Forex News Timeline

Friday, July 18, 2025

The USD/CAD pair is down 0.25% to near 1.3725 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair faces a slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) retraces after failing to extend its two-week rally.

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The Loonie pair faces a slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) retraces after failing to extend its two-week rally. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 98.30 from an over three-week high around 99.00.The US Dollar drops while investors seek fresh cues on trade talks between the United States (US) and the Eurozone. European Union (EU) trade chief Maros Sefcovic headed to Washington on Wednesday for fresh round of trade talks. Trade negotiations between both economies soured after US President Donald Trump imposed 30% tariffs on imports from the trading bloc last weekend.On the domestic front, growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer will continue to support the US Dollar.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to cut interest rates in the September meeting has reduced to 58% from 70.4% seen a week ago. Traders pared Fed dovish bets after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June showed that prices of goods rose that are largely imported.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades lower among risk-perceived currencies amid trade tensions between the US and Canada. Over the weekend, US President Trump imposed 30% tariffs on imports from Canada, which are separate from sectoral levies.  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Oil prices firmed yesterday despite a recovery in the USD amid waning concern that President Trump may remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from his position. Some fairly supportive US macro data also supported the Oil.

Oil prices firmed yesterday despite a recovery in the USD amid waning concern that President Trump may remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from his position. Some fairly supportive US macro data also supported the Oil. US retail sales came in stronger than expected, while initial jobless claims were lower than expected, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Near-term Oil fundamentals seem supportive"Near-term Oil fundamentals remain supportive, with the market set to remain fairly tight through this quarter, before becoming better supplied from the last three months of the year. In addition, drone attacks on Oil fields in Kurdistan provided some further support, with producers suspending operations, resulting in around 200k b/d of lost production. However, a deal between the government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan regional government should resume Oil exports from Kurdistan, after being halted since early 2023. The Kurdish region will supply Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) with at least 230k b/d.""The middle distillates market continues to signal tightness, with the ICE gasOil crack trading above US$26/bbl now. Meanwhile, Insights Global data shows that gasOil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region fell by 86kt week on week to 1.76mt. This is the lowest level since January 2024. The strength in the European middle distillate market is pulling in diesel from further afield, with reports of some shipments from East Asia to Europe. The strength in middle distillate cracks is providing a boost to refinery margins, which should see refiners increase run rates, helping to ease the tightness. In addition, OPEC+ supply increases will increase the availability of medium sour crude."

Silver (XAG/USD) is rallying for the third consecutive day on Friday, with bulls testing July 15 highs of 38.40 at the time of writing, as the US Dollar falls alongside US Treasury yields amid higher risk appetite.Corporate earnings reports from Netflix, the Chipmaker TSMC, PepsiCo, and United Airli

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Silver (XAG/USD) is rallying for the third consecutive day on Friday, with bulls testing July 15 highs of 38.40 at the time of writing, as the US Dollar falls alongside US Treasury yields amid higher risk appetite.

Corporate earnings reports from Netflix, the Chipmaker TSMC, PepsiCo, and United Airlines, among others, beat market expectations on Thursday, boosting demand for equities and risk-sensitive assets to the detriment of safe havens like the US Dollar.

These reports, coupled with dovish comments from Fed Governour Christopher Waller, who maintained that the bank should cut interest rates in July, citing downside risks for the labour market and economic growth, are contributing to keeping the US Dollar on the defensive on Friday.Technical Analysis: Correcting lower within a broader bullish trendFrom a technical perspective, the pair´s corrective reversal from long-term highs above $39.00 has been capped above the reverse trendline of a previous bullish channel, and the pair is trading higher again.

Bulls are testing the 15 July high at $38.40, with the 4-hour RSI steady at levels above 50, which suggests that further appreciation is likely. A confirmation above that level brings the July 14 high, at $39.15, to the focus.

A rejection from current levels, on the contrary, might find support at the mentioned trendline, now at $37.8, ahead of the July 15, 16, and 17 lows, at $37,60. Below here, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July rally, and the July 6 low, at $37.25, might attract selling pressure.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Japan’s upper house election on Sunday has turned into a pivotal event for JGBs and the Japanese Yen (JPY), ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Japan’s upper house election on Sunday has turned into a pivotal event for JGBs and the Japanese Yen (JPY), ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.USD/JPY has a chance to break 150.0"The recent jump in long-dated yields signals markets are likely pricing in a decent probability of PM Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition losing its majority, which would pave the way for his potential resignation, and for tax-cutting plans by opposition parties to become a reality. On those, opposition leaders have actually tried to calm markets by arguing for the fiscal sustainability of any expansionary measure. There are also risks that delicate US-Japan trade negotiations could stall.""If this outcome materialises, there should be some extra pressure on long-dated JGBs, which could pave the way for USD/JPY to break 150.0. Ultimately, not all fiscal worries may materialise and the negative spillover into JPY should eventually ease. For the near term, renewed dollar momentum and rising scepticism over the Fed’s capacity to cut rates are adding steam to the USD/JPY rally."

Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to claw back earlier losses as USD backpedalled on comments from Fed’s Waller. AUD was last at 0.6518, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to claw back earlier losses as USD backpedalled on comments from Fed’s Waller. AUD was last at 0.6518, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Mild bearish momentum observed "Earlier, there was downside surprise to AU labour market data – unemployment rate rose to 4-year high, employment change was +2k (vs. +20k expectations) while full time fell again -38.2k. Markets added to RBA rate cut profile -65bps for remainder of the year (vs. -56bps) while market continues to expect RBA to cut at the next MPC on 12 August. "Mild bearish momentum observed but RSI rose modestly. 2-way trades; bias to buy dips. Resistance at 0.6530/50 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo), 0.66 levels. Support at 0.6480 (50 DMA), 0.6420 (50% fibo retracement of 2024 high to 2025 low)."

Slowing momentum suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, Euro (EUR) is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 1.1585/1.1655 against US Dollars (USD).

