with markets averse to risk amid rising speculation that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be forced to resign under pressure from US President Trump.Trump said that the possibility of firing the Fed chairman is “highl
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Trump said that the possibility of firing the Fed chairman is “highly unlikely,” but he admitted to having discussed the possibility with Republican policymakers before stating that he would like him to resign.
Shortly afterwards, he mentioned the possibility of ousting him on fraud charges related to a USD 2.5 billion renovation plan for the central bank’s headquarters, which left investors wondering about the future of the Fed chief.
The unprecedented standoff between a US President and the Fed chairman has boosted risk aversion, so far supporting the safe-haven US Dollar.
Beyond that, US Producer Prices Index data revealed that inflationary pressures at factory gates stalled in May, while the yearly inflation moderated to 2.3% from May’s 2.6%. These figures soothed fears of another inflationary cycle, triggered by Tuesday’s CPI data.
The Canadian Dollar remains on the back foot after Trump set a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, which adds to a 50% levy on Steel and aluminium, while the negotiations for a better deal seem stalled.
Beyond that, Crude prices, Canada’s main export, remain depressed close to the $65.00 level, 3.5% down on the week and more than 15% below late June highs, which adds negative pressure on the CAD. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Trump said that the possibility of firing the Fed chairman is “highly unlikely,” but he admitted to having discussed the possibility with Republican policymakers before stating that he would like him to resign.
Shortly afterwards, he mentioned the possibility of ousting him on fraud charges related to a USD 2.5 billion renovation plan for the central bank’s headquarters, which left investors wondering about the future of the Fed chief.
The unprecedented standoff between a US President and the Fed chairman has boosted risk aversion, so far supporting the safe-haven US Dollar.
Beyond that, US Producer Prices Index data revealed that inflationary pressures at factory gates stalled in May, while the yearly inflation moderated to 2.3% from May’s 2.6%. These figures soothed fears of another inflationary cycle, triggered by Tuesday’s CPI data.
The Canadian Dollar remains on the back foot after Trump set a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, which adds to a 50% levy on Steel and aluminium, while the negotiations for a better deal seem stalled.
Beyond that, Crude prices, Canada’s main export, remain depressed close to the $65.00 level, 3.5% down on the week and more than 15% below late June highs, which adds negative pressure on the CAD. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
10:57 Pound Sterling declines against US Dollar after UK employment data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading below 1.3400, as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics has reported mixed employment data.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling declines against the US Dollar on mixed UK employment data for the three-months ending May.UK wage growth slowed down, as expected, and the ILO Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.7%.US President Trump denied reports stating that he will fire Fed’s Powell soon.The Pound Sterling (GBP) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading below 1.3400, as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics has reported mixed employment data. The report showed that the number of workers added by employers in the three-months ending May came in higher at 134K than the prior reading of 89K. However, the ILO Unemployment Rate has increased to 4.7%, above expectations and the prior reading of 4.6%.Investors were anticipating a weak set of employment numbers as the latest survey from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade body and accountants KPMG signaled that the availability of individuals for jobs has increased significantly.The hiring had been slowed down in recent months as business owners were offsetting the impact of an increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Autumn Statement.Average Earnings (Excluding and Including) bonuses rose by 5% on year, majorly in line with market expectations, but have slowed down from readings seen in the three-months ending April.Easing Average Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to offer slight relief to Bank of England (BoE) officials, who have become worried about the inflation outlook, following the release of the hotter-than-projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. The report showed that both headline and the core CPI rose at a faster pace on year to 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.51% 0.30% 0.51% 0.33% 0.90% 0.54% 0.47% EUR -0.51% -0.21% -0.02% -0.15% 0.41% 0.06% -0.01% GBP -0.30% 0.21% 0.24% 0.03% 0.60% 0.26% 0.18% JPY -0.51% 0.02% -0.24% -0.23% 0.34% 0.03% -0.05% CAD -0.33% 0.15% -0.03% 0.23% 0.65% 0.22% 0.14% AUD -0.90% -0.41% -0.60% -0.34% -0.65% -0.43% -0.42% NZD -0.54% -0.06% -0.26% -0.03% -0.22% 0.43% -0.07% CHF -0.47% 0.01% -0.18% 0.05% -0.14% 0.42% 0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling weakens against US DollarThe Pound Sterling is down 0.25% against the US Dollar on Thursday, trading close to an almost two-month low around 1.3360. The GBP/USD pair is under pressure due to deteriorating UK labor market conditions and a firm US Dollar.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.5% higher to near 98.80.The US Dollar gains as United States (US) President Donald Trump has denied reports stating that he will fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. However, Trump continued to criticize him for not lowering interest rates.US President Trump acknowledged in an interview with the Real America’s Voice network on Wednesday that Powell’s dismissal by him could cause upheaval in markets. "I’d love if he wants to resign, that would be up to him. They say it would disrupt the market if I did," Trump said.The report from Reuters on Wednesday stating that Trump received a positive response after polling some Republican lawmakers on firing Powell led to a sharp decline in the US Dollar and US equity markets.Meanwhile, comments from a couple of Fed officials pointing to de-anchoring consumer inflation expectations have also strengthened the US Dollar. New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President John Williams and Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic warned that the impact of tariffs on inflation has just started building up, and it will accelerate going ahead.“It's early days for impact of tariffs on economy, which is modest so far but will increase over time,” New York Fed Bank President John Williams said in a speech at the New York Association for Business Economics on Wednesday. He warned that tariffs should boost inflation by “one percentage point rest of 2025 into 2026”.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Retail Sales data, a key indicator of consumer spending, for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The consumer spending measure is expected to have grown by 0.1% after declining 0.9% in May.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling trades below 1.3400The Pound Sterling declines to near 1.3370 against the US Dollar, the lowest level in almost two months. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair is bearish as it trades below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 1.3525 and 1.3470, respectively.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates below 40.00, indicating a strong bearish momentum.Looking down, the May 12 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 11 high around 1.3585 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:56 EUR/USD approaches multi-week lows as markets digest the Powell-Trump drama
The EUR/USD pair is trading lower on Thursday, with investors averse to risk after a turbulent US session on Wednesday as tensions between US President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell escalated.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Euro dives further as the safe-haven US Dollar outperforms amid a strong risk-off mood.Speculation about the resignation of Fed Chair Powell rattled markets and triggered a rush for safety on Wednesday.EUR/USD approaches multi-week lows at 1.1565 ahead of the Eurozone Inflation report.The EUR/USD pair is trading lower on Thursday, with investors averse to risk after a turbulent US session on Wednesday as tensions between US President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell escalated. The safe-haven Dollar is outperforming its peers on Thursday, with investors awaiting Eurozone inflation and US Retail Sales data.
The Euro (EUR) extended losses on Thursday's European session opening, reaching session lows at 1.1575 at the time of writing, nearing three-week lows at 1.1565. The broader trend remains bearish, with price action trading at the bottom of the downtrend channel from July 1 highs at 1.1830.
US President Trump calmed traders on Wednesday, stating that he does not plan to fire Powell, as it would disrupt the market. However, he added that he would like him to resign, a possibility later denied by a Federal Reserve spokesperson. Trump also suggested the possibility of dismissing the Fed chief due to the overrun costs of the central bank's historic building in Washington, potentially on fraud charges.
