Forex News Timeline

Monday, May 5, 2025

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices are stabilizing on Monday, clawing back near-term losses after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced it would begin stepping up its internal production quotas beginning in June.

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WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The US Dollar remained under pressure at the start of the new trading week, extending recent losses amid persistent selling interest. Investor focus is now turning to a series of key central bank rate decisions in the days ahead, with the Federal Reserve front and centre.

The US Dollar remained under pressure at the start of the new trading week, extending recent losses amid persistent selling interest. Investor focus is now turning to a series of key central bank rate decisions in the days ahead, with the Federal Reserve front and centre.Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, May 6:The US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to rebound from daily lows and end Monday’s session with humble losses near the key 100.00 hurdle. The final Balance of Trade data will be in the spotlight, seconded by the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. EUR/USD faded the initial bull run and advanced marginally around the 1.1300 region on Monday. The final HCOB Services PMIs for Germany and the euro area will be released, as well as Producer Prices in the region.GBP/USD managed to reverse four consecutive days of losses, meeting support once again in the 1.3270-1.3260 band. Next on tap on the UK calendar will be the final S&P Global Services PMI. USD/JPY added to Friday’s retracement and revisited the mid-143.00s on the back of a mild pullback in the Greenback. The next data release in Japan wil be the final Jibun Bank Services PMI on May 7.AUD/USD rose further and faltered just ahead of the key 0.6500 barrier, building on Friday’s advance. Building Permits and Private House Approvals are next on the Australian docket.Prices of WTI dropped further and approached the area of yearly troughs near the $55.00 mark per barrel following news that the OPEC+ is planning to accelerate its output cuts in June.Gold prices rose sharply past the $3,300 mark per troy ounce, or multi-day highs, on the back of the selling pressure in the Greenback, while steady safe-haven demand also contributed to the metal’s gains. Silver prices reversed course and set aside four daily drops in a row, finding support around the $32.00 mark per ounce.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, posted mild gains on Monday as the Taiwan Dollar surged over 5%. The move sparked a broader rally in Asian currencies amid speculation of FX conversions by exporters.

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The US Dollar Index edges to 99.60 as the Taiwan Dollar posts the biggest intraday jump in over 30 years.ISM Services PMI climbs to 51.6 in April, beating estimates and March’s 50.8 reading.Treasury Secretary Bessent says trade deals may be reached this week; deficit reduction targeted.Market activity remains thin with holidays in China and the United Kingdom.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, posted mild gains on Monday as the Taiwan Dollar surged over 5%. The move sparked a broader rally in Asian currencies amid speculation of FX conversions by exporters. Markets remained thin with multiple public holidays affecting liquidity.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar tumbles on Taiwan FX move and trade deal hopesUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States may finalize some trade deals as early as this week, sparking optimism.Bessent expressed confidence that 17 trading partners, excluding China, have presented “very good” proposals that are under review.The Secretary expects US economic growth could return to 3% by this time next year if current plans are implemented.He mentioned a goal to lower the Congressional Budget Office projections and reduce the federal deficit by about 1% annually.Bessent pointed to strong private credit growth as a sign that US banking regulations are excessively tight and need adjusting.He also noted that China has only made public offers in trade negotiations, with no new developments privately disclosed.The Taiwanese Dollar’s 5% surge, the largest since the early 1990s, triggered widespread selling of US Dollars in Asian FX markets.Exporters in Taiwan are believed to be converting USD holdings in anticipation of an appreciating domestic currency to secure trade gains.The Taiwan-US negotiations reportedly held their first official meeting on May 1, though no outcomes were revealed.Market activity was unusually thin, with China and the United Kingdom closed for holidays, exacerbating FX volatility.The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, beating both March’s reading and analyst expectations, signaling steady US service sector activity.The Employment Index from the same report climbed to 49.0, suggesting some labor market improvement within the service industry.The Prices Paid Index jumped to 65.1, raising concerns that underlying inflation may remain sticky despite recent easing in headline figures.Despite the positive ISM data, the US Dollar Index fell, pressured by external FX dynamics and lowered Fed rate hike expectations.Traders are increasingly confident the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at the 4.25%–4.50% range in the upcoming meeting.

Technical Analysis
The DXY Index currently trades at 99.93, up 0.08% on the day, within a daily range of 99.46 to 100.05. Momentum remains neutral with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 40.84, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes a buy signal. However, the 20, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages — at 100.13, 105.38, and 104.39, respectively — all point to continued bearishness. Additional downward pressure comes from both the 10-day and 30-day EMAs, which sit at 99.77 and 101.09. Key support is located at 99.60, with resistance at 99.77, 100.08, and 100.13.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Silver's price advanced close to 1% on Monday, as the US Dollar (USD) remains pressured due to US President Donald Trump's tariffs and appetite for the haven’s appeal of precious metals like Gold and the grey metal.

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At the time of writing, XAG/USD is at $32.30 after bouncing off daily lows of $31.98.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSince peaking on March 28 at $34.58, Silver tumbled to $28.33, a six-month low, before recovering some ground. Still, buyers were unable to reach the $34.00 mark, and for the last three trading days, it stabilized within the $31.67-$32.61 range.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum favors sellers as the RSI turned bearish on May 1, and XAG/USD slipped through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.61.However, if buyers push XAG/USD past $33.50 on a daily closing, look for a test of $34.00. On the other hand, a breach of $33.00 could send the grey metal to test the 100-day SMA at $31.67. If surpassed, the next stop would be the 200-day SMA at $31.11.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold (XAU/USD) prices jumped over 2%, or more than $70, on Monday as the Greenback was battered, although positive economic data from the United States (US) suggests the economy remains solid. XAU/USD trades at $3,309 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,237.

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XAU/USD trades at $3,309 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,237.Market mood improved following a report by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that service providers reassured the robustness of the US economy. The data hinted that prices are rising, ignited by US President Donald Trump’s tariffsOver the weekend, Trump announced 100% duties on foreign-produced movies while saying that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should lower interest rates. He said he won’t remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026.Trump added that the US is meeting with many countries, including China, and that his main priority is reaching a deal with Beijing.Meanwhile, traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The markets have fully priced in that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged, though they will be looking at Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. Policymakers will not update their forecasts until the June meeting, which could provide some hints regarding monetary policy.Daily digest market movers: Gold price unfazed by higher US Treasury bond yieldsBullion prices remain underpinned, although US Treasury bond yields rise. The US 10-year Treasury note yield climbs four and a half basis points to 4.35%. At the same time, US real yields rallied five bps to 2.087%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, up from 50.8 and beating expectations of 50.6, signaling a modest improvement in service sector activity.Notably, the Prices Paid sub-index surged to 65.1—its highest since February 2023—up from 60.9, indicating a reacceleration in input inflation pressures.Last week’s US Nonfarm Payroll figures for April exceeded estimates despite trailing March’s numbers, suggesting that the labor market remains solid. Worth noting that the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.2%, justifying the Fed’s stance of wait-and-see mode regarding monetary policy.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price poised to challenge $3,350Gold price uptrend resumed as today’s price action confirmed a ‘bullish harami’ two-candle chart pattern, indicating that bulls are gathering steam. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further confirmed the latter, as the RSI’s line aims upwards.Therefore, traders will face key resistance levels like $3,350, followed by the $3,400 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be $3,450 and $3,500. Conversely, if sellers drag XAU/USD spot price below $3,300, look for a test of the May 1 low of $3,202, ahead of the April 3 high turned support at $3,167. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose another 100 points on Monday, extending the ongoing equity recovery even as investor sentiment continues to churn in the face of constantly changing trade policies from the US administration.

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Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

USD/CAD is treading water as investors weigh the geopolitical significance of Tuesday’s scheduled meeting between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump, alongside a series of high-impact economic releases expected to shape monetary policy outlooks. 

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We are going to Washington with a clear-eyed view — we will protect Canadian jobs, and we’ll press for fairness.”Tuesday’s summit is expected to address two major domains: the restructuring of trade arrangements amid rising US protectionism and the future of shared security commitments, particularly in the context of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and North American defense. “There are shared security and economic interests,” Carney noted, “but the path forward needs to be redefined.” The meeting’s outcome may have immediate implications for cross-border trade expectations and could weigh on Canadian Dollar (CAD) sentiment depending on the tone and progress of negotiations.Policy outlook and economic indicators shape USD/CAD sentimentBeyond geopolitics, USD/CAD is being shaped by a series of forthcoming economic releases and commodity price trends. In Canada, investors are awaiting the April Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), due Tuesday. The index will provide a timely snapshot of business activity, and any deviation from expectations could influence near-term outlooks for the Canadian economy and Bank of Canada policy guidance.In the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surprised to the upside on Monday, posting a reading of 51.6 for April. This exceeded the consensus forecast of 50.6 and marked an improvement from the prior month’s 50.8. The figure reflects moderate expansion in the services sector, which comprises the majority of the US Gross Domestic Product, and may temper dovish speculation ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcement.Additionally, subdued oil prices continue to exert modest downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar, given the commodity’s critical role in Canada’s export economy. With no single dominant narrative, these variables are collectively reinforcing a narrow, indecisive trading range in USD/CAD.Bearish momentum builds as USD/CAD hovers above Fibonacci supportUSD/CAD is currently consolidating above 1.3794, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level derived from the September low to the March high. This zone represents a key technical threshold within the broader corrective move. The pair has repeatedly tested this level without a convincing rebound, indicating deteriorating bullish momentum and growing risk of a deeper pullback.The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 1.3888, continues to cap price action and reinforce short-term bearish pressure. Since mid-April, USD/CAD has remained below this moving average, with each rally attempt failing to break or close above it, a sign that sellers remain in control of the near-term trend.Immediate downside support lies at 1.3760, which has acted as a pivot during past consolidation phases. A clean break below this would likely expose the next major support area near 1.3420, corresponding to the November 2024 swing low and marking a more substantial retracement of the prior bullish leg.Momentum indicators reinforce the cautious tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is tracking near 36, suggesting that downside momentum persists, but the pair is not yet in oversold territory. This leaves room for further selling without requiring a technical bounce, particularly if fundamental catalysts, such as the Carney-Trump summit or the Federal Reserve policy statement, drive renewed volatility.In summary, the technical landscape favors a bearish bias while price remains below the 20-day SMA and fails to reclaim key resistance near 1.3880. A break below 1.3760 would likely confirm bearish continuation, while any move above the 20-day average could signal a potential recovery back toward the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3985.USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.