Slowing momentum suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, Euro (EUR) is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 1.1585/1.1655 against US Dollars (USD). In the longer run, EUR weakness appears to have stabilised; for the time being, it is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1550/1.1720, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.EUR weakness appears to have stabilised24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected EUR to 'trade between 1.1580 and 1.1680.' Our expectation was incorrect, as EUR dipped to a low of 1.1555 and then rebounded. The rebound and slowing momentum suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, EUR is more likely to trade sideways, probably between 1.1585 and 1.1655."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our EUR view from negative to neutral yesterday (17 Jul, spot at 1.1630). We indicated that EUR 'weakness has stabilised.' We also indicated that 'for the time being, EUR is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1550/1.1720.' There is no change in our view."

The EU Commission's EUR 2tn budget proposal has continued to face harsh criticism from Germany, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The EU Commission's EUR 2tn budget proposal has continued to face harsh criticism from Germany, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.EUR to move to 1.150 in the near term"Chancellor Friedrich Merz admitted it will be a 'tough fight over the budget for the next two years'. The chances of Ursula von der Leyen’s proposal securing unanimous approval without being materially watered down look very slim.""That was, anyway, meant to be a long-term topic for the euro, which for now continues to track US developments amid dormant ECB rate expectations. But, next week’s ECB meeting may prove less dull than expected. A cut is highly unlikely given recent communication, but tariff risks and a strong euro could revitalise a dovish front that otherwise seemed settled on a neutral pivot.""That is another factor keeping us moderately bearish on EUR/USD, and we continue to favour a move to 1.150 in the near term."

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 87.38 on Friday, down from 87.52 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) declined to -1.68% in May from previous 1.7%

Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) dipped from previous 3% to 2.9% in May

The AUD/USD pair is building on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of mid-0.6400s, or a three-and-a-half-week trough, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD attracts strong follow-through buying on Friday amid a broadly weaker USD. Dovish remarks from Fed’s Waller and a positive risk tone weigh on the safe-haven buck.Trade uncertainties and reviving RBA rate cut bets could act as a headwind for the Aussie.The AUD/USD pair is building on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of mid-0.6400s, or a three-and-a-half-week trough, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction on Friday. The intraday move up remains uninterrupted through the first half of the European session and lifts spot prices further beyond the 0.6500 psychological mark.The US Dollar (USD) drifts lower in reaction to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, saying that the central bank should cut interest rates in July amid mounting risks to the economy. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, drags the safe-haven buck away from its highest level since June 23 touched on Thursday, and turns out to be a key factor that benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie.Investors, however, seem convinced that the Fed would delay cutting interest rates at least until September amid signs that the Trump administration's increasing import taxes are passing through to consumer prices. The bets were reaffirmed by comments from influential FOMC members on Thursday and the upbeat US macro data. This, in turn, could limit any meaningful USD corrective decline and act as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.Meanwhile, Thursday’s disappointing Australian employment details underscored a softening labor market. Adding to this, signs of weakness in the economy firmed market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates further. This should further contribute to capping the AUD/USD pair and warrants some caution for bulls. Traders now look forward to the US macro data for short-term impetus heading into the weekend. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.34% -0.16% 0.00% -0.19% -0.46% -0.45% -0.34% EUR 0.34% 0.19% 0.35% 0.14% -0.11% -0.23% 0.00% GBP 0.16% -0.19% 0.16% -0.02% -0.29% -0.37% -0.17% JPY 0.00% -0.35% -0.16% -0.18% -0.46% -0.56% -0.23% CAD 0.19% -0.14% 0.02% 0.18% -0.28% -0.34% -0.14% AUD 0.46% 0.11% 0.29% 0.46% 0.28% -0.08% 0.12% NZD 0.45% 0.23% 0.37% 0.56% 0.34% 0.08% 0.20% CHF 0.34% -0.00% 0.17% 0.23% 0.14% -0.12% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The US Dollar is trading with a moderate negative tone on Friday. The risk-on mood triggered by the upbeat US corporate earnings seen on Thursday has extended to Friday’s European session, boosting demand for equities and pulling US yields and the USD lower.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The Dollar pulls back from highs as upbeat corporate earnings boost investors' appetite for riskThe broader US Dollar trend remains positive, with the DXY on track to close its second consecutive week in green.The Dollar hit fresh three-week highs on Thursday, following strong US Retail Sales and lower Jobless claims data.The US Dollar is trading with a moderate negative tone on Friday. The risk-on mood triggered by the upbeat US corporate earnings seen on Thursday has extended to Friday’s European session, boosting demand for equities and pulling US yields and the USD lower.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against the most-traded currencies, is currently testing levels below 98.00 at the time of writing, down from the three-week high of 98.50 reached on Friday.

The broader trend, however, remains positive, with the DXY moving 0.55% above the weekly opening and on track to close its second consecutive weekly gain.Strong corporate earnings boosted risk appetiteUS corporate earnings boosted risk appetite on Thursday. Netflix results beat expectations, TSMC, the major AI chipmaker, showed its best quarterly performance on record, and reports from other firms like PepsiCo and United Airlines contributed to lifting market sentiment.