The ongoing tensions between Trump and Powell have raised speculation that the Fed Chairman might be replaced by a more dovish one, which would bring higher inflation and, highly likely, erode investors' confidence in the independence of the central bank and, more broadly, in the US financial system.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Producer Price Index showed moderate inflation pressures, which alleviated fears from the hot CPI figures seen the previous day. On Thursday, the focus is on the Eurozone's consumer inflation report and the US Retail Sales figures to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on consumption.
Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.42% 0.23% 0.55% 0.31% 0.81% 0.52% 0.40% EUR -0.42% -0.19% 0.12% -0.08% 0.41% 0.13% 0.00% GBP -0.23% 0.19% 0.32% 0.08% 0.58% 0.29% 0.17% JPY -0.55% -0.12% -0.32% -0.29% 0.21% -0.04% -0.17% CAD -0.31% 0.08% -0.08% 0.29% 0.58% 0.20% 0.09% AUD -0.81% -0.41% -0.58% -0.21% -0.58% -0.38% -0.42% NZD -0.52% -0.13% -0.29% 0.04% -0.20% 0.38% -0.12% CHF -0.40% -0.00% -0.17% 0.17% -0.09% 0.42% 0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Euro wavers in range ahead of Eurozone CPI and US retail sales dataThe highlight during the European session is June's Eurozone CPI report, which is expected to confirm preliminary figures that revealed a 2% year-on-year growth, up from May's 1.9%. The Core CPI was reported at 2.3% year-on-year in the preliminary reading, unchanged from May. In the US, Retail Sales are expected to have increased 0.1% in June, following a 0.9% contraction in May. Excluding automobiles, sales of all other products are seen increasing 0.3% after a 0.3% contraction in May. Beyond that, US Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 235K from the previous week's 227K. The US Dollar needs low claims and strong consumption data to ease tariff concerns and endorse Fed Powell's "higher for longer" stance on interest rates.On Wednesday, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the US Producer Price Index stalled in June, with the year-on-year rate easing to a 2.3% growth from 2.6% in May. Likewise, the Core PPI was flat on the month and the yearly rate moderated to 2.6% from the previous month's 3% reading. These figures calmed fears of an inflation revival, which were triggered by Tuesday's CPI report.Also on Wednesday, data from the Eurozone showed that the region's trade surplus widened well beyond expectations in May, increasing to EUR16.2 billion from EUR9.9 billion in the previous month, and beating expectations of a more moderate EUR13 billion surplus.Italian CPI data has shown that inflation accelerated to 1.8% in the last 12 months to June, from the previous 1.7%. These figures are still below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, and therefore, the impact on the Euro has been marginal.EUR/USD is at a key support area above 1.1565EUR/USD is resuming its broader bearish trend in the early European session on Thursday. The pair is testing the support area between the support trendline, now at 1.1575, and Wednesday's low at 1.1565. The 4-hour RSI is low but not yet at oversold levels, which suggests that further depreciation is likely. Further down, the Euro might find support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late June bullish run at 1.1535, in the area where bulls were capped on June 20. Below here, the June 19 and 23 lows at around 1.1455 seem too far a target for today.
On the upside, resistances are at the previous support area 1.1655 (July 11, 14 lows) and now turned resistance. Further up, there is the channel's top at 1.1680 and the July 14 and 15 highs right below 1.1700. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The Euro (EUR) extended losses on Thursday's European session opening, reaching session lows at 1.1575 at the time of writing, nearing three-week lows at 1.1565. The broader trend remains bearish, with price action trading at the bottom of the downtrend channel from July 1 highs at 1.1830.
US President Trump calmed traders on Wednesday, stating that he does not plan to fire Powell, as it would disrupt the market. However, he added that he would like him to resign, a possibility later denied by a Federal Reserve spokesperson. Trump also suggested the possibility of dismissing the Fed chief due to the overrun costs of the central bank's historic building in Washington, potentially on fraud charges.
The ongoing tensions between Trump and Powell have raised speculation that the Fed Chairman might be replaced by a more dovish one, which would bring higher inflation and, highly likely, erode investors' confidence in the independence of the central bank and, more broadly, in the US financial system.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Producer Price Index showed moderate inflation pressures, which alleviated fears from the hot CPI figures seen the previous day. On Thursday, the focus is on the Eurozone's consumer inflation report and the US Retail Sales figures to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on consumption.
Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.42% 0.23% 0.55% 0.31% 0.81% 0.52% 0.40% EUR -0.42% -0.19% 0.12% -0.08% 0.41% 0.13% 0.00% GBP -0.23% 0.19% 0.32% 0.08% 0.58% 0.29% 0.17% JPY -0.55% -0.12% -0.32% -0.29% 0.21% -0.04% -0.17% CAD -0.31% 0.08% -0.08% 0.29% 0.58% 0.20% 0.09% AUD -0.81% -0.41% -0.58% -0.21% -0.58% -0.38% -0.42% NZD -0.52% -0.13% -0.29% 0.04% -0.20% 0.38% -0.12% CHF -0.40% -0.00% -0.17% 0.17% -0.09% 0.42% 0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Euro wavers in range ahead of Eurozone CPI and US retail sales dataThe highlight during the European session is June's Eurozone CPI report, which is expected to confirm preliminary figures that revealed a 2% year-on-year growth, up from May's 1.9%. The Core CPI was reported at 2.3% year-on-year in the preliminary reading, unchanged from May. In the US, Retail Sales are expected to have increased 0.1% in June, following a 0.9% contraction in May. Excluding automobiles, sales of all other products are seen increasing 0.3% after a 0.3% contraction in May. Beyond that, US Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 235K from the previous week's 227K. The US Dollar needs low claims and strong consumption data to ease tariff concerns and endorse Fed Powell's "higher for longer" stance on interest rates.On Wednesday, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the US Producer Price Index stalled in June, with the year-on-year rate easing to a 2.3% growth from 2.6% in May. Likewise, the Core PPI was flat on the month and the yearly rate moderated to 2.6% from the previous month's 3% reading. These figures calmed fears of an inflation revival, which were triggered by Tuesday's CPI report.Also on Wednesday, data from the Eurozone showed that the region's trade surplus widened well beyond expectations in May, increasing to EUR16.2 billion from EUR9.9 billion in the previous month, and beating expectations of a more moderate EUR13 billion surplus.Italian CPI data has shown that inflation accelerated to 1.8% in the last 12 months to June, from the previous 1.7%. These figures are still below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, and therefore, the impact on the Euro has been marginal.EUR/USD is at a key support area above 1.1565EUR/USD is resuming its broader bearish trend in the early European session on Thursday. The pair is testing the support area between the support trendline, now at 1.1575, and Wednesday's low at 1.1565. The 4-hour RSI is low but not yet at oversold levels, which suggests that further depreciation is likely. Further down, the Euro might find support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late June bullish run at 1.1535, in the area where bulls were capped on June 20. Below here, the June 19 and 23 lows at around 1.1455 seem too far a target for today.
On the upside, resistances are at the previous support area 1.1655 (July 11, 14 lows) and now turned resistance. Further up, there is the channel's top at 1.1680 and the July 14 and 15 highs right below 1.1700. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
10:55 USD/CHF maintains position near 0.8050 despite improved Swiss Trade Balance data
USD/CHF appreciates around 0.50% despite an improved Swiss Trade Balance released on Thursday, trading around 0.8040 during the European hours. Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF 4.3 billion in June, nearly doubling from a CHF 2.2 billion surplus in May.