United States 3-Year Note Auction increased to 3.824% from previous 3.784%

USD/TWD cratered into the 28.90 area on Monday, deepening its historic collapse after a 5.7% drop added to Friday’s 4.4% fall.

The pair trades near 28.95 after a two-day collapse exceeding 10%, triggered by speculation Taiwan is revaluing the TWD.Broader Asia FX rally fueled by bets that regional currencies will be allowed to strengthen to win U.S. trade concessions.Technical bias turns sharply bearish; USD/TWD trades near three-year lows with support at 28.80 and resistance around 29.60.USD/TWD cratered into the 28.90 area on Monday, deepening its historic collapse after a 5.7% drop added to Friday’s 4.4% fall. The Taiwan Dollar’s two-day rally of over 10% is the sharpest in more than three decades and has triggered broader speculation that Asian economies may be allowing their currencies to appreciate to gain leverage in U.S. trade negotiations.While the Taiwanese central bank denied intervention or coordination with the U.S., Governor Yang Chin-long was forced to hold a rare press conference, reaffirming there had been no exchange rate discussions with Washington. Still, markets interpreted the central bank’s passive stance—alongside hot money inflows from exporters—as an unofficial green light for appreciation. The move brought the TWD to its strongest level since mid-2022, amplifying volatility across Asia FX.This dynamic spilled over to other major currencies in the region. The US dollar dropped 0.7% against the Japanese yen and Australian dollar, with the latter touching a five-month high. The offshore Chinese yuan hit a six-month peak at 7.1881 before paring gains. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly on the belief that peak tariffs from President Trump’s administration may be behind us, fueling a rebound in risk-sensitive assets and EM currencies.In the U.S., economic indicators remain mixed. The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, and Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside at 177,000, though broader uncertainty around tariffs and Fed policy continues to weigh on the dollar. Markets are still pricing in rate cuts later in the year, albeit at a slightly slower pace than last week.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical standpoint, USD/TWD is in free fall. After breaching multiple support zones, the pair now hovers near three-year lows. Immediate support lies at 28.80, followed by 28.60 and 28.40. Resistance is likely to emerge around 29.60, 29.90, and 30.20. Momentum indicators confirm the bearish bias, and unless Taiwanese authorities step in or trade rhetoric shifts materially, further downside cannot be ruled out.Daily Chart

United States (US) Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent spoke on Monday, touching on various topics surrounding the Trump administration's constantly evolving trade strategy.

United States (US) Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent spoke on Monday, touching on various topics surrounding the Trump administration's constantly evolving trade strategy. Actual details about the US's direction on foreign trade remain incredibly fluid, as figures touted by key Trump administration officials continue to change.Key highlightsWe think we can get growth back to 3% by this time next year.

We can get the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) down by sometime this year.

We're very close to some deals on trade, maybe as early as this week on trade deals.

I am highly confident that 17 trading partners, excluding China, have presented very good trade proposals.

We could see substantial progress on trade with China in the coming weeks.

We want to bring down the federal deficit by maybe 1% per year.

We're trying to create the best environment for stable rates.

Growth of private credit is a sign that banks are too tightly regulated.

China has only offered what they've said publicly.

The EUR/CAD pair ticked higher on Monday, trading around the 1.5600 area after the European session. While price action remained within the middle of the daily range, the pair showed signs of underlying strength, aligning with a broader bullish structure.

EUR/CAD trades near the 1.5600 zone after gaining modestly on Monday’s session.Bullish outlook supported by long-term trend indicators, despite short-term indecision.Resistance levels are forming overhead while dynamic support from EMAs remains in play.The EUR/CAD pair ticked higher on Monday, trading around the 1.5600 area after the European session. While price action remained within the middle of the daily range, the pair showed signs of underlying strength, aligning with a broader bullish structure. Momentum signals remain mixed for now, though the longer-term trend bias continues to favor the euro over the loonie.Technically, the EUR/CAD setup holds a bullish tone despite some neutral momentum signals. The Relative Strength Index sits near 49, showing a balanced market, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence leans bearish with a soft sell signal. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and the Bull Bear Power indicator suggests a slight bias toward buying pressure, offering mild confirmation of demand.Trend indicators are more decisive. The 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages sit well below current levels and continue to rise, reinforcing the broader bullish framework. Similarly, the 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages offer dynamic support just under spot. On the other hand, the 20-day SMA lies slightly above price and may act as initial resistance until momentum resumes.Support levels are noted at 1.5638, 1.5633, and 1.5595. Resistance stands at 1.5675, 1.5676, and 1.5686. A break through the resistance zone could confirm continuation of the longer-term uptrend, while failure to hold support may result in a short-term pause or retracement.Daily Chart

The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Monday, trading around the 1.1300 zone following the European session. Price action stayed confined within the mid-range of the day’s movement, reflecting a steady grind higher rather than an impulsive breakout.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.1300 zone after climbing modestly post-European session.Bullish structure remains supported despite mixed momentum signals.Upward-sloping trend indicators reinforce strength, with support levels holding below.The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Monday, trading around the 1.1300 zone following the European session. Price action stayed confined within the mid-range of the day’s movement, reflecting a steady grind higher rather than an impulsive breakout. While some momentum indicators suggest consolidation, the broader trend remains clearly bullish, backed by firm alignment across key moving averages.Technically, EUR/USD continues to flash a bullish overall signal. The Relative Strength Index is neutral near 58, showing moderate momentum without overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence flashes a sell signal, which tempers immediate bullish expectations, while the Ultimate Oscillator and Awesome Oscillator also remain in neutral territory. These readings highlight a possible pause in short-term momentum, though they don’t reverse the broader trend.The core bullish bias is driven by moving averages. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages lie below the current price and point upward, providing a firm technical base. Supporting this outlook further are the 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, which continue to rise and align with the short-to-medium term uptrend.Support levels are found at 1.1314, 1.1287, and 1.1279. Resistance lies at 1.1331 and 1.1353. A sustained move above resistance could expose further bullish extension, while a drop below the nearest support would likely lead to a brief retest of recent lows.Daily Chart

The Pound Sterling advanced some 0.32% against the US Dollar on Monday, back above the 1.33 handle, as market participants digested data from the United States (US) portraying that business activity in the services sector is gathering some steam, yet fails to underpin the Greenback.

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At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3300.GBP/USD surges ahead of BoE rate decision, while Fed rate cut outlook narrows to three moves in 2025UK markets are closed as traders brace for the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday. Most traders project a 0.25% interest rate cut by the central bank. Data across the pond failed to boost the Greenback even though the Services PMI released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed an improvement in April.The ISM Services PMI expanded by 51.6, up from 50.8, and exceeded estimates of 50.6. A sub-component of the PMI suggested a reacceleration of inflation as Prices Paid by companies rose to their highest level since February 2023, jumping to 65.1 from 60.9.Following the data and last Friday's solid US Nonfarm Payroll figures, traders had priced in three interest rate cuts instead of four, according to the fed funds rate December 2025 futures contract. Market players are pricing in 74.5 basis points (bps) of easing or three 25 bps rate cuts, providing an edge to the US Dollar as the BoE is projected to reduce rates by 75 bps, but it would move faster than the Federal Reserve.Consequently, the GBP/USD could be set for a pullback if traders failed to conquer the 1.3400 mark. Positive US trade news could provide a lifeline to Cable and pave the way for a re-test of the latter.Fox Business Charles Gasparini revealed that sources at Wall Street suggest that Washington is near closing a deal with some Asian countries like India, South Korea, and Japan.This week, the UK economic docket will feature Retail Sales, BoE’s Breeden Speech, and BoE’s decision. In the US, traders are eyeing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/USD has consolidated near last week's lows, though it hovers near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3324. If bulls would like to remain in charge, they need a daily close above 1.33 so they can challenge 1.3350 before launching an attack toward the year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.3443.Conversely, if sellers move in and drag the exchange rate below 1.3300, this could pave the way for a fall to April 23’s daily low of 1.3233 before testing 1.3200. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% -0.30% -0.62% 0.13% -0.31% -0.44% -0.38% EUR -0.02% -0.05% -0.37% 0.38% -0.06% -0.19% -0.13% GBP 0.30% 0.05% -0.54% 0.43% -0.01% -0.15% -0.08% JPY 0.62% 0.37% 0.54% 0.75% 0.31% 0.25% 0.34% CAD -0.13% -0.38% -0.43% -0.75% -0.74% -0.58% -0.51% AUD 0.31% 0.06% 0.01% -0.31% 0.74% -0.14% -0.06% NZD 0.44% 0.19% 0.15% -0.25% 0.58% 0.14% 0.06% CHF 0.38% 0.13% 0.08% -0.34% 0.51% 0.06% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Silver price (XAG/USD) rallies to near $32.60 during North American trading hours on Monday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slumps at the start of the week, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting in focus.

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The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slumps at the start of the week, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting in focus. Technically, a decline in the US Dollar makes investment in the Silver price an attractive bet for investors.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down almost 0.5% around 99.50.According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders are almost certain that the central bank will leave interest rates steady on Wednesday. The tool also shows that the probability for the Fed to lower borrowing rates in June has dropped to 32% from 66% seen a week ago. Traders have pared Fed dovish bets for the June meeting after the release of the better-than-projected United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April.Theoretically, a high-interest-rate environment bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Meanwhile, diminishing hopes of a US-China trade war resolution in the near term have also supported the Silver price. The demand of safe-haven assets, such as Silver, increases amid heightening geopolitical tensions.Trump said on Sunday that he is not going to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week but expressed willingness to lower tariffs on China. At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much.”On the economic front, US ISM Services PMI data for April has come in better than expected. The Services PMI expanded at a faster pace to 51.6 from 50.8 in March and estimates of 50.6.Silver technical analysisSilver price struggles to revisit an over three-week high around $33.70. The near-term outlook of the white metal has become uncertain as it falls below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.65.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 50.00 after failing to break above 60.00, indicating that investors are not bullish anymore.Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains resilient against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session despite rising tensions over the weekend between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and US President Donald Trump regarding a rejected proposal to deploy American troops in Mexico.