Beyond that, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his call for lower interest rates during the late US trading session and increased bearish pressure on the US Dollar.Somewhat earlier, the DXY hit a fresh three-week high after US Retail Sales figures for June and Weekly Jobless claims data confirmed that consumption and employment remain resilient, providing a cover to Fed Powell to keep interest rates unchanged for some time. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.38% -0.19% 0.00% -0.19% -0.49% -0.46% -0.41% EUR 0.38% 0.21% 0.40% 0.19% -0.11% -0.19% -0.02% GBP 0.19% -0.21% 0.18% 0.00% -0.30% -0.33% -0.21% JPY 0.00% -0.40% -0.18% -0.19% -0.49% -0.57% -0.31% CAD 0.19% -0.19% -0.00% 0.19% -0.31% -0.35% -0.22% AUD 0.49% 0.11% 0.30% 0.49% 0.31% -0.05% 0.08% NZD 0.46% 0.19% 0.33% 0.57% 0.35% 0.05% 0.13% CHF 0.41% 0.02% 0.21% 0.31% 0.22% -0.08% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a down to €1B in May from previous €19.3B

Eurozone Current Account s.a registered at €32.3B, below expectations (€34.8B) in May

The Pound is keeps marching higher for the second consecutive day as the Japanese Yen struggles, hammered by a mix of lack of progress in the trade talks with the US, rising political uncertainty, and easing inflationary trends, which muddle the BoJ’s monetary policy outlook.The broad-based Yen weak

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound appreciates on Yen weakness and hits fresh year-to-date highs above 199.85.Risk appetite, political uncertainty, and the threat of higher tariffs are hammering the Yen.Softer Japanese inflation data puts further BoJ tightening into question.The Pound is keeps marching higher for the second consecutive day as the Japanese Yen struggles, hammered by a mix of lack of progress in the trade talks with the US, rising political uncertainty, and easing inflationary trends, which muddle the BoJ’s monetary policy outlook.

The broad-based Yen weakness and the positive risk sentiment seen on Friday us contributing to extend the British Pound’s rally, which has reached levels right above the June 9 high, at 199.83, although it has not confirmed above it yet.

The Japanese yen is coming under pressure with investors increasingly wary about the outcome of this weekend’s House of Councillors Elections. The latest polls suggest that Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition is likely to lose its majority in parliament, which will lead to political uncertainty.
investors'Apart from that, the trade negotiations with the US are showing a lack of progress, fueling investors' anxiety about the possibility of facing 25% tariffs from August 1. Such levies are a significant threat to a strongly trade-dependent economy, like that of Japan, and an additional weight on the JPY.

Finally, recent Consumer Price Index data revealed that core inflation eased to 3.3% from the 29-month high at 3.7% amid lower rice prices. The headline inflation moderated to a 3.3% year-on-year reading from May’s 3.5%, which puts further BoJ tightening into question. Economic Indicator National Consumer Price Index (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.3% Consensus: - Previous: 3.5% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.3% Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 3.7% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 18:The action in financial markets remain relatively subdued early Friday and the US Dollar (USD) Index consolidates its weekly gains at around 98.50. In the second half of the day, Housing Starts and Building Permits data for June will be featured in the US economic calendar. Later in the American session, the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment Index for July. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.37% 0.45% 1.06% 0.27% 0.89% 0.76% 0.64% EUR -0.37% 0.06% 0.71% -0.11% 0.51% 0.36% 0.26% GBP -0.45% -0.06% 0.58% -0.17% 0.45% 0.33% 0.33% JPY -1.06% -0.71% -0.58% -0.67% -0.17% -0.24% -0.38% CAD -0.27% 0.11% 0.17% 0.67% 0.61% 0.50% 0.37% AUD -0.89% -0.51% -0.45% 0.17% -0.61% -0.15% -0.25% NZD -0.76% -0.36% -0.33% 0.24% -0.50% 0.15% -0.13% CHF -0.64% -0.26% -0.33% 0.38% -0.37% 0.25% 0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The USD gathered strength against its rivals on the back of upbeat macroeconomic data releases on Thursday. Retail Sales in the US rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis in June, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 0.1% by a wide margin, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 221,000 from 228,000 in the previous week. The USD Index gained more than 0.3% on the day and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes both closed at new record highs, rising 0.55% and 0.75%, respectively.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he continues to believe that the Fed should cut its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks and the strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a persistent rise in price pressures.After touching its lowest level in three weeks below 1.1560 on Thursday, EUR/USD benefits from the modest USD weakness early Friday and trades in positive territory above 1.1600. The European economic calendar will feature Construction Output data for May.GBP/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.3400 after closing virtually unchanged on Thursday.AUD/USD stages a rebound after posting large losses on Thursday and trades at around 0.6500 in the European session on Friday. Following Wednesday's sharp decline, USD/JPY rose about 0.5% on Thursday. The pair holds its ground early Friday and edges higher toward 149.00.Gold dropped below $3,310 in the early American session on Thursday but erased a large portion of its daily losses to close near $3,340. XAU/USD struggles to find direction early Friday and fluctuates in a narrow channel near $3,345. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

The AUD/JPY pair climbs to near 96.80 during the European trading session on Friday. The cross demonstrates strength as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board amid uncertainty surrounding elections in Japan on Sunday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY advances to near 96.80 as uncertainty surrounding Japan’s elections has weighed on the Japanese Yen.Inflation in Japan grew at a moderate pace in June.Weak Australian employment data paves the way for interest rate cuts by the RBA.The AUD/JPY pair climbs to near 96.80 during the European trading session on Friday. The cross demonstrates strength as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board amid uncertainty surrounding elections in Japan on Sunday. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.24% -0.12% 0.16% -0.09% -0.27% -0.28% -0.26% EUR 0.24% 0.14% 0.38% 0.15% -0.03% -0.15% -0.01% GBP 0.12% -0.14% 0.26% 0.03% -0.15% -0.24% -0.13% JPY -0.16% -0.38% -0.26% -0.23% -0.42% -0.53% -0.30% CAD 0.09% -0.15% -0.03% 0.23% -0.21% -0.27% -0.16% AUD 0.27% 0.03% 0.15% 0.42% 0.21% -0.08% 0.03% NZD 0.28% 0.15% 0.24% 0.53% 0.27% 0.08% 0.11% CHF 0.26% 0.01% 0.13% 0.30% 0.16% -0.03% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Market sentiment has been spooked towards the Japanese currency amid fears that Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose its majority, a scenario that will bring political uncertainty into the economy.This comes at a time when the United States (US) has imposed 25% tariffs on imports from the Asia-Pacific nation, which are separate from sectoral levies.Additionally, an expected slowdown in Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for June has also weighed on the Japanese Yen. The inflation report showed earlier in the day that the National CPI decelerated to 3.3% from 3.5% in May. National CPI excluding Fresh Food, which is closely tracked by Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials, grew at a slower pace of 3.3%, as expected, against the prior reading of 3.7%.Moderate Japan’s inflation growth could derail BoJ’s ambitions of raising interest rates again this year.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades firmly even as Australian labor market conditions have cooled down. The employment report showed on Thursday that the Unemployment Rate came in higher at 4.3%, against expectations and the prior reading of 4.1%. The number of fresh workers added in June was 2K, while economists anticipated fresh hiring of 20K job-seekers. In May, the Australian labor force was reduced by 1.1K.Cooling labor market expectations have prompted traders to raise bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the policy meeting in August. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.3% Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 3.7% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks up slightly on Friday, but remains near an over two-month low around 1.3375 during the European trading session The outlook of the GBP/USD pair, which is set to close in the red for a third consecutive week, remains vulnerable due to growing concerns about the United