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Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF 4.3 billion in June, nearly doubling from a CHF 2.2 billion surplus in May. Exports rose 8.6% month-over-month to CHF 23 billion, while imports declined 1.5% to CHF 18.7 billion.Traders expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to delay further easing of monetary policy following the recent Swiss inflation report for June. Earlier this month, the annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up 0.1%, while the monthly CPI increased 0.2%. SNB officials are expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0% in September, with many analysts projecting it will likely stay at that level through 2026.The USD/CHF pair also draws support from a stronger US Dollar (USD), driven by rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting. This comes following the hotter-than-expected June inflation figures from the United States (US). US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.7% year-over-year in June, as expected. Core CPI rose 2.9%, though below the 3.0% forecast, but still notably above the Fed’s 2% target.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday that the Fed will probably need to leave interest rates where they are for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low in the face of upward pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs. Moreover, New York Fed President John Williams said late Wednesday that monetary policy is in the right place to allow the Fed to monitor the economy before taking its next decision. Economic Indicator Trade Balance The Trade Balance released by the Federal Customs Administration is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. Generally speaking, if a steady demand in exchange for Swiss exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CHF. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 5,790M Consensus: - Previous: 3,831M Source: Federal Customs Administration of Switzerland
10:26 GBP/JPY holds gains around 199.00 following UK employment data
GBP/JPY retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 199.00 during the early European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger despite mixed employment figures from the United Kingdom (UK).
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The currency cross remains stronger despite mixed employment figures from the United Kingdom (UK).The UK ILO Unemployment climbed to 4.7% in the three months to May, against the market expectations of remaining unchanged at 4.6%. Meanwhile, the Employment Change came in at 134K, against the 89K in April. Claimant Count Change showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased 25.9K in June, compared with a revised increase of 15.3K in May, above the expected 17.9K figure.The GBP/JPY cross also draws support as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles following disappointing trade figures that fueled concerns about a potential technical recession. Meanwhile, investors are watching for potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the July 20 Upper House election, amid speculation about increased government spending and a possible consumption tax cut to support economic growth.Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total reported a trade surplus of JPY 153.1 billion in June, following a JPY 638.6 billion deficit in May and well below market expectations of a JPY 353.9 billion surplus. Exports declined 0.5% year-over-year, against the previous decline of 1.7%. The reading missed forecasts of a 0.5% gain, marking a second straight monthly decline. Meanwhile, imports rose 0.2%, recovering from the previous decline of 7.7% and better than the expected 1.6% decline. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.7% Consensus: 4.6% Previous: 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish.
10:26 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to hold 200-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair trades 0.6% lower to near the round-level of 0.5900 during European trading hours on Thursday.
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US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
10:13 Austria HICP (YoY) in line with forecasts (3.2%) in June
Austria HICP (YoY) in line with forecasts (3.2%) in June
10:04 Switzerland Exports (MoM) up to 24140M in June from previous 23300M
Switzerland Exports (MoM) up to 24140M in June from previous 23300M
10:04 Switzerland Imports (MoM): 18350M (June) vs previous 19469M
Switzerland Imports (MoM): 18350M (June) vs previous 19469M
10:01 Austria HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in June
Austria HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in June
09:38 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% (June)
United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% (June)
09:29 EUR/GBP remains weak near 0.8650 after UK employment data
The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory around 0.8665 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains weak against the Euro (EUR) after the UK employment data.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:02 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) increased to 134K in May from previous 89K
United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) increased to 134K in May from previous 89K
09:01 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.49 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $65.44.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $68.03 price posted on Wednesday, and trading at $68.10.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.49 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $65.44.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $68.03 price posted on Wednesday, and trading at $68.10. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $68.03 price posted on Wednesday, and trading at $68.10. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:01 UK Unemployment Rate rises to 4.7% in the quarter to May vs. 4.6% expected
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment rose to 4.7% in the three months to May after reporting 4.6% in the quarter to April, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.The data came in above the market consensus of 4.6%.
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment rose to 4.7% in the three months to May after reporting 4.6% in the quarter to April, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.
The data came in above the market consensus of 4.6%.The Employment Change data came in at 134K in May versus 89K in April.
More to come....
The data came in above the market consensus of 4.6%.The Employment Change data came in at 134K in May versus 89K in April.
More to come....
09:00 Switzerland Trade Balance climbed from previous 3831M to 5790M in June
Switzerland Trade Balance climbed from previous 3831M to 5790M in June
09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (5%) in May
United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (5%) in May
09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5%, above forecasts (4.9%) in May
United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 5%, above forecasts (4.9%) in May
09:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) registered at 4.7% above expectations (4.6%) in May
United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) registered at 4.7% above expectations (4.6%) in May
09:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 25.9K, above forecasts (17.9K) in June
United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 25.9K, above forecasts (17.9K) in June
08:37 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles around $38, awaits clarity on US-EU trade talks
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $38 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal consolidates as investors await more cues regarding trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).
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The white metal consolidates as investors await more cues regarding trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump stated that Washington could possibly has a deal with the EU, while expressing confidence that a trade pact with India is on the horizon."We’re very close to India, and we could possibly make a deal with EU, Trump said in an interview aired on Real America’s Voice.Trump’s comments came at a time when EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic was headed to Washington on Wednesday for next round of trade talks.Given that the EU is one of leading trading partners of the US, trade tensions between both economies would impact global trade order. Theoretically, the Silver price outperforms in a heightened globally uncertain environment.Meanwhile, escalating fears that the US inflation will heat up further when additional tariffs imposed by the US on its trading partners will become effective from August 1 are expected to keep supporting the Silver price. Silver tends to perform better in a high-inflation environment.On Wednesday, New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President John Williams and Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic warned that the impact of tariffs on inflation has just started building up and it will accelerate going ahead.“It's early days for impact of tariffs on economy, which is modest so far but will increase over time,” New York Fed Bank President John Williams said.Silver technical analysisSilver price holds the breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which led it to post a fresh over-a-decade high around $39.13.Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $37 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 60.00-80.00 range, indicating a strong bullish momentum.Looking up, the round-level of $40.00 will be a key barrier for the Silver price. On the downside, the 20-day EMA will act as a key support.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
08:16 USD/CAD retakes 1.3700, eyes multi-week top amid a broadly firmer USD
The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and climbs further beyond the 1.3700 mark amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices have now reversed the previous day's retracement slide from a three-week high and seem poised to appreciate further.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CAD regains positive traction amid the emergence of fresh USD buying.Reduced Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the buck and the currency pair.Trade-related uncertainties undermine the Loonie amid subdued Oil prices.The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and climbs further beyond the 1.3700 mark amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices have now reversed the previous day's retracement slide from a three-week high and seem poised to appreciate further.US President Donald Trump contradicted media reports that he was planning to oust Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and acknowledged that many have said that such a move would disrupt the markets. Adding to this, the growing acceptance that the US central bank would delay cutting interest rates assists the USD to regain positive traction following the previous day's good two-way price swings and lends support to the USD/CAD pair. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, is undermined by persistent trade-related uncertainties. In fact, Trump last week announced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada and told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney the new rate would go into effect on August 1. Trump added that levies would increase further if Canada retaliated. Adding to this, a 50% tariff on US copper imports keeps the CAD depressed and further benefits the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices struggle to attract any meaningful buyers and languish near the lowest level in over two weeks, touched on Wednesday. This, in turn, does little to influence the commodity-linked Loonie or hinder the USD/CAD pair's move up. Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring monthly Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – for some impetus later during the North American session. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.13% 0.18% 0.34% 0.23% 0.56% 0.28% 0.16% EUR -0.13% 0.05% 0.19% 0.13% 0.45% 0.18% 0.06% GBP -0.18% -0.05% 0.18% 0.06% 0.38% 0.10% -0.01% JPY -0.34% -0.19% -0.18% -0.16% 0.17% -0.07% -0.19% CAD -0.23% -0.13% -0.06% 0.16% 0.40% 0.04% -0.07% AUD -0.56% -0.45% -0.38% -0.17% -0.40% -0.36% -0.39% NZD -0.28% -0.18% -0.10% 0.07% -0.04% 0.36% -0.11% CHF -0.16% -0.06% 0.01% 0.19% 0.07% 0.39% 0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
08:10 USD/INR falls while investors await US-India trade deal confirmation
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR ticks down to near 85.95 but is broadly sideways, while investors await the confirmation of a trade deal between the United States and India.