The Mexican Peso holds steady despite rising political tension between Mexico and the United States.Markets are watching the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Mexico for policy direction.The USD/MXN exchange rate tests trendline resistance.The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains resilient against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session despite rising tensions over the weekend between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and US President Donald Trump regarding a rejected proposal to deploy American troops in Mexico.Fresh signs of slowing momentum in the US economy emerged Monday as the S&P Global US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 50.6 for April, down from 53.5 in March and below both the flash estimate (51.2) and market consensus (51.4). The reading, which captures activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors, reinforces concerns that the US economy is cooling more rapidly than expected. With the USD/MXN exchange rate trading at 19.617, 0.17% higher from Friday’s close at the time of writing, markets remain focused on upcoming US economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and the broader risk environment for signs of the next potential catalyst that could drive the emerging market (EM) currency pair out of its recent range.Over the weekend, Reuters reported that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had turned down an offer from US President Donald Trump to allow US troops into Mexico to combat drug trafficking. Speaking at a public event in Texcoco, Sheinbaum reiterated Mexico’s position on sovereignty, stating, “We can work together, but you in your territory and us in ours.” On Sunday, Trump confirmed the proposal, calling cartel violence a major threat and referring to drug gangs as “horrible people.”Mexican Peso steady as geopolitics and central bank signals shape USD/MXNWhile the exchange highlights long-standing sensitivities between the two nations, the Peso’s muted response suggests investors are prioritising economic fundamentals, particularly monetary policy, over political noise.The Mexican Peso remains highly sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and developments in the United States, which accounts for nearly 80% of Mexico’s exports. As such, the direction of the USD/MXN pair is being shaped primarily by diverging interest rate expectations between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), alongside broader macroeconomic signals.This week, market attention is firmly fixed on the upcoming Fed interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday, May 7. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 4.25%, the key focus for investors will be the messaging that accompanies the decision. Specifically, the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference will be critical in shaping expectations about the path of US interest rates in the second half of the year. For the USD/MXN pair, any indication that the Fed may begin easing policy sooner than anticipated could shift capital flows, reduce the yield advantage of the US Dollar, and offer renewed support to the Mexican Peso. Conversely, a more cautious or data-dependent stance may reinforce existing range-bound conditions, keeping the pair sensitive to incremental shifts in economic data and central bank communication.Daily digest movers: Interest rates and economic outlook remain critical for USD/MXNAccording to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in July, as signs of softening US growth increase. A dovish tone from Powell this week could weigh on the US Dollar and support EM currencies like the Mexican Peso.Despite Friday’s better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed strong job creation, stable unemployment, and rising Average Hourly Earnings, the US Dollar failed to gain traction, highlighting market caution around the timing of future rate moves.Banxico is scheduled to meet on May 15, following two consecutive 50-basis-point rate cuts that brought the benchmark rate to 9.00%. With inflation easing and growth subdued, markets expect another cut, though Banxico has signaled a cautious, data-driven approach.The Mexican economy grew 0.2% QoQ in Q1 2025, narrowly avoiding a technical recession. Gains were concentrated in agriculture and mining, while manufacturing contracted and services stagnated.The reintroduction of US tariffs on key Mexican exports, including vehicles and metals, has added pressure to Mexico’s external sector and may weigh on growth and foreign investment in the months ahead.
Global uncertainties, including slowing international demand, volatile commodity prices, and potential shifts in US trade or immigration policy, pose additional risks to the Peso and investor confidence in emerging markets.Peso steady as USD/MXN stalls under descending trendlineFrom a technical standpoint, USD/MXN remains in a tight consolidation range just below the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.5864 as the pair struggles to break free from a well-defined descending channel. The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the April high of 21.0826 to the April low of 19.451, establishing a clear structure for potential reversal or continuation. The pair is currently testing the 100.0% Fibonacci placeholder at 19.4701, which has served as solid support in recent sessions. A sustained break below this zone could expose the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2024 - 2025 move at 19.3721, opening further downside. On the upside, resistance is seen first at the 10-day SMA and then at 19.6910, with stronger resistance aligned near 19.8152 (78.6% Fibo Retracement). A descending trendline from the April peak continues to cap recovery attempts. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued below 40, indicating that bearish momentum is still in place. Although a Hammer candlestick appeared on April 24, it has not yet triggered any meaningful bullish follow-through, keeping the near-term bias tilted cautiously lower unless the pair breaks above descending trendline resistance.USD/MXN daily chart

Economic activity in the US service sector gathered momentum in April, with the ISM Services PMI advancing to 51.6 from 50.8 in March, coming in above analysts’ estimates of 50.6.

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United States ISM Services PMI above expectations (50.6) in April: Actual (51.6)

United States ISM Services Prices Paid up to 65.1 in April from previous 60.9

United States ISM Services Employment Index: 49 (April) vs 46.2

United States ISM Services New Orders Index rose from previous 50.4 to 52.3 in April

United States S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 50.8, below expectations (51.2) in April

United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 50.6 below forecasts (51.2) in April

United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 50.8, below expectations (51.4) in April

United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 50.8, below expectations (51.2) in April

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ fell from previous $681.3B to $677.8B

The AUD/USD pair posts a fresh five-month high near the psychological level of 0.6500 on Monday.

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The Aussie pair strengthens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms, with the single-country continent’s Labor Party securing a second consecutive three-year term after winning parliamentary elections. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.06% -0.40% -0.56% -0.01% -0.45% -0.59% -0.29% EUR 0.06% -0.06% -0.24% 0.32% -0.12% -0.26% 0.04% GBP 0.40% 0.06% -0.40% 0.38% -0.06% -0.20% 0.10% JPY 0.56% 0.24% 0.40% 0.55% 0.12% 0.05% 0.37% CAD 0.00% -0.32% -0.38% -0.55% -0.74% -0.59% -0.29% AUD 0.45% 0.12% 0.06% -0.12% 0.74% -0.15% 0.16% NZD 0.59% 0.26% 0.20% -0.05% 0.59% 0.15% 0.30% CHF 0.29% -0.04% -0.10% -0.37% 0.29% -0.16% -0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). The victory of Australia’s Labor Party leader Anthony Albanese has indicated the continuation of current economic policies, a scenario that is theoretically favorable for the economic outlook.However, investors are still uncertain about Australia’s economic prospects in the face of the trade war between the United States (US) and China. Given that Australia is the leading trading partner of China, sparking concerns over Beijing’s economy weighs on the Australian Dollar.Meanwhile, a weak start by the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week has also supported the Aussie pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 99.60.The USD Index trades lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. Traders have fully priced in that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. The reasoning behind the Fed leaving its key borrowing rates steady is elevated consumer inflation expectations and better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges lower and remains capped below the 100.00 level at the time of writing on Monday after the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) surges over 5% and triggers a spillover effect in Asian currencies against

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It is the biggest intraday gain in over three decades, on speculation that exporters are rushing to convert their holdings of US Dollars to the island’s currency, according to Bloomberg. All this occurs in a very illiquid market with several Asian countries, such as China, and the United Kingdom, closed for a public holiday. The move opens up an interesting element in the tariff talks that are taking place between the United States (US) and Taiwan. One of the reasons exporters are buying Taiwan Dollars is that they expect the authorities will allow the currency to appreciate to help reach a trade deal with the US. Taiwan’s government said Saturday its negotiation team had conducted the first round of meetings with the US on May 1, though no details were released.Daily digest market movers: A lot of moving parts againOn Sunday, US President Donald Trump suggested that his administration could strike trade deals with some countries as soon as this week, offering the prospect of relief for trading partners seeking to avoid higher US import duties, Reuters reported. The European Union is set to propose measures to ban Russian Gas imports by the end of 2027, as the bloc pushes to sever ties with the country that was once its biggest energy supplier, Bloomberg reports. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said the country will not use the sale of its US Treasury holdings in trade talks with the Trump administration, retracting earlier statements from last week, Bloomberg reports. At 13:45 GMT, April's final reading of the S&P Global Services Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released. Expectations are for a steady 51.4 reading. At 14:00 GMT, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its April PMI for the Services sector:The Services PMI headline is expected to dip to 50.6, coming from 50.8 in March.The Services New Orders Index was at 50.4 and the Services Employment Index at 46.2 in March, with no forecasts for April available. Equities are all over the place while several countries in Asia remain closed for a public holiday. European indexes are up around 0.50% on the day. US futures look under pressure with the Nasdaq down near 1%.The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May's meeting stands at 3.2% against a 96.8% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 31.8% chance of a rate cut.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.31%, erasing past weeks’ softening as traders have even priced out the chances for a June rate cut. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Outside pressureThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is moving due to a bunch of spillover and domino effects from the Taiwan Dollar. Although it is not part of the Index, other currencies in the Asian region follow, with the Japanese Yen (JPY), which accounts for 13.6% of the DXY, currently trading nearly 1% stronger against the Greenback. A side effect of the demands from the Trump administration, urging exporting countries to appreciate their currency as one of the demands to avoid tariffs, hits. In turn, this revaluation weakens the Greenback, and this was only Taiwan. On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 100.22, which supported the DXY back in September 2024, with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and again as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024.On the other hand, the 97.73 support could quickly be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, recoups a substantial share of initial losses and rebounds from the intraday low of $55.14 to near $57.30 during European trading hours on Monday.