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The jobless rate has risen since April, when the increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes announced by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves in the Autumn Statement came into effect.Meanwhile, a less-than-expected drop in payrolls in the three months ending May suggests that labor market conditions are not as weak as they appeared. According to the employment report, the number of workers laid off was revised lower to 25K from prior estimates of 109K.Average Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, grew almost in line with estimates. Rising jobless rate and easing wage growth suggest that employers are adjusting their labor policies to offset the impact of the increase in their social security cost.Cooling labor market conditions should allow Bank of England (BoE) officials to argue in favor of reducing interest rates. However, this could be difficult at a time when inflationary pressures have accelerated significantly. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed on Wednesday that price pressures grew at a faster-than-projected pace.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling struggles against US DollarSelling pressure on the GBP/USD pair is also driven by strength in the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks down on the day but trades near an over three-week high, slightly below 99.00.The Greenback is buoyed as traders have pared Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets after the latest CPI data showed that tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in the September meeting has fallen to 58% from the 70.4% seen a week ago. For July, the tool shows that the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.Market experts believe that inflation has started accelerating due to sectoral levies announced by US President Trump and that the effect could be even larger from August 1, when higher tariffs on several nations will become effective.The US CPI report for June also showed earlier this week that prices of goods that are largely imported have increased sharply. On Wednesday, New York Fed Bank President John Williams warned that tariffs could boost inflation by “one percentage point rest of 2025 into 2026”.Contrary to market expectations, Fed Governor Christopher Waller continued to argue in favor of reducing interest rates in the policy meeting later this month, citing concerns over the economy and job market, while assuring that the tariff impact will be limited and will fade next year. “The Fed should cut interest rates 25 basis points at the July meeting as rising risks to the economy and employment favour easing policy rate,” Waller said on Thursday.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling trades below 20 and 50-day EMAsThe Pound Sterling wobbles near the two-month low around 1.3370 against the US Dollar on Friday. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair is bearish as it trades below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 1.3540 and 1.3470, respectively.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates around 40.00, indicating a strong bearish momentum.Looking down, the May 12 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 11 high around 1.3585 will act as a key barrier.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The EUR/GBP cross gains ground to near 0.8655 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) as the UK Unemployment Rate hits the highest level in four years.

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The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) as the UK Unemployment Rate hits the highest level in four years. Traders await the German Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Eurozone Current Account, which will be published later on Friday. The UK Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.7% in the three months to May versus 4.5% prior, the UK Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday. This figure came in below the expectations of 4.6% during the reported period. Analysts expect the UK jobs market to continue to weaken, making the prospect of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next month even more likely. This, in turn, could exert some selling pressure on the GBP in the near term. Money markets are now pricing in nearly an 89% odds that the UK central bank will lower borrowing costs in August, up from an 87% chance on Wednesday. Analysts expected the BoE to deliver two interest rate reductions by the end of the year, which would take the bank rate down to 3.75%.On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to delay its final interest-rate cut until December without investors concluding in the meantime that easing is over, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank is in a “good place” to navigate any challenges to economic growth and inflation that may arise. However, there’s less of a consensus beyond the summer. Traders see a less than 50% possibility of a reduction in September. A rate cut is almost fully priced by year-end. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $66.38 per barrel, up from Thursday’s close at $66.30.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $68.89 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $68.96.

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Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $68.89 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $68.96. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (-1.3%) in June

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0%) in June: Actual (0.1%)

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $66.40 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices receive support from concerns over supply risks.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price gains ground amid rising threats over supply concerns.Iran-backed militias are believed to be behind this week’s attacks on oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan.US crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 552,000-barrel draw.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $66.40 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices receive support from concerns over supply risks.According to a Reuters report, Iran-backed militias the likely behind the attacks on the oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan this week; however, no group has claimed responsibility. As a result, Oil production in the semi-autonomous region has been cut by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, more than half of its usual output of around 280,000 bpd, according to two energy officials.Additionally, US crude inventories dropped by 3.9 million barrels last week, according to the government data, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 552,000-barrel draw. The International Energy Agency noted last week that rising output has not translated into higher inventories, signaling robust demand.JPMorgan analysts reported that seasonal travel activity has also supported the market. In the first half of July, global Oil demand averaged 105.2 million barrels per day, up 600,000 bpd year-on-year and in line with projections, per Reuters.ING analysts on Friday said that near-term Oil fundamentals are likely to remain supportive, with the market expected to stay relatively tight through the current quarter before easing somewhat in the final three months of the year. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The US Commerce Department said on Friday that it will impose preliminary anti-dumping duties on imports of Chinese graphite, which are a key component for electric vehicle batteries, after concluding that the materials had been unfairly subsidized, per Bloomberg.

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The USD/CHF pair tumbles to around 0.8030 during the early European session on Friday. Persistent trade tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy uncertainty boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF).