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The USD/INR ticks down to near 85.95 but is broadly sideways, while investors await the confirmation of a trade deal between the United States and India. US President Donald Trump has reiterated several times that Washington is close to reaching a deal with New Delhi, however, no confirmed announcement has kept investors on the sidelines.On Wednesday, US President Trump expressed confidence in an interview aired on Real America’s Voice that he will sign a deal with India soon, while stating the possibility of a deal with the European Union (EU) too. "We’re [Washington] very close to India, and we could possibly make a deal with the EU,” Trump said, Reuters reported.Trump's comments came at a time when India’s Chief Trade Negotiator Rajesh Agrawal-led team has reached Washington for the next round of trade talks. Earlier this week, Union Minister Piyush Goyal affirmed that both nations are working to reach a “win-win” agreement, Financial Express (FE) reported.Apart from the confirmation of a trade pact between India and the US, investors are also keen to know trade terms. Market experts believe that the removal of trade barriers by New Delhi for making a deal with Washington could expose Indian companies to capital-heavy corporations of the US. Such a scenario would lead to an intense competition for domestic companies that could weaken overall business sentiment.Earlier this week, US President Trump also stated that a trade pact with India will allow US access to Indian markets.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee gains against US DollarThe Indian Rupee gains against the US Dollar even as the latter trades higher, following comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that the impact of tariffs announced by Washington has just started to build.“It's early days for impact of tariffs on economy, which is modest so far but will increase over time,” New York Fed Bank President John Williams said in a speech at New York Association for Business Economics on Wednesday. Williams warned that Tariffs should boost inflation by “one percentage point rest of 2025 into 2026”.On the current monetary policy stance, Williams said that it is at the right, which is likely to lower inflation and modestly weaken the job market.Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also warned while being interviewed by Fox Business that the headline inflation is “moving away from our target not towards it” due to an increase in prices of products from import-heavy sectors. We are seeing things underlying in the economy that suggest inflation pressures are up, and that’s really a source of concern, Bostic added.Fears of a resumption in inflationary pressures on the upside were prompted after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that prices of products that are imported into the US, such as household furnishings, recreation, and apparel rose sharply.Meanwhile, US President Trump continues to criticize the Fed, especially Chairman Jerome Powell for not bringing interest rates down. On Wednesday, a report from Bloomberg showed that Trump will likely fire Powell soon. However, Trump denied those reports.Technical Analysis: USD/INR struggles around 20-day EMAUSD/INR falls to near 85.90 at open on Thursday. The pair struggles to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.93, suggesting that the near-term trend is uncertain.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the asset lacks momentum on either side.Looking down, the May 27 low of 85.10 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the June 24 low at 86.42 will be a critical hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
08:09 US Dollar Index rises to near 98.50 ahead of Retail Sales data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is retracing its recent losses from the previous session and trading around 98.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
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Traders will keep an eye on the US Retail Sales for June, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due later in the North American session.The Greenback receives support from rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting, driven by the hotter-than-expected June inflation figures from the United States (US).The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in June, matching market expectations. Core CPI came in at 2.9%, just below the 3.0% forecast but still notably above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. On Wednesday, the bureau released US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, showing it remained unexpectedly unchanged in June, while core PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday that the Fed will probably need to leave interest rates where they are for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low in the face of upward pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs. Moreover, New York Fed President John Williams said late Wednesday that monetary policy is in the right place to allow the Fed to monitor the economy before taking its next decision.The latest Fed Beige Book shows that while overall business activity remains healthy and inflation pressures are relatively subdued, underlying cost pressures are building, and business operators remain cautious.US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he plans to send a single letter to over 150 countries, notifying them of a 10% tariff rate they will face. He emphasized that these are "not big countries" with limited trade ties to the US, unlike China or Japan. He also hinted the rate could rise to 15–20%, though he did not confirm any specifics. Regarding tariffs on Canada, he said it’s too soon to comment. A tariff deal with India, however, is very close. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.12% 0.17% 0.39% 0.23% 0.56% 0.30% 0.17% EUR -0.12% 0.03% 0.26% 0.14% 0.47% 0.21% 0.08% GBP -0.17% -0.03% 0.22% 0.07% 0.39% 0.13% 0.00% JPY -0.39% -0.26% -0.22% -0.20% 0.14% -0.09% -0.22% CAD -0.23% -0.14% -0.07% 0.20% 0.41% 0.07% -0.06% AUD -0.56% -0.47% -0.39% -0.14% -0.41% -0.34% -0.38% NZD -0.30% -0.21% -0.13% 0.09% -0.07% 0.34% -0.13% CHF -0.17% -0.08% -0.00% 0.22% 0.06% 0.38% 0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.1% Previous: -0.9% Source: US Census Bureau Why it matters to traders? Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
07:52 AUD/JPY drifts lower to below 96.50 as Australian Unemployment Rate hits 3.5-year high
The AUD/JPY cross faces some selling pressure near 96.35 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as Australia’s Unemployment Rate jumps to a three-and-a-half-year high in June.
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Australia’s Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3% in June vs. 4.1% prior, signaling potential for more rate cuts. Reduced expectations for an immediate BoJ rate hike might weigh on the Japanese Yen. The AUD/JPY cross faces some selling pressure near 96.35 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as Australia’s Unemployment Rate jumps to a three-and-a-half-year high in June. Traders await Japan’s June National Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due later on Friday for fresh impetus. Australian employment grew substantially in June. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed that the country’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% in June from 4.1% in May. This reading came in above the market consensus of 4.1% and registered the highest since late 2021. This employment report supported the case for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut next month, which exerts some selling pressure on the Aussie. “The consecutive poor jobs prints and the jump in unemployment rate to 4.3% is likely to spook the RBA,” said Alex Loo, a macro strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank in Singapore. “Investors are likely to read that the RBA may opt for consecutive cuts in August and September now,” Loo added. On the other hand, slowing economic growth in Japan and tariff uncertainty might reduce bets for an immediate Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the JPY and act as a tailwind for the cross. Furthermore, BoJ may face political pressure to keep interest rates low for longer than it wants, as Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition may lose the upper house majority in Sunday's vote. Analysts expect that if opposition groups gain traction, that could boost bond yields and complicate the BoJ's efforts to normalise monetary policy. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
07:46 GBP/USD drops below 1.3400 ahead of UK labor data
GBP/USD loses ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
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Traders are awaiting the United Kingdom (UK) jobs report, which includes June’s Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months to May, due later in the day.The GBP/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting, driven by the hotter-than-expected June inflation figures from the United States (US).Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday that the Fed will probably need to leave interest rates where they are for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low in the face of upward pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs. Moreover, New York Fed President John Williams said late Wednesday that monetary policy is in the right place to allow the Fed to monitor the economy before taking its next decision.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in June, against the market consensus of a 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI rose by 2.6% YoY versus 3.0% prior, softer than the 2.7% expected. Traders will keep an eye on the US Retail Sales for June, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due later on Thursday.The latest Fed Beige Book shows that while overall business activity remains healthy and inflation pressures are relatively subdued, underlying cost pressures are building, and business operators remain cautious.The downside of the GBP/USD pair could be restrained as the hotter-than-expected UK inflation data reinforce the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance. However, the BoE may adopt a balancing act while discussing interest rates in the August monetary policy meeting amid escalating price pressures and cooling labor market conditions. Economic Indicator Claimant Count Change The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 17.9K Previous: 33.1K Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
07:37 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,221.16 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,237.28 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 107,553.80 per tola from INR 107,743.10 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,221.16 10 Grams 92,211.62 Tola 107,553.80 Troy Ounce 286,807.10
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Gold daily market movers: Hovers near $3,350 awaiting a fresh catalyst
Gold price continued to trade sideways, capped by the $3,300-$3,380 range on Wednesday. Bullion’s spike happened on reports of Powell’s firing. Bloomberg revealed that “A White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity earlier Wednesday, said they expected Trump to move soon against the Fed chief. That was also the impression of some lawmakers following a Tuesday evening meeting, where Trump polled them on the possibility of moving against Powell.”