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The Oil price is still down almost 1.5% from Friday’s closing price and is expected to remain on the backfoot as the OPEC+ has decided to speed up their objective to phase out production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) announced since September 2022.The oil cartel decided to unwind oil production cuts gradually by increasing output at a pace of 138,000 bpd each month from April and will reach the 2.2 million bpd mark by September 2026. However, the cartel has accelerated its pace almost three times to 411,000 bpd in May and will increase it to 960,000 in June, Reuters reported. Technically, the Oil price underperforms in an oil-flooded market.Additionally, elevated uncertainty on the demand outlook in the face of tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump on the second day of April has also sparked Oil demand concerns.US President Trump has indicated that he could announce bilateral deals this week, but the trade war with China is expected to last longer, while responding to reporters over the weekend. While increasing hopes of bilateral trade deals by Washington indicate that fears of tariffs proposed by US President Trump have peaked now, the stand-off between the world’s two largest powerhouses will continue to keep investors on their toes.Market experts have revised their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts for China in the wake of a trade war with China. Given that China is the largest Oil importer in the world, an economic slowdown in the Asian giant dampens the Oil’s demand outlook.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks up to near 1.3285 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Monday, rebounding from a fresh weekly low around 1.3260 earlier in the day.

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The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar (USD) continues to face pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets almost fully price in that the central bank will keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Therefore, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be monetary policy guidance by the Fed and its Chairman, Jerome Powell, for the remainder of the year.Fed officials have stated that monetary policy adjustments would become appropriate only if they see cracks in the labor market and the economy. However, recent United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls data for April showed a better-than-expected job growth trend despite the tariff policy by President Donald Trump. Additionally, Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data was not as bad as it appeared at first glance, as the contraction was due to a robust increase in imports.Another key limiting factor for the Fed to lower interest rates is elevated consumer inflation expectations. Business owners are hiking selling prices to offset the impact of rising input costs amid higher import duties, fuelling price pressures on the economy.Meanwhile, US President Trump has insisted that the Fed should bring interest rates down. “Gasoline just broke $1.98 a Gallon, the lowest in years, groceries (and eggs!) down, energy down, mortgage rates down, employment strong, and much more good news, as Billions of Dollars pour in from Tariffs. Just like I said, and we’re only in a transition stage, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. no inflation, the Fed should lower its rate!!!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social on Friday.Trump has also pushed back fears of assaulting the Fed’s autonomy by clarifying that he will not fire Chairman Powell. "No, no, no. That was a total – why would I do that? I get to replace the person in another short period of time," Trump said in an interview with NBC News on Sunday, Reuters reported.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades mixed amid holiday in UK marketsThe Pound Sterling exhibits a mixed performance in a holiday-thinned trade as the United Kingdom (UK) markets are closed at the start of the week on account of Early May. Investors brace for significant volatility in the British currency this week as the Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce the interest rate decision on Thursday. According to analysts at Bank of America (BofA), the BoE will cut borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, with a majority vote of 8-1. The BofA expects that Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Swati Dhingra to vote for a larger-than-usual interest rate reduction of 50 bps. The BofA also believes that potential economic risks in the face of Trump’s tariffs, improving domestic inflation, and declining energy costs justify the rate reduction. For the remaining year, the bank has anticipated that the BoE could reduce interest rates twice more, excluding the rate cut on Thursday.On the global front, persistent uncertainty over US-China trade relations will keep the British currency and UK assets under pressure. The comments from US President Trump over the weekend indicated that the Sino-US trade war will not resolve in the near term. Trump said on Sunday that he is not going to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, but signaled that higher tariffs on imports from Beijing will be reduced ahead. “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much,” he said.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds the weekly low of 1.3260The Pound Sterling trades slightly above the weekly low of 1.3260 against the US Dollar on Monday. The pair corrected last week from the three-year high of 1.3445. The overall outlook remains bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to return above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI manages to do so.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

Speaking at a new conference, Taiwanese central bank Governor Yang Chin-long clarified that the “US did not ask Taiwan Dollar (TWD) to appreciate.”

Speaking at a new conference, Taiwanese central bank Governor Yang Chin-long clarified that the “US did not ask Taiwan Dollar (TWD) to appreciate.”Additional quotesUrge market commentators not to speculate on the TWD issue.Urge companies not to listen to untrue analysis, have unreasonable expectations and sell their US Dollar positions.Taiwan does not manipulate the exchange rate.Taiwan's trade surplus with the US has widened in recent years, mainly due to an increase in US demand for Taiwan's information and communications technology rather than exchange rate factors.Volatility of the Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar has widened, as foreign fund inflows to Taiwan stocks and companies' expectations of the TWD appreciating.Like to stress that central bank did not attend US-Taiwan tariff talks, meaning no discussion of foreign exchange rate.We as the central bank would not manipulate the forex exchange rate.We will try out best to maintain market stability.We hope market will calm down.I personally think the Taiwan Dollar is overly fluctuating, it's not good.Expectations of strong appreciation are big, we have intervened appropriately.Forex has been abnormal in the past few days.We hope it will end here (speaking about recent abnormal exchange rate activity).We are watching fund flows very closely.We have found some are attempting to speculate on forex.Small- and mid-size exporters joined big-size exporters in selling their US Dollar positions today.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 101.77 on Monday, up from 101.21 on Friday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) rises by more than 1% on Monday as traders flee to safe assets after an eventful weekend on the geopolitical front.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price rallies more than 1% on Monday as markets are off to a soft start to a week that will feature the Fed interest-rate decision. Geopolitical risks from Trump and Israel are spurring investors to head back into Gold.Upside risks persist even as sentiment appears to tilt to the downside. Gold (XAU/USD) rises by more than 1% on Monday as traders flee to safe assets after an eventful weekend on the geopolitical front. The Houthi attack that hit Ben Gurion airport this weekend and Israel's promise to retaliate while preparing for a broad ground offensive in Gaza are elevating risks again in the region. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that military action might be an option to consider for the US to seize control of Greenland. Gold’s appeal increases as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on May 7. Over the weekend, Trump expressed his dislike again of the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell. After calling Powell “stiff”, the US President called upon the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members to pressure Chairman Powell to deliver rate cuts. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fedwatch tool, no rate cut is foreseen for this Wednesday. Given the recent Nonfarm Payrolls print and the latest string of data from sectors such as Manufacturing and Services, the US economy is starting to ease, but is not crashing. This could be ammunition for Fed Chairman Powell to push against the political pressure and channel to markets that rates will stay steady for longer until the Fed is comfortable enough to lower them.. Daily digest market movers: Closed off MondaySeveral Asian markets are closed for a public holiday on Monday. The United Kingdom is closed as well. In the Gold mining sector, some takeover news with Gold Road Resources agreeing to be bought for $3.7 billion after South African suitor Gold Fields sweetened its offer, concluding a public spat between the joint venture partners, Financial Review reports. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May's meeting stands at 5.2% against a 94.6% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 46.6% chance of a rate cut.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Promises madeBullion is sprinting higher on Monday, while the Greenback dipped lower at the start of the trading day. The communication vessels synergy between the two assets comes just a few days ahead of the Fed rate decision. Generally, steady or higher rates are bad for Gold as the returns from interests in bonds are more attractive than the return from Gold. However, there might be a breakout in that narrative: if rates remain elevated at current levels, the US economy could weaken further, contract and trigger stagflation or recession, and Gold is a better positioned hedge to withstand that scenario. On the upside, the R1 resistance at $3,265 has already been broken in a topside test in early trading this Monday. Should some follow-through come, the R2 at $3,337 might be a bit too far off. Rather look for $3,290 (May 1 high) and $3,320 (April 30 high) as intermediary levels nearby for upside resistance. On the downside, pivot at $3,244 together with the technical level at $3,245 should do the trick and hold. In case Bullion dips further, very close supports are present near $3,219 S1 intraday support and $3,197 S2 intraday support for Monday. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

AUD/JPY trades subdued near 93.40 during European hours on Monday after gaining for three consecutive sessions. The currency cross is under pressure as rising global trade uncertainties boost demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY faces headwinds as the Japanese Yen rises due to rising global trade uncertainties, boosting safe-haven demand.Markets are closely watching US-Japan bilateral trade talks, with Tokyo aiming to finalize a deal by June.Planned policy measures under the re-elected Australian PM Albanese could fuel inflation, potentially reducing the RBA’s flexibility to lower interest rates.AUD/JPY trades subdued near 93.40 during European hours on Monday after gaining for three consecutive sessions. The currency cross is under pressure as rising global trade uncertainties boost demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY). Thin market activity is expected due to a public holiday in Japan.Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump confirmed ongoing trade talks with China, though no direct meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled. Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry announced it is reviewing a US proposal to restart negotiations.Markets are also monitoring US-Japan bilateral trade discussions, as Tokyo pushes to conclude an agreement by June. Japan is urging Washington to reconsider additional tariffs on Japanese automobiles, aiming to dismantle Trump-era trade measures.The AUD/JPY cross may regain its ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against its peers after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a second three-year term in the 2025 Federal Election. With over 45% of votes counted, Albanese’s Labor Party has claimed a parliamentary majority. His administration has pledged disciplined governance focused on cost-of-living relief, trade stability, and expanded investment in renewable energy, housing, tax cuts, and healthcare. However, these initiatives could stoke inflation, potentially limiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) room to cut interest rates.Economic data further supported the AUD. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.6% MoM in April, easing from March’s 0.7%, but marking a second consecutive monthly increase. Annual inflation also climbed to 3.3% from 2.8%, signaling persistent price pressures. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

On Monday, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng called on “Asian countries to work together to deal with tariffs.”

On Monday, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng called on “Asian countries to work together to deal with tariffs.”He warned that “global economic uncertainties are rising.”

European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Fabio Panetta said on Monday that “protectionism threatens to weaken prosperity.”

European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Fabio Panetta said on Monday that “protectionism threatens to weaken prosperity.”Nothing further was reported from the policymaker. Market reactionEUR/USD was last seen changing hands at 1.1339, up 0.37% on the day.

The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index declined to -8.1 in May following April’s -19.5, the latest survey showed on Monday.