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Persistent trade tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy uncertainty boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be the highlight later on Friday. Also, the US Building Permits and Housing Starts will be released. Concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, the US fiscal and debt outlook, and the Fed’s independence provide some support to the safe-haven assets like the CHF and act as a headwind for the pair. Trump said on Wednesday that he intends to send a letter telling more than 150 trade partners what tariff rate they will face.  Data release on Thursday indicated strength in the US economy. The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 came in at 221,000, marking a decline of 7,000 from the previous week, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, US Retail Sales rose more than expected in June, the US Census Bureau showed. Retail sales rose by 0.6% MoM in June versus -0.9% in May, beating the 0.1% estimate.Strong US economic data supported the view that the Fed can afford to wait a while longer before cutting interest rates again, which might underpin the US Dollar (USD). Financial markets are now pricing in a September starting date for rate cuts, and Fed officials penciled in two easings later this year, according to Reuters. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The USD/CAD pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a three-and-a-half-week high, around the 1.3775 region touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, lack bearish conviction and trade just below mid-1.3700s, down less than 0.10% for the day.

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The USD/CAD pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a three-and-a-half-week high, around the 1.3775 region touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, lack bearish conviction and trade just below mid-1.3700s, down less than 0.10% for the day.The US Dollar (USD) retreats slightly from its highest level since June 23 in reaction to dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, saying that the central bank should cut its interest rate target in July. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood turns out to be another factor acting as a headwind for the safe-haven buck and exerting some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive amid bets that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer amid inflationary concerns. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, might struggle to attract strong follow-through buyers on the back of persistent trade-related uncertainties. In fact, Trump announced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, which will go into effect on August 1.Trump added that levies would increase further if Canada retaliated. Adding to this, a 50% tariff on US copper imports should keep a lid on the CAD and offer support to the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices edge higher and look to build on the overnight bounce, though the upside remains limited. This might further contribute to capping the commodity-linked Loonie and limiting losses for the USD/CAD pair. Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, along with housing market data. Moreover, the broader risk sentiment will drive the USD. Adding to this, Oil price dynamics should provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register modest gains for the second straight week. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The NZD/USD pair rises 0.4% to near 0.5955 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The Kiwi pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its over two-week rally amid uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD gains to near 0.5955 as the US Dollar takes a breather after gains for over two weeks.Fed Waller reiterates the need to reduce interest rates in the policy meeting later this month.Investors await NZ’s Q2 CPI data, which will be released on Monday.The NZD/USD pair rises 0.4% to near 0.5955 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The Kiwi pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its over two-week rally amid uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).US President Donald Trump expressed confidence on Wednesday that there is a possibility of a trade deal with the EU. Meanwhile, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic has headed to Washington for a fresh round of trade talks. Last weekend, Trump imposed 30% tariffs on imports from the trading bloc.On the domestic front, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller has reiterated views that the central bank should cut interest rates in the July policy meeting. “The Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at July meeting as rising risks to economy and employment favour easing policy rate,” Waller said on Thursday in a gathering at New York University.Contrary to Waller’s remarks, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed is certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting later this month.In New Zealand (NZ), investors await the Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be published on Monday. The CPI report is expected to show that inflationary pressures grew at a moderate pace of 0.6%, compared to a 0.9% increase seen in the first quarter.NZD/USD attracts bids near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 0.5910. However, the overall trend remains bearish as the 20- and 50-day EMAs slope downwards.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI falls below that level.Going forward, a downside move by the pair below the June 23 low of 0.5883 will expose it to the May 12 low of 0.5846, followed by the round-level support of 0.5800.In an alternate scenario, the Kiwi pair would rise towards the June 19 high of 0.6040 and the September 11 low of 0.6100 if it manages to return above the psychological level of 0.6000.NZD/USD daily chart 
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (QoQ) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics New Zealand on a quarterly basis, measures changes in the price of goods and services bought by New Zealand households. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. A high reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Sun Jul 20, 2025 22:45 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.6% Previous: 0.9% Source: Stats NZ Why it matters to traders? With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) inflation target being around the midpoint of 2%, Statistics New Zealand’s quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) publication is of high significance. The trend in consumer prices tends to influence RBNZ’s interest rates decision, which in turn, heavily impacts the NZD valuation. Acceleration in inflation could lead to faster tightening of the rates by the RBNZ and vice-versa. Actual figures beating forecasts render NZD bullish.

The Indian Rupee (INR) revisits a three-week low at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 86.25, while the US Dollar holds onto gains near its immediate highs.

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The USD/INR pair jumps to near 86.25, while the US Dollar holds onto gains near its immediate highs.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to gains near an over three-week high around 99.00.The US Dollar trades firmly as traders have pared bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September meeting, following signs of accelerating inflationary pressures from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to cut interest rates in the September meeting has reduced to 58% from 70.4% seen a week ago. The tool also shows that the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting later this month.The US CPI report showed on Wednesday that prices of products that are mainly imported into the economy have risen after the adjustment of sectoral tariffs.Contrary to market expectations, Fed Governor Christopher Waller continues to argue in favor of reducing interest rates in the July policy meeting, citing downside risks to the economy and labor market. “The Fed should cut interest rates 25 basis points at the July meeting as rising risks to the economy and employment favour easing policy rate,” Waller said. He added that the Fed should not wait until “labour market hits trouble before cutting rates”.Another reason behind the strength in the US Dollar is the upbeat Retail Sales data for June in times when market experts anticipated that higher tariffs would have bitten households’ spending power. The Census Bureau reported on Thursday that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose at a faster pace of 0.6% on the month, compared to estimates of 0.1%. In May, the consumer spending measure declined by 0.9%.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee underperforms US DollarThe Indian Rupee slumps against the US Dollar to around 86.20, while investors await the confirmation of a trade deal between the US and India. US President Donald Trump has expressed confidence a number of times that Washington is very close to striking a trade pact with New Delhi.However, the delay in confirmation of a bilateral deal by economies has kept Indian businesses on edge. Indian companies that export a major chunk of their output to the US have been reluctant to pursue their investment plans amid uncertainty surrounding the likely tariff rate.On the so-called “Liberation Day” on April 2, US President Trump imposed 26% tariffs on imports from India, which were later paused for 90 days to allow Indian delegates to strike a deal.The impact of the trade deal cliffhanger is also visible in Indian equity markets, which have been demonstrating a sluggish performance over the last two months. Nifty50 has traded in almost 5% range since May 12, which had a sharp run of over 13% from April 7. On Friday, the 50-stock basket opens 0.2% down, striving to hold the psychological level of 25,000.So far, the US has closed deals with the United Kingdom (UK), Vietnam, and Indonesia, and a limited pact with China. The economy has announced reciprocal tariffs on 22 nations, notably Japan, the European Union (EU), Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, which are its leading trading partners, as they failed to close a deal during the 90-day tariff pause period.Technical Analysis: USD/INR jumps to near 86.25USD/INR reclaims three-week high around 86.25 on Friday. The pair strengthens after attracting bids near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 86.00.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI breaks above that level.Looking down, the 50-day EMA near 85.85 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the June 24 low at 86.42 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
 