When asked on Wednesday, Trump said that while “it’s highly unlikely,” he could still see removing the Fed chair for “fraud.”
The US Produce Price Index (PPI) in June dipped from 2.6% to 2.3% YoY, below estimates of 2.5%. Excluding volatile items, PPI cooled from 3% to 2.6%, below forecasts of 2.7%.
Although factory inflation eased, the latest consumer inflation report in the US showed that prices jumped in June and are closing in on the 3% threshold, far from the Fed’s 2% goal.
US Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury yield, which usually correlates negatively with Gold, falling three basis points (bps) to 4.459%.
Interest rate probability indicates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current rates, with odds standing at 95% for a hold and 5% for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the July 30 meeting. Money markets had priced in less than 50 basis points (bps) of easing, with investors pricing in over 46 bps of rate cuts toward the end of the year.
US President Trump stated that another deal with India is forthcoming. He added that they would deal with Japan with the tariffs letter. He announced on Tuesday that the US reached an agreement with Indonesia, in which the latter will pay 19% tariffs, while US producers will pay 0%. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:34 Gold price retreats further from multi-week high touched on Wednesday
Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday and moves further away from a three-week top, around the $3,377 area touched the previous day. US President Donald Trump denied reports that he is planning to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
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US President Donald Trump denied reports that he is planning to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Apart from this, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will delay cutting interest rates assists the US Dollar (USD) to regain positive traction and reverse Wednesday's pullback from its highest level since June 23. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen undermining the precious metal.That said, persistent uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies and their impact on the global economy keep investors on edge. This might continue to offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price and warrants caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further depreciating move. Investors now look to the release of US Retail Sales and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members should drive the USD demand and produce trading opportunities around the non-yielding yellow metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by fading safe-haven demand, modest USD strengthInvestors turned nervous on Wednesday, prompting heavy US Dollar selling and pushing the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh multi-week top amid reports that US President Donald Trump was seeking to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The market volatility, however, subsided after Trump told reporters that he was unlikely to fire the central bank chief. On the economic data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell short of market expectations and remained flat in June. This marked a notable deceleration in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. Adding to this, comments from influential FOMC members suggest that the Fed would probably wait at least until September before resuming its rate-cutting cycle. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams warned that the impact of trade tariffs is modest so far but will increase over time. Williams added that the economy is in a good place, the labor market is solid, and the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is in the right place to allow policymakers to monitor the economy before taking the next steps.Adding to this, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that the US central bank will probably need to leave interest rates for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low. Logan further noted that tariff increases appear likely to create inflationary pressure, and June CPI data suggests that the PCE inflation, which the Fed targets to be at a 2% annual rate, will rise.Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in the possibility of 50 basis points worth of easing by the Fed this year. This, along with worries about the potential economic fallout from Trump's erratic trade policies, could underpin the safe-haven precious metal. In fact, Trump last week notified leaders of 25 countries about new tariff rates set to take effect on August 1.Thursday's US economic docket features the release of monthly Retail Sales figures, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members will be scrutinized for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Gold price remains confined in the monthly trading range; $3,300 holds the key for bullsFrom a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action since the beginning of this month points to indecision among traders. Furthermore, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Hence, any further slide is more likely to find some support near the $3,322-$3,320 horizontal zone ahead of the $3,300 round figure. Some follow-through selling below the $3,283-3,282 region, or a one-week low touched last Tuesday, would lead to the Gold price accelerating the corrective fall towards the July swing low, around the $3,248-3,247 zone.On the flip side, the $3,365-3,366 region could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,377 area, or the overnight high, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the commodity further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 area. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
07:30 Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) remains at 3.8% in June
Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) remains at 3.8% in June
06:54 Japan’s Aoki: Concerned about speculative FX market movements
Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki said on Thursday that he is concerned about the foreign exchange market movements, including speculative moves.
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Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki said on Thursday that he is concerned about the foreign exchange market movements, including speculative moves.Key quotesImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.
Will closely monitor how interest rates affect livelihood.
Concerned about FX market movements, including speculative moves.
Will create a market environment where JGBs would be issued stably.Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.51% on the day to trade at 148.60. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Will closely monitor how interest rates affect livelihood.
Concerned about FX market movements, including speculative moves.
Will create a market environment where JGBs would be issued stably.Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.51% on the day to trade at 148.60. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
06:42 EUR/USD falls toward 1.1600 ahead of Eurozone HICP data
EUR/USD retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 1.1620 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders will likely observe Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data scheduled to be released later in the day.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:19 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) rose from previous -4 to -1 in 2Q
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) rose from previous -4 to -1 in 2Q
05:58 Japanese Yen resumes downtrend; USD/JPY climbs to mid-148.00s amid fresh USD buying
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts fresh sellers after data released during the Asian session on Thursday showed that Japan clocked a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in June amid a continued decline in exports.