Eurozone investors’ morale worsened in May.EUR/USD stays well bid above 1.1300 after the Eurozone data.The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index declined to -8.1 in May following April’s -19.5, the latest survey showed on Monday.

The USD/CAD pair is remaining steady after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3810 during the European hours on Monday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The USD/CAD pair is testing psychological support at 1.3800, with the next key level at the seven-month low of 1.3760.The 14-day RSI remains just above the 30 mark, signaling a continued bearish bias without reaching oversold conditions.A breakout above the nine-day EMA at 1.3839 could reinforce short-term bullish momentum.The USD/CAD pair is remaining steady after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3810 during the European hours on Monday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a possible bullish shift in market sentiment, with the pair sustaining levels above the descending channel pattern.Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above 30, reflecting a persistent bearish bias without entering oversold territory. The USD/CAD pair also remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting weak short-term momentum. Further price action is needed to confirm the trend direction.On the downside, the USD/CAD pair is testing the key psychological support at 1.3800, followed by the seven-month low of 1.3760, last seen on May 2, which sits just above the upper boundary of the descending channel. A clear move back into the channel would reinforce the bearish bias, potentially driving the pair toward the 1.3419 level — its lowest since February 2024 — with further support near the lower boundary of the channel around the 1.3320 area.The USD/CAD pair faces initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3839. A decisive break above this level would strengthen short-term bullish momentum, potentially signaling a shift in bias. This could open the path toward the 50-day EMA at 1.4066, followed by the monthly high at 1.4415. Continued upside may then target the key resistance at 1.4793 — the lowest level seen since April 2003.USD/CAD: Daily Chart Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% -0.14% -0.36% 0.10% -0.32% -0.34% -0.02% EUR -0.10% 0.04% -0.20% 0.26% -0.15% -0.17% 0.14% GBP 0.14% -0.04% -0.46% 0.22% -0.18% -0.21% 0.11% JPY 0.36% 0.20% 0.46% 0.47% 0.05% 0.10% 0.45% CAD -0.10% -0.26% -0.22% -0.47% -0.71% -0.44% -0.12% AUD 0.32% 0.15% 0.18% -0.05% 0.71% -0.03% 0.30% NZD 0.34% 0.17% 0.21% -0.10% 0.44% 0.03% 0.31% CHF 0.02% -0.14% -0.11% -0.45% 0.12% -0.30% -0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence climbed from previous -19.5 to -8.1 in May

Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation dipped from previous 0.62% to 0.45% in April

EUR/USD trades slightly higher to near 1.1325 during the European trading hours on Monday,  further gaining ground after touching a three-week low of 1.1265 late last week.

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The major currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) on persistent uncertainty over United States (US)-China trade relations and as investors turn cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, drops to near 99.80 but is trading inside Friday’s range.Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence while speaking with reporters that bilateral trade deals with some of his trading partners could be announced this week. However, he confirmed not having any dialogue with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week, but didn’t deny any ongoing trade discussions between officials from both nations. While the announcement of bilateral trade deals by Washington would indicate that fears of tariffs proposed by US President Trump have peaked now, the long-lasting standoff between the world’s two largest powerhouses will continue to keep investors on their toes.This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, which will be announced on Wednesday. The Fed is widely anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to get cues about the interest rate outlook.Better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April and elevated consumer inflation expectations in the face of Donald Trump’s tariff policy will be a limiting factor for the Fed to reduce interest rates.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as USD faces pressureEUR/USD gains at the expense of the US Dollar. The Euro (EUR) trades broadly flat while traders are increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates again in the June policy meeting despite hotter-than-expected Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April.The data showed on Friday that the core HICP – which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – grew at a faster pace of 2.7% compared to estimates of 2.5% and the March reading of 2.4%. In the same period, the headline HICP rose steadily by 2.2% on year, faster than estimates of 2.1%.Traders continue to bet supporting more interest rate cuts from the ECB as they are more concerned about the Eurozone economic outlook due to the fallout of Donald Trump’s protectionist policy than the slight increase in inflationary pressures.On Friday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed confidence in an interview with Austria’s Die Presse newspaper that the central bank could continue reducing interest rates, Reuters reported. "It depends on how inflation develops. But we can be optimistic here," de Guindos said, after being asked how long the ECB will continue reducing interest rates.In Monday’s session, the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by the US final S&P Global and ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April. The ISM Services PMI is expected to come in lower at 50.6 from 50.8 in March, signaling that the services sector grew at a moderate pace.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD recovers above 1.1300EUR/USD holds recovery above the key level of 1.1300 on Monday from its three-week low of 1.1265 posted on Thursday. The major currency pair rebounded after attracting bids near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.1260.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum has concluded for now. However, the upside bias still prevails.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the 25 September high of 1.1214 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is attempting to recover after opening with a gap down. The DXY is trading near 99.80 at the time of writing.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index steadies amid mounting speculation over the US-China trade outlook.Trump confirmed that trade negotiations with China are ongoing, but no direct talks are scheduled for this week.Trump confirmed he will not attempt to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is attempting to recover after opening with a gap down. The DXY is trading near 99.80 at the time of writing. The Greenback remains under pressure amid growing speculation surrounding the US-China trade outlook. Later in the North American session, traders will turn their attention to the US ISM Services PMI for further market cues.Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump confirmed that trade negotiations with China are ongoing, though he clarified that no direct talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled for this week. On Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry stated it is reviewing a US proposal to resume trade discussions.Trump's recent comments on tariffs have also drawn market interest, especially from US companies considering reshoring operations from China. Speaking on Sunday, Trump acknowledged the economic consequences of high tariffs, saying, “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much.”In monetary policy, Trump confirmed he will not attempt to replace Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026. Although he criticized Powell as “a total stiff,” Trump reiterated his belief that interest rates should be reduced eventually. In a separate policy announcement, Trump said he would direct the US Trade Representative and the Commerce Department to begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.On the data front, Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding forecasts of 130,000 but down from a revised 185,000 in March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-over-year, matching the pace of the previous month. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% -0.20% -0.27% 0.08% -0.30% -0.38% 0.09% EUR -0.10% -0.03% -0.10% 0.25% -0.13% -0.21% 0.26% GBP 0.20% 0.03% -0.31% 0.28% -0.10% -0.18% 0.29% JPY 0.27% 0.10% 0.31% 0.35% -0.02% -0.03% 0.46% CAD -0.08% -0.25% -0.28% -0.35% -0.68% -0.46% 0.00% AUD 0.30% 0.13% 0.10% 0.02% 0.68% -0.08% 0.41% NZD 0.38% 0.21% 0.18% 0.03% 0.46% 0.08% 0.46% CHF -0.09% -0.26% -0.29% -0.46% -0.01% -0.41% -0.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 5:

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The US economic calendar will feature the ISM Services PMI data for April on Monday before the Federal Reserve (Fed) conducts its two-day policy meeting from Tuesday. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.36% 0.27% 0.48% -0.39% -1.12% -0.23% -0.40% EUR -0.36% -0.15% 0.11% -0.76% -1.56% -0.58% -0.78% GBP -0.27% 0.15% 0.25% -0.60% -1.43% -0.44% -0.62% JPY -0.48% -0.11% -0.25% -0.84% -1.56% -2.09% -0.62% CAD 0.39% 0.76% 0.60% 0.84% -0.86% 0.17% -0.01% AUD 1.12% 1.56% 1.43% 1.56% 0.86% 1.00% 0.81% NZD 0.23% 0.58% 0.44% 2.09% -0.17% -1.00% -0.18% CHF 0.40% 0.78% 0.62% 0.62% 0.00% -0.81% 0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The US Dollar (USD) Index registered small losses on Friday but managed to end the week in positive territory. The data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 177,000 in April. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 130,000 but failed to boost the USD, as other details of the report showed that there were downward revisions to March and February NFP figures. The USD Index trades marginally lower on the day below 100.00 in the European morning. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said that they will lower tariffs on China "at some point" and added that they could announce trade deals this week when asked about it. Trump also noted that they could start imposing 100% tariffs on imports of foreign-produced movies. Finally, he argued that interest rates should be lowered but reiterated that he will not remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman before his term ends in May 2026. In the early European session on Monday, US stock index futures lose about 0.5% on the day, reflecting a risk-averse market atmosphere.Heightened geopolitical tensions also seem to be weighing on market mood on Monday. A missile landed near Israel Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday, and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for the strike. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond to the attack and said that Iran would also face consequences.Gold capitalizes on safe-haven flows to begin the week and trades above $3,260 in the early European session.EUR/USD failed to gather bullish momentum on Friday and ended the day virtually unchanged. The pair holds its ground and trades in a narrow channel above 1.1300. GBP/USD moves up and down in a tight channel slightly below 1.3300 after closing in negative territory last week.USD/JPY posted losses on Friday but gained nearly 1% for the week. The pair continues to correct lower on Monday and was last seen losing more than 0.4% near 144.30. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 95.42, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 95.50.

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The EUR/JPY cross extends the decline to around 163.50 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) on the rising safe-haven demand amid the economic uncertainty. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence is due later on Monday.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) on the rising safe-haven demand amid the economic uncertainty. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence is due later on Monday. Trading activity is expected to remain subdued on Monday due to a public holiday in Japan.US President Donald Trump reiterated that China was open to a trade deal but offered no concrete details or timeline. Additionally, Trump noted that the US has no plans to speak with Xi Jinping this week. Investor sentiment shifts sour due to persistent global trade uncertainties, which provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% by a unanimous vote and cut its growth forecast last week. The dovish guidance by the Japanese central bank might be the upside for the JPY in the near term. The BOJ slashed its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 0.5% from 1.1% projected three months ago. It also cut its growth forecast to a 0.7% expansion for the following fiscal year from 1.0% in January.On the EUR’s front, Eurozone inflation rose more than expected in April, potentially complicating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) path to lower interest rates further in the coming months. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank would be data dependent when making interest rate decisions. The ECB last cut interest rates in April, bringing its deposit facility rate to 2.25%, down from highs of 4.00% in mid-2023. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

EUR/GBP continues to climb for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 0.8530 during early European hours on Monday. The currency cross is gaining as the Euro (EUR) strengthens on the back of robust Eurozone inflation data, released on Friday.