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds mild losses after two days of gains, trading around $38.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

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The non-interest-bearing Silver attracts some sellers as the upbeat economic data from the United States (US) has dampened the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) easing monetary policy. It is important to note that higher interest rates make precious metal Silver less attractive for investors seeking higher returns. US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 3.9%, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May. Moreover, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 fell to 221K from 228K, and came in below the expected 235K.Furthermore, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler noted that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate of interest steady “for some time,” given low unemployment and building price pressure from tariffs. Kugler highlighted that inflation remains above the 2% target, and the labor market is stable and resilient.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that rate cuts twice this year are a "reasonable" outlook, while cautioning against waiting too long. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he believes that the Fed should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.The safe-haven Silver may regain its ground amid prevailing global trade tensions. US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that he plans to send letters to over 150 countries, notifying them of a 10% tariff rate they will face. He also hinted the rate could rise to 15–20%, though he did not confirm any specifics. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,235.39 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,247.09 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 107,719.80 per tola from INR 107,856.20 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,235.39 10 Grams 92,353.87 Tola 107,719.80 Troy Ounce 287,252.90   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Gold daily market movers: Extends losses on upbeat US jobs data US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 dipped from 228K on the previous print to 221K, below forecasts of 235K. The data support the Fed’s cautious stance, as the labor market remains healthy, although it hasn’t been cited as a cause for inflation. Retail Sales in June exceeded forecasts of 0.1% MoM, rose by 0.6% MoM and crushed May’s 0.9% plunge as some of the increase is a reflection of higher prices due to tariffs. Inflation on the consumer side revealed earlier in the week that prices are edging higher Fed Governor Adriana Kugler added to her hawkish remarks that inflation remains above target, while the labor market remains stable and resilient. She added that CPI inflation is broadening to core goods. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented that the economy is in a good place and that, despite restrictive rates, the June CPI began to show the effect of tariffs. Despite this, she added that duties might have a muted impact on inflation and that she still favors two rate cuts. US Treasury yields remain flat on Thursday, with the US 10-year Treasury yield, which typically correlates negatively with Gold, steady at 4.461%. However, Bullion prices remain weighed by the strength of the Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.45% at 98.72. Interest rate probability indicates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current rates, with odds standing at 95% for a hold and 5% for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the July 30 meeting. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $3,309 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday.

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The US Dollar (USD) moved further away from its highest level since June 23, touched on Thursday following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller. Apart from this, concerns about US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and their impact on the global economy turn out to be key factors acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven commodity.Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive amid bets that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer amid the evidence that the Trump administration's increasing import taxes are passing through to consumer prices. This, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the non-yielding yellow metal and warrants caution before positioning for any further gains. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair, at current levels, remains on track to register modest losses for the first time in three weeks.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls seem reluctant as positive risk tone offsets modest USD weaknessFederal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that rising risks to the economy favour easing the policy rate. The central bank should cut its interest rate target in July amid evidence that the labour market is growing weaker, Waller added further. This, in turn, exerts some downward pressure on the US Dollar during the Asian session on Friday.Meanwhile, traders are pricing in the possibility of 50 basis points worth of policy easing by the Fed this year. Furthermore, growing worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Trump recently announced a 50% tariff on copper imports into the US.Adding to this, Trump notified leaders of 25 countries about new tariff rates that will kick in on August 1, and also plans to send letters to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%. This should keep investors on edge and warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful depreciating move for the precious metal. On the economic data front, the US Commerce Department reported on Thursday that Retail Sales rose 0.6% in June, defying market expectations and signaling a modest rebound in consumer spending. This marked a significant improvement after a 0.9% fall in May and a 0.1% dip in April, providing a glimmer of optimism for an economy that has been struggling. Adding to this, US Initial Jobless Claims dropped for the fifth straight week, to 221,000 during the week ending July 12, or the lowest level in three months. This suggested that the US labor market remains resilient despite worries about the inflationary effect of higher US tariffs, reaffirming bets that the Fed could delay cutting interest rates and favoring the USD bulls.Fed governor Adriana Kugler said that the still-restrictive policy stance is important to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored, and it will be appropriate to hold the policy rate at the current level for some time. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain and rate cuts might be difficult in the short run. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the upcoming policy meeting later this month. This, in turn, could act as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the release of the Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations to grab short-term opportunities. Gold price remains confined in multi-week-old range; $3,365-3,366 pivotal hurdle holds the key for bullsFrom a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action witnessed since the beginning of this month constitutes the formation of a rectangle chart pattern and points to indecision among traders. Moreover, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Hence, any further slide might continue to find decent support ahead of the $3,300 round figure. A convincing break below, however, could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the July swing low, around the $3,248-3,247 zone.On the flip side, any positive move beyond the $3,352 immediate hurdle could attract fresh buyers and remain capped near the $3,365-3,366 region, or the top boundary of the short-term trading range. A subsequent move beyond the latter, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. The upward trajectory could extend further towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 area. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength to around 172.80 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid reduced Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike bets. 