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This comes amid persistent headwinds from US trade tariffs, slowing economic growth in Japan, declining real wages, and signs of cooling inflation. Adding to this, domestic political uncertainty could complicate the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy normalization path, which undermines the JPY.Meanwhile, most Asian equity markets tracked the overnight positive turnaround on Wall Street that followed US President Donald Trump's denial of reports that he was close to firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. This is seen as another factor exerting downward pressure on the safe-haven JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, draws support from reduced bets for an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lifts the USD/JPY pair to mid-148.00s in the last hour.Japanese Yen bears have the upper hand as traders continue to price out a BoJ rate hike in 2025Government data released earlier this Thursday showed that Japan's trade surplus stood at ¥153.1 billion in June, marking a notable improvement from the ¥638.6 billion deficit seen in the prior month. The reading, however, fell short of expectations for a surplus of ¥353.9 billion as exports fell for the second straight month. Japan's exports declined 0.5% YoY amid sluggish overseas demand, especially in the top market, China, reflecting the sustained impact of US tariffs. Imports, however, improved substantially following a 7.7% fall in May and grew 0.2% YoY vs. expectations for a 1.6% drop, indicating signs of recovery in domestic demand. Meanwhile, recent polls indicate that Japan’s ruling coalition – the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito – might lose its majority in the Upper House election on July 20. The outcome could further heighten both fiscal and political risks in Japan and also complicate trade negotiations amid the looming US trade tariffs.In fact, US President Donald Trump issued tariff notices to over 20 trading partners, including Japan, which faces a 25% tariff on all exports to America amid stalled US-Japan trade talks. This comes on top of declining real wages and signs of cooling inflation in Japan, which warrants the Bank of Japan's caution in the near term. Investors now seem convinced that the BoJ will forgo raising interest rates this year. Furthermore, traders have been scaling back their expectations for an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve amid signs that the Trump administration's increasing import taxes are passing through to consumer prices.New York Fed President John Williams warned on Wednesday that the impact of trade tariffs is only just starting to hit the economy. Williams further added that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is in the right place to allow central bankers to monitor the economy before taking their next steps.Separately, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that the US central bank will probably need to leave interest rates for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low. Logan further noted that tariff increases appear likely to create inflationary pressure, and the Fed wants to see low inflation continue to be convinced.Trump contradicted media reports that he was planning to oust Fed Chair Jerome Powell and acknowledged that many have said that such a move would disrupt the markets. Trump, however, said that he would love for Powell to resign and unleashed fresh criticism against the Fed chief for keeping rates high.Traders now look to the US macro data – monthly Retail Sales figures, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – for some impetus. Furthermore, speeches from influential FOMC members will drive the USD/JPY pair ahead of Japan's National CPI report on Friday.USD/JPY seems poised to reclaim 149.00 amid a constructive technical setup From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair showed some resilience below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Wednesday, and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength back towards the 149.00 mark, en route to the overnight swing high near the 149.15-149.20 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The upward trajectory could extend further towards reclaiming the 150.00 psychological mark for the first time since late March.On the flip side, the 148.00 round figure now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the Asian session low, around the 147.70 region. The latter nears the 100-hour SMA, below which the USD/JPY pair could retest sub-147.00 levels. Some follow-through selling might shift the bias in favor of bearish trades and drag spot prices to the 146.60 intermediate support en route to the 146.20 area, the 146.00 mark, and the 100-day SMA support, currently pegged near the 145.80 region. Economic Indicator Merchandise Trade Balance Total The Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports that the Japanese economy heavily relies on a trade surplus. Therefore, any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. If a steady demand in exchange for Japanese exports is seen, that would turn into a positive. Read more. Last release: Wed Jul 16, 2025 23:50 Frequency: Monthly Actual: ¥153.1B Consensus: ¥353.9B Previous: ¥-637.6B Source: Ministry of Finance of Japan
05:40 NZD/USD softens to below 0.5950 amid cautious trades
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5925 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The cautious trades and the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its current interest rates underpin the US Dollar (USD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
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The US PPI was flat in June, below the forecast. The upbeat Chinese GDP data could support the China-proxy Kiwi, but the RBNZ’s dovish tone might cap its upside. The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5925 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The cautious trades and the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its current interest rates underpin the US Dollar (USD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The US June Retail Sales will take center stage later on Thursday. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revealed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in June. This figure came in below the market consensus of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the PPI ex food & energy rose by 2.6% YoY in June versus 3.0% prior, softer than the expectations of 2.7%. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting due to the tariff uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump. Fed officials said they remain cautious about the impact tariffs will have on inflation and believe the US economy is in the right position now that they can wait to see the impacts before making the next move. China has avoided a sharp economic slowdown due to policy support, which might support the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. However, the dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could weigh on the NZD. The RBNZ is widely expected to deliver more rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, driven by the subdued activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
05:32 Australian Dollar declines following disappointing employment data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, retracing its recent gains from the previous session.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar falls as weaker employment data reinforced the case for RBA rate cuts.Australia’s Employment Change came at 2K in June, against the expected 20K, while Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3%.Trump announced plans to notify over 150 countries in a single letter about a forthcoming 10% tariff.The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, retracing its recent gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair further depreciates following the release of disappointing employment data from Australia, reinforcing the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) easing.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that seasonally adjusted Employment Change was 2K in June, recovering from a previous decline of 2.5K in May, though falling way short of the expected 20K new jobs. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% from 4.1% prior. The figure came in above the market consensus of 4.1%.The AUD/USD pair appreciated as market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump's comments in an interview with the Real America's Voice network on Wednesday. Trump said he would love for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to resign, but that it would disrupt the markets if the president were to remove him. He also mentioned the possibility of striking a deal with Europe. Regarding tariffs on Canada, he said it’s too soon to comment. A tariff deal with India, however, is very close.Australian Dollar loses ground as US Dollar holds ground ahead of Retail Sales dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is edging higher and trading at around 98.50 at the time of writing. Traders will keep an eye on the US Retail Sales for June, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due later on Thursday.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in June, against the market consensus of a 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI rose by 2.6% YoY versus 3.0% prior, softer than the 2.7% expected.On Wednesday, Trump said he plans to send a single letter to over 150 countries, notifying them of a 10% tariff rate they will face. He emphasized that these are "not big countries" with limited trade ties to the US, unlike China or Japan. He also hinted the rate could rise to 15–20%, though he did not confirm any specifics.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in June, matching market expectations. Core CPI came in at 2.9%, just below the 3.0% forecast but still notably above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The hotter-than-expected June inflation figures reignited concerns about prolonged high Fed interest rates.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan spoke at a World Affairs Council event in San Antonio on Tuesday, noting that the US central bank will probably need to leave interest rates where they are for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low in the face of upward pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs.Trump has threatened to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is reached within 50 days. Trump also warned of secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian Oil. Moreover, Trump, alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, confirmed that European allies will purchase billions of dollars’ worth of American-made weapons, such as Patriot missile systems. These weapons will be transferred to Ukraine in the coming weeks to tackle intensified Russian attacks.The US government immediately imposed a 17% duty on Monday on most imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico after negotiations ended without an agreement to avert the tariff. Trump announced, on Saturday, a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico starting August 1. He also proposed a blanket tariff rate of 15%-20% on other trading partners, an increase from the current 10% baseline rate. In response, the European Union announced on Sunday that it will extend its pause on retaliatory measures against US tariffs until early August, in hopes of reaching a negotiated agreement.Chinese economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter, compared to a 5.4% growth in the first quarter and the expected 5.1% growth. Meanwhile, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 1.1% in Q2, against the market consensus of a 0.9% increase. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 4.8% YoY in June, against the 5.6% expected and 6.4% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 6.8%, against the 5.6% expected.