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The currency cross is gaining as the Euro (EUR) strengthens on the back of robust Eurozone inflation data, released on Friday.According to Eurostat, the core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)—which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco—rose by 2.7% year-on-year in April, surpassing both the 2.5% market forecast and March’s 2.4% reading. The headline HICP also beat expectations, increasing by 2.2% annually versus the anticipated 2.1%. On a monthly basis, core and headline HICP rose by 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively.Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data, the impact on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook is expected to remain muted. Policymakers are increasingly focused on the broader economic slowdown, particularly amid the added pressure of new tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. Most ECB officials remain confident inflation will ease back to the 2% target this year, with markets continuing to price in a 25 basis point rate cut at the June meeting.At the same time, the British Pound (GBP) is facing pressure due to growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% during its policy meeting on Thursday. The dovish sentiment stems from several factors: lingering global uncertainty tied to US tariffs, a weakening UK labor market, partly due to rising employer social security contributions, and softer-than-expected inflation figures for March. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 3% below forecasts (3.1%) in April

Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (38%) in April: Actual (37.86%)

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $960.28 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $957.15.
In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $966.75 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, pretty much unchanged after the XPT/USD pair settled at $966.75 at the previous close.FXStreet Team

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in April: Actual (0%)

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 0% in April from previous 0.3%

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $56.13 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $58.16.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is stable, hovering around its previous daily close at $61.35.

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Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is stable, hovering around its previous daily close at $61.35. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 49.3 in April from previous 48.2

The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's upbeat US jobs data-inspired bounce from the 0.8200 neighborhood and attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week.

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Bears, however, seem reluctant to place fresh bets ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting.The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's upbeat US jobs data-inspired bounce from the 0.8200 neighborhood and attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, remain confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so and currently trade around the 0.8235-0.8230 region, down nearly 0.50% for the day. The better-than-expected release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report forced investors to push back their expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to July from June. The US Dollar (USD), however, remains depressed below a multi-week high touched last Thursday amid heightened economic uncertainty on the back of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. Apart from this, reviving safe-haven demand benefits the Swiss Franc (CHF) and contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/CHF pair. Despite hopes for the potential de-escalation of tensions between the US and China, Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies keeps investors on the edge. Apart from this, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and a fresh escalation of conflicts in the Middle East keep geopolitical risks in play. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets, which is evident from a weaker tone around the equity markets and supports the CHF. Bears, however, seem reluctant to place fresh bets around the USD/CHF pair ahead of this week's key central bank event risk. The Fed is scheduled to announce its policy decision at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors will look for cues about the central bank's further rate-cut path, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/CHF pair. In the meantime, Monday's release of the US ISM Services PMI will be looked upon to grab short-term opportunities later during the early North American session. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

FX option expiries for May 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1150 1.1b1.1200 2.4b1.1285 1.9b1.1300 1.9b1.1400 1bGBP/USD: GBP amounts     1.3500 422mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 145.50 1bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6300 904m0.6550 1bUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3865 1.2b1.3870 2.1bNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5900 757mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts        0.8525 821m

The GBP/USD pair gains traction to around 1.3290 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid heightened economic uncertainty in the wake of US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD attracts some buyers to near 1.3290 in Monday’s early European session. The positive view of the pair prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. The first upside barrier is seen at 1.3445; the initial support level is located at 1.3234.The GBP/USD pair gains traction to around 1.3290 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid heightened economic uncertainty in the wake of US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies. According to the daily chart, the bullish outlook of GBP/USD remains intact, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 55.60, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the upside. The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.3445, the high of April 28. Extended gains could see a rally to 1.3580, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle is located at 1.3642, the high of February 18, 2022. On the flip side, the low of April 23 at 1.3234 acts as an initial support level for a major pair. The key contention level to watch is the 1.3000 psychological level. The additional downside filter is seen at 1.2905, the 100-day EMA, followed by 1.2870, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -3.6% to 1.1% in March

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): -2.8% (March) vs previous 3%

The NZD/USD pair continues to climb for the second straight session, trading near 0.5970 during Monday’s Asian hours. The Kiwi pair gains momentum as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, with traders closely monitoring developments in US-China trade relations.

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The Kiwi pair gains momentum as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, with traders closely monitoring developments in US-China trade relations.Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump confirmed that trade negotiations were ongoing, although he clarified that no direct talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled for this week. On Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry indicated it is reviewing a US proposal to restart trade discussions.Trump’s latest remarks on tariffs have also caught market attention, particularly for US companies considering reshoring production from China. Speaking on Sunday, he acknowledged the economic impact of steep tariffs, stating, “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much.”Meanwhile, Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the economy added 177,000 jobs in April—beating expectations of 130,000, though down from a revised 185,000 in March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings grew 3.8% year-over-year, matching the previous month.In New Zealand, attention shifts to upcoming labor market data, with forecasts pointing to a rise in the unemployment rate. Such an outcome could reinforce expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the RBNZ’s meeting later this month, with interest rates projected to bottom out at 2.75% by October. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and climbs back closer to mid-1.1300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

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Bears might now wait for weakness below the 1.1265 region before placing fresh bets. The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and climbs back closer to mid-1.1300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). The mixed technical setup, however, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from a three-week low, around the 1.1265 region touched last Thursday.Last week's breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart – for the first time since early April – was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Oscillators on the daily chart are holding in bullish territory and have again started gaining positive traction on hourly charts. Hence, some follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the EUR/USD pair's recent corrective pullback from the 1.1575 area, or the highest level since November 2021 touched last week, has run its course.In the meantime, the aforementioned support breakpoint, currently pegged near the 1.1375 area, might now act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 1.1400 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow the EUR/USD pair to surpass the 1.1425-1.1430 intermediate barrier and aim toward reclaiming the 1.1500 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards challenging the multi-year peak, around the 1.1575 region touched on April 2021 en route to the 1.0600 mark.On the flip side, acceptance below the 1.1300 mark, leading to a subsequent break through the 1.1270-1.1265 region, or the multi-week low touched last Thursday, will reaffirm the negative bias. The EUR/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the 1.1200 round figure en route to the 1.1160-1.1155 area. The next relevant support is pegged near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around the 1.1125 zone, which if broken decisively should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move.EUR/USD 4-hour chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,824.17 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,784.65 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold increased to INR 102,923.40 per tola from INR 102,462.40 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,824.17 10 Grams 88,241.72 Tola 102,923.40 Troy Ounce 274,462.60   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts some safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions In an interview broadcast on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia has the means and strength to bring the Ukraine conflict to a logical conclusion. This comes ahead of Putin's unilaterally declared three-day ceasefire over May 8-10. Russia, however, had dismissed proposals from Ukraine and the US for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to respond to Yemen’s Houthi rebels ballistic missile attack that hit Ben Gurion International Airport on Sunday and added that Iran would also face consequences from the strike. Responding to this, Iran’s Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that Tehran would strike back if the US or Israel attacked. US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on all movies produced in foreign countries. His unpredictable trade stance unsettles investors, driving safe-haven flows that help gold extend its rebound from last week's low near the $3,200 round figure. Traders trimmed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as soon as in June following the better-than-expected release of the US jobs data on Friday, which showed that the economy added 177K jobs in April against 130K expected. Additional details revealed that the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, pointing to a still resilient US labor market. The US Dollar, however, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains depressed below a multi-week high touched last Thursday amid heightened economic uncertainty on the back of Trump's tariffs. This lends additional support to the XAU/USD pair ahead of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Furthermore, speeches from influential Fed officials later this week will be scrutinized for insights into the future monetary policy trajectory and drive the USD demand. In the meantime, the US ISM Services PMI on Monday, which, along with trade-related developments and geopolitical headlines, could produce some impetus to the XAU/USD pair on Monday.  FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers at the start of a new week and climbs to the $3,271 region during the Asian session amid a combination of supporting factors.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price regains positive traction on Monday as geopolitical risks revive safe-haven demand.The USD remains depressed below a multi-week high and further benefits the precious metal.The market focus now shifts to the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers at the start of a new week and climbs to the $3,271 region during the Asian session amid a combination of supporting factors. Against the backdrop of the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, an escalation of the Middle East conflict keeps the geopolitical risk in play. Furthermore, the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans weighs on investors' sentiment and benefits the traditional safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, the initial market reaction to the better-than-expected release of the US monthly jobs report on Friday fades rather quickly amid heightened economic uncertainty on the back of Trump's tariffs. Apart from this, bets for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed below a multi-week high touched last Thursday. This turns out to be another factor driving flows towards the non-yielding Gold price. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts some safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensionsIn an interview broadcast on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia has the means and strength to bring the Ukraine conflict to a logical conclusion. This comes ahead of Putin's unilaterally declared three-day ceasefire over May 8-10. Russia, however, had dismissed proposals from Ukraine and the US for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to respond to Yemen’s Houthi rebels ballistic missile attack that hit Ben Gurion International Airport on Sunday and added that Iran would also face consequences from the strike. Responding to this, Iran’s Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that Tehran would strike back if the US or Israel attacked.US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on all movies produced in foreign countries. His unpredictable trade stance unsettles investors, driving safe-haven flows that help gold extend its rebound from last week's low near the $3,200 round figure.Traders trimmed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as soon as in June following the better-than-expected release of the US jobs data on Friday, which showed that the economy added 177K jobs in April against 130K expected. Additional details revealed that the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, pointing to a still resilient US labor market. The US Dollar, however, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains depressed below a multi-week high touched last Thursday amid heightened economic uncertainty on the back of Trump's tariffs. This lends additional support to the XAU/USD pair ahead of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Furthermore, speeches from influential Fed officials later this week will be scrutinized for insights into the future monetary policy trajectory and drive the USD demand. In the meantime, the US ISM Services PMI on Monday, which, along with trade-related developments and geopolitical headlines, could produce some impetus to the XAU/USD pair on Monday. Gold price needs to surpass the $3,260-3,265 support-turned-resistance for bulls to regain short-term controlFrom a technical perspective, the precious metal last week showed some resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the move higher from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s. The subsequent bounce from the $3,200 neighborhood warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the $3,500 mark, or the all-time peak touched in April. Any further move up, however, is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the $3,260-3,265 horizontal support breakpoint, now turned resistance. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, could lift the Gold price to the $3,348-$3,350 supply zone en route to the $3,367-$3,368 intermediate hurdle and the $3,400 round figure.On the flip side, weakness below the $3,225 region (50% Fibo. level) might continue to find some support ahead of the $3,200 mark. A convincing break below the said handle would make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the downfall towards the $3,170-3,165 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. level and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.98% below forecasts (-0.89%) in 1Q

Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 4.87%, below expectations (4.91%) in 1Q

Silver price (XAG/USD) is pausing its four-day decline, trading near $32.10 during the Asian session on Monday. The precious metal is regaining ground as ongoing uncertainty around US-China trade talks fuels safe-haven demand.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver prices edge higher as persistent uncertainty over US-China trade talks drives demand for safe-haven assets.President Trump confirmed that negotiations are ongoing but noted no talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping are planned this week.A weaker US Dollar is enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like silver for foreign investors.Silver price (XAG/USD) is pausing its four-day decline, trading near $32.10 during the Asian session on Monday. The precious metal is regaining ground as ongoing uncertainty around US-China trade talks fuels safe-haven demand.On Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it is considering a proposal from the United States (US) to resume trade discussions. This comes after US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations were underway, although he clarified that no talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled for this week.The US Dollar (USD) has also weakened, boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like Silver for holders of other currencies. The Greenback is under pressure, partly due to escalating trade tensions, with Trump announcing plans for a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.However, Silver’s industrial demand prospects are clouded by deteriorating global economic data. The US economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% in Q1—its first decline in three years—while China’s NBS manufacturing PMI dropped to a 16-month low, driven by the sharpest fall in export orders since 2022.Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged despite Trump’s renewed push for a cut. Investors are also watching Monday’s US ISM Services PMI release for insight into the economic outlook. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground on Monday. The positive developments surrounding the US-India trade deal boost sentiment, supporting the Indian currency. Additionally, the fall in crude oil prices lifts the INR as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. 

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The positive developments surrounding the US-India trade deal boost sentiment, supporting the Indian currency. Additionally, the fall in crude oil prices lifts the INR as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Nonetheless, the rising tensions between India and Pakistan could drag the local currency lower. Pakistan's military said in a statement on Saturday that it had conducted a training launch of a "surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450 kilometers.” New Delhi has accused Islamabad of backing an attack on tourists in Kashmir last month.Looking ahead, the US April ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be the highlight on Monday. The attention will shift to the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to keep rates unchanged. Indian Rupee remains firm, bolstered by US-India trade talks and lower crude oil pricesIndia’s foreign exchange reserves climbed by $1.983 billion to $688.129 billion during the week ended April 25, marking the eighth consecutive weekly increase, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday.The RBI will buy bonds worth 750 billion rupees ($8.88 billion) this week, followed by two more purchases of 250 billion rupees later in the month.So far this year, it has purchased bonds worth 3.65 trillion Rupees via OMOs and 388 billion rupees in secondary market debt transactions. This unexpected liquidity injection is likely to aid policy transmission and boost growth amid global uncertainties, said Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist at DBS Bank.The Indian economy is estimated to grow at a steady 6.6% in the financial year 2025–26, according to Deloitte’s latest forecast.The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 177K in April, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This figure followed the 185K increase (revised from 228K) seen in March and came in above the market consensus of 130K. The US Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in April, as expected. The Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 3.8% YoY in the same reported period. Finally, the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.6% in April from 62.5% in March. Markets are now pricing in nearly 37% odds of a Fed cut in June, down from 64% a month ago. Goldman Sachs and Barclays both shifted their cut calls to July from June.USD/INR’s bearish bias lingers, oversold RSI warrants cautionThe Indian Rupee strengthens on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish tone on the daily chart, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves below the 30.00 mark, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary recovery cannot be ruled out. A decisive break below the limit of the descending trend channel potentially sets its sights back down to 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. Any follow-through selling below the mentioned level could see the next contention level at 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.On the flip side, the first upside target to watch is 85.14, the low of April 23, followed by 85.70, the 100-day EMA. A break above this zone could point to a possible trend reversal and pave the way to 86.25, the upper boundary of the trend channel.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

 

USD/CAD is holding steady around the 1.3800 level during Monday’s Asian session, following a decline in the previous trading day. Upside momentum for the pair may be capped as the US Dollar (USD) faces pressure, potentially due to renewed trade tensions.

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Upside momentum for the pair may be capped as the US Dollar (USD) faces pressure, potentially due to renewed trade tensions. President Donald Trump announced plans to instruct the US Trade Representative and Commerce Department to initiate a 100% tariff on foreign-made films.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, is on the back foot for the second straight day, trading near 99.70 at the time of writing. Market participants will turn their focus to the upcoming US ISM Services PMI data for further clues on the economic outlook.President Trump confirmed he has no intention of replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026. Despite calling Powell “a total stiff,” Trump reiterated his view that interest rates should eventually be cut.On the labor front, the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised to the upside, with 177,000 jobs added versus expectations of 130,000. This followed a revised increase of 185,000 in March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings grew 3.8% year-over-year, in line with the previous month.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) found support alongside other G10 currencies amid easing recession concerns. Canada’s GDP showed modest growth in March, despite falling commodity prices and fears surrounding a potential trade dispute with the US. The resilience in economic data has helped bolster sentiment toward the CAD. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a mild positive bias against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Monday amid reviving safe-haven demand, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.

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A modest USD downtick drags USD/JPY further away from a multi-week high touched on Friday. The BoJ’s dovish pause might cap JPY gains as focus shifts to the FOMC meeting this week. The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a mild positive bias against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Monday amid reviving safe-haven demand, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction. Despite signs of easing US-China trade tensions, US President Donald Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies keeps investors on the edge. Furthermore, geopolitical risks weigh on investors' sentiment and lend some support to the JPY. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness drags the USD/JPY pair back closer to the 144.00 mark during the Asian session.However, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish pause last Thursday might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. In fact, the BoJ slashed its forecasts for economic growth and inflation for the current year, forcing market participants to pare their bets for an immediate interest rate hike. Moreover, traders might refrain from placing aggressive USD bearish bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of a two-day FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday. This could act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair and limit any corrective slide from a multi-week high touched on Friday. Japanese Yen benefits from reviving safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical risks, trade uncertaintiesChina said last week it was evaluating the possibility of trade talks with the US, fueling hopes for the potential de-escalation of tensions between the world's two largest economies. US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced movies.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels firing a missile that landed near the Ben-Gurion Airport. In response, Iran’s Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that Tehran would strike back if the US or Israel attacked. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in remarks published on Sunday that Russia had sufficient strength and resources to take the war in Ukraine to its logical conclusion. This keeps the geopolitical risk in play and drives safe-haven flows toward the Japanese Yen on Monday. The Bank of Japan surprised with dovish guidance last Thursday and forced investors to scale back their bets for a rate hike in June or July. However, the broadening inflation in Japan and prospects of sustained wage hikes keep the door open for further policy tightening by the BoJ. The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest bounce that followed the upbeat US jobs data, which showed that the economy added 177K new jobs in April against 130K expected. Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2.The data pointed to a still resilient US labor market despite heightened economic uncertainty on the back of Trump's tariffs and concerns about renewed price pressures. Traders pushed back their expectations about the resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle to July from June. This, however, still marks a big divergence in comparison to expectations for additional rate hikes by the BoJ in 2025 and should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY. The market focus now shifts to a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday. USD/JPY technical setup backs prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers below the 144.00 round figureFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair last week struggled to find acceptance above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall and faced rejection near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 146.00 mark before positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery move from a multi-month low. Spot prices might then climb to the 146.55-146.60 intermediate resistance before aiming to test the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 147.00 neighborhood.Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart still hold in positive territory, suggesting that any subsequent fall below the 144.00 mark might still be seen as a buying opportunity. This should help limit the downside near Friday's swing low, around the 143.75-143.70 region, which if broken could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable. The subsequent slide could drag spot prices to the 143.30 intermediate support en route to the 143.00 round figure and the 23.6% Fibo., around the 142.65 region. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is extending its gains against the US Dollar (USD) for a second consecutive session on Monday.