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid reduced Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike bets. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) highlights the challenge the BoJ faces in balancing mounting inflationary pressure and risks to the fragile economy from US tariffs, as it considers how soon to resume rate hikes from still-low levels.Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 70.50, indicating the overbought RSI condition. This suggests neutral momentum, indicating that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/JPY appreciation.On the bright side, the first upside barrier for the cross emerges at  173.25, the high of July 16. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 173.55, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for 174.52, the high of July 3, 2024. On the other hand, the initial support level for EUR/JPY is located at the 170.00 psychological level. A breach of this level could expose 169.04, the low of July 2.  The additional downside filter to watch is 168.10, the low of June 25.EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is retracing its recent gains from the previous session and hovering around 98.50 during the Asian hours on Friday.

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Traders will likely observe the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts later in the day.The Greenback loses ground amid easing risk aversion following the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Moreover, Financial markets are now pricing in a September starting date for Fed rate cuts, according to Reuters.On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly called two rate cuts this year a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly also added that rates will eventually settle at 3% or higher, which is higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate.Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed should cut interest rates 25 basis points at the July meeting. Waller also noted that rising risks to the economy favor easing the policy rate. If underlying inflation remains in check and growth tepid, more cuts are needed, he added.However, FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler noted that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate of interest steady “for some time,” given low unemployment and building price pressure from tariffs. Kugler highlighted that inflation remains above the 2% target, and the labor market is stable and resilient.However, the upbeat economic data from the United States (US) has trimmed the odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) easing monetary policy. US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 3.9%, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May. Moreover, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 fell to 221K from 228K, and came in below the expected 235K. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said on Friday that the economic and trade relations between the Unites States have gone through storms, but remain important to each other.

China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said on Friday that the economic and trade relations between the Unites States have gone through storms, but remain important to each other.Key quotesChina-US economic and trade relations have gone through storms, remain important to each other.
US since 2018 has adopted more unilateral, protectionist measures provoking frictions.
Mutual benefit is the essence of US-China commercial ties.
Decoupling is doomed to fail as it contradicts economic development.
Differences and frictions inevitable, dialogue and consultation best way to fix problems.
Some things are irreplacable, at least in the short term.
Key is to respect each others’ core interests, major concerns.
Geneva agreement, London framework effectively stabilised commercial ties, cooled down tensions. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.31% higher on the day to trade at 0.6508.

EUR/USD recovers its recent losses registered in the previous day, trading around 1.1630 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid easing risk sentiment following the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid easing risk sentiment following the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Moreover, Financial markets are now pricing in a September starting date for rate cuts, and Fed officials penciled in two easing moves later this year, according to Reuters.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that two rate cuts this year are a "reasonable" outlook, while cautioning against waiting too long. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he believes that the Fed should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.However, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said the US central bank should hold off on cutting interest rates "for some time," noting that the impact of Trump-era tariffs is beginning to appear in consumer prices. Kugler emphasized that maintaining a restrictive monetary policy is crucial to keeping inflation expectations anchored.Meanwhile, traders keep their eyes on trade developments between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), expecting that an agreement could be finalized before August 1. US President Donald Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports, though he expressed willingness to negotiate.Markets widely expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week. However, markets are still pricing in one additional 25 basis point rate cut later this year. Several ECB policymakers signaled mixed sentiment over rate cuts. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

GBP/USD gains ground after registering small losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3440 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates will eventually settle at 3% or higher, which is higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.However, the US Dollar gained ground following the stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data released on Thursday. US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 3.9%, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts will be eyed later on Friday.The GBP/USD pair also drew support as the Pound Sterling (GBP) received support from a mixed United Kingdom (UK) job market report, which showed more employment levels but also a higher unemployment rate.The UK ILO Unemployment rose to 4.7% in the three months to May, against the market expectations of remaining unchanged at 4.6%. Claimant Count Change showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased 25.9K in June, compared with a revised increase of 15.3K in May, above the expected 17.9K figure. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains close to an over three-month low touched earlier this week.

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Traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of Japan's upper house election over the weekend. In the meantime, the JPY moves little following the release of the latest consumer inflation figures from Japan earlier today. The growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would forgo raising interest rates this year continues to act as a headwind for the JPY. Apart from this, the risk-on environment contributes to capping the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, trades with a negative bias below its highest level since June 23, touched on Thursday in the wake of Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller's dovish remarks and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.Japanese Yen struggles for a firm intraday direction amid domestic political uncertaintyHouse of Councillors elections are scheduled to be held in Japan this Sunday, on July 20. This is seen as a critical mid‑term test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s embattled coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito.Recent media polls suggest that the shaky minority government will likely lose its majority, heightening the risk of political instability and stoking fears of an increase in debt, amid calls from the opposition to boost spending and cut taxes. This comes at a time when Japan is struggling to strike a trade deal with the US and might complicate the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy normalization path, which continues to undermine the Japanese Yen amid the upbeat market mood. Meanwhile, the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau this Friday showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% YoY in June and the gauge excluding fresh food prices arrived at 3.3%, down from 3.7% prior.Furthermore, CPI ex Fresh Food and Energy rose 3.4% during the reported month compared to the reading of 3.3% in May. The data offers some relief to the BoJ, which is set to update its inflation projections at the July policy meeting. Meanwhile, traders have been scaling back their expectations for an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve amid the evidence that the Trump administration's increasing import taxes are passing through to consumer prices.Fed governor Adriana Kugler said on Thursday that the still-restrictive policy stance is important to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored, and it will be appropriate to hold the policy rate at the current level for some time.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, noted that rate cuts might be difficult in the short run and that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain as tariff adjustments could take months.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that despite the overall progress on inflation, the central bank still has some work to do on inflation. Whether the rate cut happens in July or September isn't most relevant, Daly added further. Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that rising risks to the economy favour easing the policy rate and the central bank should cut its interest rate target in July amid evidence that the labour market is growing weaker.This, in turn, drags the US Dollar away from a fresh monthly high, touched on Thursday following the release of upbeat US macro data, and keeps the USD/JPY pair below its highest level in more than three months. Traders now look to the release of Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, and the US housing market data – Building Permits and Housing Starts – for some impetus later this Friday. USD/JPY needs to find acceptance above 149.00 for bulls to retain near-term controlFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair showed some resilience below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) earlier this week, and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. However, the overnight failure to build on the momentum beyond the 149.00 mark warrants some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 149.15-149.20 region, or a multi-month peak, before positioning for a move towards reclaiming the 150.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, the 148.20-148.25 region, or the 100-hour SMA, could offer immediate support ahead of the 148.00 mark. Some follow-through selling, leading to a slide below the 147.70 area, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards testing sub-147.00 levels. Acceptance below the latter might shift the bias in favor of bearish trades and drag spot prices to the 146.60 intermediate support en route to the 146.20 area, the 146.00 mark, and the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 145.80 region. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.3% Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 3.7% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances on Friday, recovering its more than 0.5% losses from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