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, which climbed 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.5% gain in June. This marked a third consecutive monthly increase, signaling a modest yet encouraging improvement in consumer outlook.The AUD could face challenges as markets expect an 80% chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in August. Markets also expect a 75-basis-point rate cut by early 2026. However, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that inflation risks persist, citing the elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity as factors that could drive inflation above current projections.Australian Dollar falls below 0.6500, testing 50-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6490 on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicated a weakening bullish bias as the pair has broken below the ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 mark, suggesting that market bias is weakening. The pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is weaker.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair is testing the 50-day EMA at 0.6489, aligned with the three-week low at 0.6485. A break below this level would weaken the medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to navigate the region around the psychological level of 0.6400.The AUD/USD pair may attempt to return to the channel and test the nine-day EMA at 0.6531. A break above this level could strengthen the short-term price momentum and support the pair to approach the eight-month high of 0.6595, which was reached on July 11.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.16% 0.20% 0.37% 0.24% 0.72% 0.39% 0.14% EUR -0.16% 0.04% 0.21% 0.11% 0.58% 0.25% 0.00% GBP -0.20% -0.04% 0.18% 0.04% 0.51% 0.19% -0.06% JPY -0.37% -0.21% -0.18% -0.16% 0.30% 0.01% -0.24% CAD -0.24% -0.11% -0.04% 0.16% 0.56% 0.14% -0.10% AUD -0.72% -0.58% -0.51% -0.30% -0.56% -0.41% -0.57% NZD -0.39% -0.25% -0.19% -0.01% -0.14% 0.41% -0.25% CHF -0.14% -0.01% 0.06% 0.24% 0.10% 0.57% 0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Employment Change s.a. The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2K Consensus: 20K Previous: -2.5K Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
04:31 Australia Part-Time Employment increased to 40.2K in June from previous -41.2K
Australia Part-Time Employment increased to 40.2K in June from previous -41.2K
04:30 Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.3%, above forecasts (4.1%) in June
Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.3%, above forecasts (4.1%) in June
04:30 Australia Full-Time Employment declined to -38.2K in June from previous 38.7K
Australia Full-Time Employment declined to -38.2K in June from previous 38.7K
04:30 Australia Participation Rate came in at 67.1%, above forecasts (67%) in June
Australia Participation Rate came in at 67.1%, above forecasts (67%) in June
04:30 Australia Employment Change s.a. registered at 2K, below expectations (20K) in June
Australia Employment Change s.a. registered at 2K, below expectations (20K) in June
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1461 vs. 7.1526 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1461 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1526 and 7.1703 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1461 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1526 and 7.1703 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.7% in July from previous 5%
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.7% in July from previous 5%
03:44 WTI rises to near $65.50 as crude inventories drop, tariff fears may cap gains
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.50 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI drifts higher, snapping the three-day losing streak, as US crude oil inventories post a weekly draw.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price trades in positive territory near $65.50 in Thursday’s early Asian session. Crude inventories in the United States fell by 3.859 million barrels last week, noted EIA. Concerns that Trump’s tariff policy will hurt demand might cap the WTI’s upside. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.50 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI drifts higher, snapping the three-day losing streak, as US crude oil inventories post a weekly draw. US crude oil inventories fell last week, reversing some of the large stock builds seen in the previous two weeks. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 11 fell by 3.859 million barrels, compared to a rise of 7.07 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 1.8 million barrels. On the other hand, concerns about wider economic impact from US tariffs and economic uncertainty could weigh on the WTI price. US President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than 150 trade partners notifying them of tariff rates. Trump also stated that he would probably put 10% or 15% tariff on smaller countries.Easing concerns about supply disruption after Trump gives a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine might undermine the black gold. Trump late Monday announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Russia agrees to a peace deal in 50 days. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:52 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance climbed from previous ¥-305.5B to ¥-235.5B in June
Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance climbed from previous ¥-305.5B to ¥-235.5B in June
02:50 Japan Imports (YoY) above forecasts (-1.6%) in June: Actual (0.2%)
Japan Imports (YoY) above forecasts (-1.6%) in June: Actual (0.2%)
02:50 Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total below expectations (¥353.9B) in June: Actual (¥153.1B)
Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total below expectations (¥353.9B) in June: Actual (¥153.1B)
02:50 Japan Exports (YoY) below forecasts (0.5%) in June: Actual (-0.5%)
Japan Exports (YoY) below forecasts (0.5%) in June: Actual (-0.5%)
02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥446B in July 11 from previous ¥611.7B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥446B in July 11 from previous ¥611.7B
02:31 USD/CAD trades with mild gains above 1.3650, US Retail Sales in focus
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3685 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The reduced bets on Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cuts provide some support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
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Canadian inflation rose to 1.9% in June, reducing expectations for BoC rate reductions. The US PPI inflation was unchanged in June, softer than expected. The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3685 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The reduced bets on Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cuts provide some support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Traders will keep an eye on the US Retail Sales for June, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due later on Thursday.Canada’s inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 1.9% YoY in June from 1.7% in May, Statistics Canada data reported Tuesday. Economists broadly expect that the new report will make a BoC interest rate cut on July 30 unlikely. Investors see a 5% possibility that the Canadian central bank cuts its benchmark interest rate from the current rate of 2.75% at the July meeting, down from a 14% chance before the Canadian CPI report. On the USD’s front, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale costs, was unexpectedly unchanged in June. This figure came in below the market consensus of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the core PPI rose by 2.6% YoY in June versus 3.0% prior, softer than the 2.7% expected. The wholesale inflation report supports expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting. Fed officials said they remain cautious about the impact tariffs will have on inflation and believe the US economy is in the right position now that they can wait to see the impacts before making the next move. The cautious stance of the Fed could underpin the Greenback against the Loonie in the near term. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:28 GBP/USD snaps losing streak as fresh Greenback weakness reverses market flows
GBP/USD saw renewed gains on Wednesday, snapping an eight-session losing streak as Cable bidders pump the brakes on an extended backslide.
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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:13 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds near $38.00 as bullish momentum builds
Silver price advances as Thursday’s North American session begins, up by 0.07% after printing gains of over 0.50% on Wednesday, courtesy of weaker-than-expected data that pushed precious metals higher. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $37.90, which is below the $38.00 figure.
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At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $37.90, which is below the $38.00 figure.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver is upward biased even though the precious metal dipped to a weekly low of $37.50 before stabilizing above $37.85. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is upwardly biased, indicating that buyers are in control.That said, if XAG/USD climbs past $38.00, this clears the path for further gains. The next resistance would be the $38.50 figure, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high of $39.12, ahead of $39.50 and $40.00.Conversely, if Silver slides below $37.00, sellers could drive prices toward the 20-day SMA at $36.78, before testing the $36.00 figure.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
01:55 US President Donald Trump says India trade agreement is close, Europe deal possible - Reuters
US President Donald Trump said late Wednesday that his administration was very close to a trade agreement with India and a deal could be reached with Europe, per Reuters
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US President Donald Trump said late Wednesday that his administration was very close to a trade agreement with India and a deal could be reached with Europe, per ReutersTrump further stated that it was too soon to describe the prospect of a deal with Canada. Trump also said he would probably put 10% or 15% tariff on smaller countries.Key quotesOn Canada tariffs, it's too soon to say.
Very close to the India tariff deal
Will probably put a 10 or 15% tariff on 150 smaller countries.
Will put out one number for 150 countries.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% higher on the day to trade at 98.30. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Very close to the India tariff deal
Will probably put a 10 or 15% tariff on 150 smaller countries.
Will put out one number for 150 countries.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% higher on the day to trade at 98.30. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
01:45 Fed’s Williams: Current moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said late Wednesday that monetary policy is in the right place to allow the Fed to monitor the economy before taking its next decision, per Reuters. Williams added that the impact of trade tariffs is only just starting to hit the economy.
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Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said late Wednesday that monetary policy is in the right place to allow the Fed to monitor the economy before taking its next decision, per Reuters. Williams added that the impact of trade tariffs is only just starting to hit the economy.Key quotesCurrent ‘modestly restrictive’ monetary policy is appropriate.
Current state of interest rate policy allows Fed time to analyze data.
Tariff impact modest so far but will increase over time.
Tariffs should boost inflation one percentage point rest of 2025 into 2026.
Will need to watch data to understand tariff impact.
It's 'early days' for impact of tariffs on economy.
Overall inflation likely at 2.5% in June, core at 2.75%.
Right now, economy in good place, labor market is solid.
Job growth and labor supply are both slowing.
Economy beset by heightened uncertainty.