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The AUD/USD pair is rising after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a second three-year term in the 2025 Federal Election, achieving significant gains in Saturday’s results.Labor Party leader Albanese has claimed a majority in parliament, with over 45% of the votes counted. His re-election marks the first time in decades that a leader has won back-to-back terms, defeating opposition leader Peter Dutton of the center-right Liberal-National coalition.Economic data also supported the AUD, with Australia’s Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) posting a reading of 51.0 in April. This indicates continued expansion for a seventh straight month, although the pace slowed from 51.6 in March. The Services PMI also came in at 51.0, marking fifteen consecutive months of growth.In external developments, China’s Commerce Ministry announced Friday that Beijing is considering a US offer to resume trade talks. This follows recent comments by US President Donald Trump, who claimed negotiations were already in progress. However, Trump added that he has no plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. Any signs of rising tensions between the US and China could negatively impact the AUD, given Australia’s strong trade ties with China.Meanwhile, US companies planning to shift production from China to domestic facilities may need to reassess, following Trump's latest comments on tariffs. Speaking over the weekend, Trump acknowledged the potential impact of high tariffs: “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much.”Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar struggles ahead of ISM Services PMIThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground for the second successive day, trading near 99.80 at the time of writing. Later in the day, traders will watch for the US ISM Services PMI for further direction.President Trump has confirmed that he will not seek to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026. Although Trump criticized Powell, calling him “a total stiff,” he maintained that interest rates should eventually be lowered.In other policy moves, Trump announced plans to instruct the US Trade Representative and the Commerce Department to initiate the process of imposing a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for April showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 177,000 jobs, following a revised gain of 185,000 in March. This exceeded the market forecast of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-over-year, matching the previous month’s figure.US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioned that Trump’s tariffs could have a "tremendously adverse" impact on the US economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the inverted yield curve, with two-year yields below the federal funds rate, supports the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday a trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion for March, significantly surpassing expectations of AUD 3.13 billion and the revised February figure of AUD 2.85 billion (down from AUD 2.97 billion). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% rise in exports and a 2.2% decline in imports for the month.Australia’s Retail Sales on Friday—a key indicator of consumer spending—increased by 0.3% month-over-month in March, up from a 0.8% rise in February (revised from 0.2%), according to data released Friday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). However, the figure fell short of market expectations, which had forecast a 0.4% gain.Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that markets still anticipate further interest rate cuts. “The market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he stated, adding that there’s “nothing in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations.”Inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as policymakers prepare for possible economic fallout from the recently introduced US tariffs.According to Bloomberg, China is considering renewed trade talks with the US. The Chinese Commerce Ministry noted that Washington has reached out to express interest in resuming negotiations. However, China is reportedly conducting an internal assessment and maintains that the US should correct its tariff-related actions, which it views as the unilateral trigger for the ongoing trade dispute.Australian Dollar rises toward 0.6500 near five-month highsThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6460 on Thursday, maintaining a bullish bias on the daily chart. The pair continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above 50, both suggesting sustained upward momentum.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could approach the five-month high at 0.6515, followed by the psychological level of 0.6600.The AUD/USD pair may find initial support at the nine-day EMA at 0.6408, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6326. A breach below these levels could weaken the bullish outlook and may expose the pair to 0.5914, the lowest since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% -0.22% -0.33% 0.03% -0.18% -0.46% -0.39% EUR 0.04% 0.10% -0.03% 0.34% 0.14% -0.15% -0.08% GBP 0.22% -0.10% -0.35% 0.24% 0.04% -0.25% -0.18% JPY 0.33% 0.03% 0.35% 0.36% 0.17% -0.05% 0.05% CAD -0.03% -0.34% -0.24% -0.36% -0.50% -0.49% -0.42% AUD 0.18% -0.14% -0.04% -0.17% 0.50% -0.29% -0.22% NZD 0.46% 0.15% 0.25% 0.05% 0.49% 0.29% 0.06% CHF 0.39% 0.08% 0.18% -0.05% 0.42% 0.22% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Speaking over the weekend on tariffs announced on Chinese imports, US President Donald Trump said that “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much.”

Speaking over the weekend on tariffs announced on Chinese imports, US President Donald Trump said that “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much.”When asked if there will be trade deals this week, he said there 'could be.”Additional commentsHas no plans to speak with Xi this week.Talking about other matters with China.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $55.75 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price falls after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to surge production by 411,000 barrels per day in June.

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The WTI price falls after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to surge production by 411,000 barrels per day in June.OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision follows a surprise move in April by agreeing to a bigger-than-expected output hike for May despite weak prices and slowing demand. Reuters reported that this could bring back to the market as much as 2.2 million barrels per day by November. Oil prices in April posted the biggest monthly loss since 2021, as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised concerns over a recession that will slow demand at the same time that OPEC+ is quickly increasing production.  Meanwhile, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle might cap the downside for the WTI. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against the Houthis after a missile fired by the group struck the grounds of Israel's main airport. Iran's Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said on Sunday that Tehran would strike back if the US or Israel attacked. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

 

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: 0.5% (April) vs 0.4%

EUR/USD is kicking off the week on a weaker note, trading near 1.1320 during the Asian session on Monday. US President Donald Trump confirmed he would not seek to remove Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026.

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US President Donald Trump confirmed he would not seek to remove Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026. While Trump criticized Powell, calling him “a total stiff,” he reiterated that interest rates should eventually be lowered.Additionally, the EUR/USD pair faces headwinds possibly from potential trade tensions. Trump announced plans to direct the US Trade Representative and Commerce Department to begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on foreign-produced movies.On the data front, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a stronger-than-expected rise of 177,000 jobs in April, following a revised 185,000 increase in March. This beat the market forecast of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings held at 3.8% year-on-year. Later on the day, traders will watch for the US ISM Services PMI for further direction.The Euro found some support on Friday after stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation figures. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices held steady at 2.2% year-over-year in April, slightly above the forecasted 2.1%. Services inflation accelerated to 3.9%, and core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 2.7%, both above expectations. These readings reinforced market expectations for a cumulative 60 basis points (bps) in European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts by year-end. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $3,245 during the early Asian session on Monday. The renewed concerns over the US recession and US-China trade relations provide some support to safe-haven assets like Gold.

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The renewed concerns over the US recession and US-China trade relations provide some support to safe-haven assets like Gold. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April will be in the spotlight later on Monday. While the Chinese Commerce Ministry indicated Beijing was considering an offer from the US to hold talks over US President Donald Trump's 145% tariffs, the two sides still seem far apart. Trump avoided answering the question if there will be trade deals this week, saying there 'could' be. The uncertainty surrounding tariff boosts the safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal. The rising bets that the Fed will cut its interest rate in June raise non-yielding bullion's appeal. "The labor report leaves little doubt that the FOMC will keep rates on hold this week, and the bar for cutting is now even higher for June," said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan.Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 177K in April, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This figure followed the 185K increase (revised from 228K) seen in March and came in above the market consensus of 130K. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in April, as expected, while the Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 3.8% YoY in the same reported period. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 

On the other hand, improved market sentiment and a risk-on trade could drag the yellow metal lower and lead to some profit-taking in Gold's safe-haven. Trump eased tensions with the US Fed, saying that he will not remove Jerome Powell as Fed Board Chairman before his term ends in May 2026. Nonetheless, Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed should cut interest rates at some point

Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) up to 3.3% in April from previous 2.8%

Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) fell from previous 0.7% to 0.6% in April

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band around the 1.3260-1.3265 area, near a one-week low touched during the Asian session.

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Aggressive Fed rate cut bets cap the recent USD move up and support the pair. The GBP bulls seem reluctant ahead of the BoE policy meeting on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band around the 1.3260-1.3265 area, near a one-week low touched during the Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive below a multi-week top amid heightened economic uncertainty on the back of US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Adding to this, the prospect of more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) further seems to undermine the Greenback. Despite the better-than-expected release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NF) report on Friday, investors seem convinced that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by 100 basis points by the end of this year. This, along with the optimism over the potential de-escalation of the US-China trade war, dents demand for the safe-haven buck. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place fresh bullish bets around the GBP/USD pair and opt to wait for this week's key central bank event risk – the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The UK central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and adopt a slightly dovish stance amid downside risks to growth from the trade war. Apart from this, traders this week will confront the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, Monday's release of the US ISM Services PMI will be looked upon to grab short-term opportunities later during the early North American session. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Thu May 08, 2025 11:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.25% Previous: 4.5% Source: Bank of England

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is set to further speed up oil output hikes. Citing five sources, Reuters reported that this could bring back to the market as much as 2.2 million barrels per day by November. 

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Citing five sources, Reuters reported that this could bring back to the market as much as 2.2 million barrels per day by November. The June increase from the eight will take the total combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations.The decision follows a surprise move in April by agreeing to a bigger-than-expected output hike for May despite weak prices and slowing demand.Market reactionAt the time of press, the WTI price was down 4.34% on the day at $55.65.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

US President Donald Trump said late Sunday that he is authorizing the US Trade Representative and the Commerce Department to begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on imports of foreign-produced movies.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} US President Donald Trump said late Sunday that he is authorizing the US Trade Representative and the Commerce Department to begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on imports of foreign-produced movies.Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.05% on the day at 99.98. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he will not remove Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve (Fed) Board Chairman before his term ends in May 2026. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he will not remove Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve (Fed) Board Chairman before his term ends in May 2026. Trump reiterated his belief that the US central bank should lower interest rates at some point. "Well, he should lower them. And at some point, he will. He'd rather not because he's not a fan of mine. You know, he just doesn't like me because I think he's a total stiff," said Trump.Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.05% on the day at 99.98. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.6450 during the Asian session on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD edges higher to near 0.6450 in Monday’s early Asian session. Albanese won a second term as Prime Minister in Federal Election results on Saturday. US NFP rose 177,000 in April, stronger than expected.The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.6450 during the Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Greenback after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese won a second three-year term in Federal Election 2025, making major gains in Federal Election results on Saturday. Labor Party leader and Prime Minister Albanese claimed a majority in the parliament on Saturday, with over 45% of the votes counted. Albanese became the first leader in decades to secure a second term, defeating opposition leader Peter Dutton of the centre-right Liberal-National coalition. The expectations of policy continuity under Albanese after his re-election for a second term could boost the Aussie in the near term.The attention will shift to a possible improvement in US-China trade relations. China’s Commerce Ministry said on Friday that Beijing is considering an offer from the US to engage in trade negotiations, a week after US President Donald Trump claimed talks were already underway. However, any signs of escalation between the world’s two largest economies could weigh on the China-proxy Aussie, as China is a major trading partner to Australia. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 177,000 in April. This figure followed the 185,000 increase (revised from 228,000) seen in March and came in above the market consensus of 130,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in April, as expected, while the Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 3.8% YoY in the same reported period. The US Dollar (USD) remains weak despite the upbeat US NFP report, as traders are concerned about China tariff headlines. Later on Monday, traders will keep an eye on the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April for fresh impetus.  Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 51, below expectations (51.4) in April

Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI below forecasts (51.4) in April: Actual (51)

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been re-elected as the country's leader in a general election on Saturday, becoming the first in decades to secure a second term. 

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Albanese defeated opposition leader Peter Dutton of the center-right Liberal-National coalition. Dutton also lost his seat in Dickson, Queensland, one he had held for 24 years.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is up 0.17% on the day at 0.6455. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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