U.S. economy to grow around 1% this year.
Unemployment to rise to 4.5% by year’s end.
Inflation to stand at between 3%-3.5% this year.
Inflation to ease to 2.5% next year, 2% in 2027.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% higher on the day to trade at 98.30. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Current state of interest rate policy allows Fed time to analyze data.
Tariff impact modest so far but will increase over time.
Tariffs should boost inflation one percentage point rest of 2025 into 2026.
Will need to watch data to understand tariff impact.
It's 'early days' for impact of tariffs on economy.
Overall inflation likely at 2.5% in June, core at 2.75%.
Right now, economy in good place, labor market is solid.
Job growth and labor supply are both slowing.
Economy beset by heightened uncertainty.
U.S. economy to grow around 1% this year.
Unemployment to rise to 4.5% by year’s end.
Inflation to stand at between 3%-3.5% this year.
Inflation to ease to 2.5% next year, 2% in 2027.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% higher on the day to trade at 98.30. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
00:32 EUR/USD rebounds as Trump threatens Fed’s independence, soft PPI weighs on USD
The EUR/USD holds to earlier gains of 0.25% on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump threatened to remove the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. This, along with a softer-than-expected inflation report on the producer side, capped the Euro’s advance versus the US Dollar.
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This, along with a softer-than-expected inflation report on the producer side, capped the Euro’s advance versus the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1633 after bouncing off three-week lows of 1.1562.During the North American session, headlines at first suggested that Trump would sack Powell imminently. However, he later denied those rumors, though he continued to batter him, saying that Powell has been too late to cut interest rates. On the data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) edged below estimates and May’s reading in headline and underlying prints.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he is not focused on news reports about the Fed but rather on matters that truly matter. The Fed unveiled its May Beige Book, which painted a solid economic outlook for the economy, as activity increased slightly from late May through early July.The Eurozone schedule remained empty on Wednesday, with traders eyeing the release of June’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) ahead of the July 24 European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting. Recent remarks from several members have shown that the Governing Council is split between cutting or holding rates unchanged.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD recovers 1.1600 but remains fragileAtlanta Fed President Bostic said that he would currently wait to cut rates, as inflation is not at the Fed’s target, adding that data would guide his decisions in the upcoming period. He stated that the Fed operates by committee with a diversity of views.The Fed Beige Book showed that economic activity increased, though uncertainty remains elevated and the outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Regarding the labor market, employment increased somewhat overall, though hiring was limited due to ongoing economic and policy uncertainty. The book revealed that prices, despite moderating, had risen due to tariffs, particularly for raw materials, and businesses expect cost pressures to remain elevated.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.3% YoY in June, down from 2.6% in May and below the expected 2.5%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also softened to 2.6% from 3.0%, missing forecasts of 2.7%. While factory-level inflation has shown signs of cooling, consumer inflation continues to rise, with June CPI data indicating that prices are approaching the 3% mark, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.Interest rate probabilities show a 95% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its July 30 meeting, with just a 5% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut. In broader terms, money markets have priced in less than 50 basis points of easing for the remainder of the year, with current expectations pointing to around 46 bps in total cuts by year-end.Trump’s letter to the EU triggered the alarms on the European Central Bank (ECB), which is set to paint a more negative scenario next week than previously thought in June. However, traders seem convinced that the ECB will hold rates unchanged at the next meeting.Since last week, ECB members have expressed their views regarding monetary policy. Centeno favors a pause or a cut, adding his name to the list of DeMarco, Vujcic and Villeroy. Supporting a rate cut is Fabio Panetta, who has been vocal about downside risks to growth. On the contrary, Isabel Schnabel stated that rates are in a good place and supports holding rates unchanged, echoing Robert Holzmann's comments to wait for more data.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD struggles at 20-day SMA, further downside eyedThe EUR/USD is neutral to upwardly biased, though to cement the uptrend, traders need to achieve a daily close above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1681. Once done, this would pave the way for further gains, with 1.1700 up next. Followed by the July 20 daily high at 1.1749, ahead of 1.1800 and the record high of 1.1829.On the flipside, a drop below 1.1600 would put into play today’s low of 1.1562. A break of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at 1.1482, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.1254. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
00:30 Australia unemployment rate expected to hold steady in June
Australia is set to release the June employment report on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce that the country added 20,000 new job positions in the month, reversing the 2,500 lost positions announced in May.
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AUD/USD gains downward traction around 0.6500, aims for lower lows. Australia is set to release the June employment report on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce that the country added 20,000 new job positions in the month, reversing the 2,500 lost positions announced in May. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4.1%, while the Participation Rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 67%. Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is under strong selling pressure amid fears dominating financial boards. Australian ABS reports both full-time and part-time positions through the monthly Employment Change. Generally speaking, full-time jobs imply working 38 hours per week or more and usually include additional benefits, but they mostly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. That’s why the economy prefers full-time jobs.The 2,500 jobs lost in May were less concerning than the crude number, as, over the month, the country managed to add 38,700 full-time jobs while losing 41,200 part-time positions. At the end of the day, full-time jobs weigh more than part-time ones when it comes to measure the labor sector health. Australian unemployment rate expected to hold steady in JuneMarket analysts anticipate the Australian Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.1%. It has been stable around that level for almost a year, dropping to 4% a couple of months early in 2025, but overall steady, a relief for policymakers. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been cautious when it comes to trimming interest rates and has been among the latest major economies to abandon the tightening monetary policy cycle. Easing inflationary pressures and tepid growth supported the decision, yet the labor market has remained tight. The RBA Board met earlier in July and decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.85%, against market bets of a 25 bps cut, citing elevated uncertainty among the reasons behind the decision. On a positive note, officials acknowledged “that the most extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided.” Regarding the employment situation, the Monetary Policy Statement shows: “Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates, and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Looking through quarterly volatility, wages growth has softened from its peak, but productivity growth has not picked up, and growth in unit labour costs remains high.”With that in mind, tepid job creation could accelerate the loosening of monetary policy. The decline in part-time jobs, however, is not as bad news as it could be in full-time ones. Governor Michele Bullock spoke following the July decision. She said that it is appropriate for the Board to have a cautious, gradual stance on easing, adding the effects of the 50 bps cut delivered this year still had to “flow through.” She also noted that the Board is confident on a path to ease further, leaving the door open for another 25 bps cut before year-end. With that in mind, an employment report in line with expectations would have no actual impact on the AUD. Signs of a strengthening labour market could further delay potential interest rate cuts and benefit the Aussie, while the opposite scenario is also valid. When will the Australian employment report be released, and how could it affect AUD/USD?The ABS June report will be released early on Thursday, and the Australian economy is expected to have added 20,000 new job positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4.1% and the Participation Rate at 67%.Ahead of the announcement, the AUD/USD pair battles to retain the 0.6500 mark amid a risk-averse environment, benefiting the USD. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair has scope to extend its slide, according to intraday technical readings, as it is accelerating its slump below all its moving averages in the 4-hour chart. Even further, technical indicators accelerated south, with room to extend their declines before reaching oversold conditions.”Bednarik adds: “The 0.6480 area comes as immediate support, as the pair bottomed around earlier in July. Further declines expose the 0.6430 region, en route to the 0.6400 mark. AUD/USD would need to recover above 0.6520 to shrug off the negative stance, with additional gains exposing the 0.6570 area.” Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate s.a. The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 4.1% Previous: 4.1% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.
Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate s.a. The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 4.1% Previous: 4.1% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.
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