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The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates will eventually settle at 3% or higher, which is higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.However, FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler said that the US central bank should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. Kugler added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology in line.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar edges lower ahead of UoM Consumer SentimentThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is edging lower and trading at around 98.50 at the time of writing. Traders will likely observe the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts later on Friday.US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 3.9%, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May.US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in June, against the market consensus of a 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI rose by 2.6% YoY versus 3.0% prior, softer than the 2.7% expected.The latest Fed Beige Book shows that while overall business activity remains healthy and inflation pressures are relatively subdued, underlying cost pressures are building, and business operators remain cautious.US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he plans to send letters to over 150 countries, notifying them of a 10% tariff rate they will face. He emphasized that these are "not big countries" with limited trade ties to the US, unlike China or Japan. He also hinted the rate could rise to 15–20%, though he did not confirm any specifics.President Trump said in an interview with the Real America's Voice network on Wednesday that he would love for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to resign, but that it would disrupt the markets if the president were to remove him. He also mentioned the possibility of striking a deal with Europe. Regarding tariffs on Canada, he said it’s too soon to comment. A tariff deal with India, however, is very close.China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter, compared to a 5.4% growth in the first quarter and the expected 5.1% growth. Meanwhile, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 1.1% in Q2, against the market consensus of a 0.9% increase. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 4.8% YoY in June, against the 5.6% expected and 6.4% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 6.8%, against the 5.6% expected.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that seasonally adjusted Employment Change was 2K in June, recovering from a previous decline of 2.5K in May, though falling way short of the expected 20K new jobs. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% from 4.1% prior. The figure came in above the market consensus of 4.1%.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, which climbed 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.5% gain in June. This marked a third consecutive monthly increase, signaling a modest yet encouraging improvement in consumer outlook.Australian Dollar trades around 0.6500 after rebounding from 50-day EMAAUD/USD is trading around 0.6510 on Friday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicated a bullish bias is active as the pair is positioned within the ascending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 mark, suggesting that market bias is weakening. The pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is weakening.On the downside, the 50-day EMA at 0.6490 is acting as an immediate support. A successful breach below this level would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6460, aligned with the three-week low at 0.6454, which was recorded on July 17.The AUD/USD pair may target the nine-day EMA at 0.6524. A break above this level could strengthen the short-term price momentum and support the pair to approach the eight-month high of 0.6595, which was reached on July 11.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.26% -0.11% -0.04% -0.09% -0.24% -0.28% -0.26% EUR 0.26% 0.15% 0.21% 0.15% 0.05% -0.15% -0.00% GBP 0.11% -0.15% 0.04% 0.02% -0.13% -0.25% -0.13% JPY 0.04% -0.21% -0.04% -0.03% -0.19% -0.35% -0.11% CAD 0.09% -0.15% -0.02% 0.03% -0.17% -0.27% -0.16% AUD 0.24% -0.05% 0.13% 0.19% 0.17% -0.12% -0.01% NZD 0.28% 0.15% 0.25% 0.35% 0.27% 0.12% 0.11% CHF 0.26% 0.00% 0.13% 0.11% 0.16% 0.00% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5955 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback as China’s second-quarter (Q2) growth beats estimates.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD rises to 0.5955 in Friday’s Asian session, up 0.46% on the day. China posted better-than-expected Q2 growth, supporting the China-proxy Kiwi. US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in June, beating the estimates. The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5955 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback as China’s second-quarter (Q2) growth beats estimates. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be in the spotlight later on Friday, followed by Building Permits and Housing Starts.China posted better-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the face of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. China’s economy expanded by 5.2% YoY in Q2 versus 5.4% prior, the National Bureau of Statistics showed. This reading came in stronger than the estimation of 5.1%. This encouraging Chinese economic report could underpin the China-proxy China, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. Nonetheless, robust US Retail Sales data could lift the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair. The US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in June, compared to -0.9% in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 0.1%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales climbed 3.9% in June versus 3.3% prior. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting due to the tariff uncertainty triggered by Trump. Financial markets are now pricing in a September starting date for rate cuts, and Fed officials penciled in two easings later this year, according to Reuters. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
 

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1498 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1461 and 7.1736 Reuters estimate.

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.15 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI edges higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about tighter global oil supplies. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price rises to $66.15 in Friday’s early Asian session. Simmering tensions in the Middle East and strong summer demand boost the WTI price. Tariff uncertainty might cap the WTI’s upside. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.15 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI edges higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about tighter global oil supplies. Reuters reported late Thursday that a drone attack on Kurdistan targeted a Norwegian-operated oil and gas firm in the Tawke, Zakho administration area of northern Iraq, leading to a suspension of production. At this time, the US has refrained from any major counterattacks. Therefore, the situation remains relatively peaceful. Any signs of escalation in this region could raise fears of tight global supply, which might provide some support to the WTI price.US crude oil inventories fell last week, suggesting robust summer demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 11 fell by 3.859 million barrels, compared to a rise of 7.07 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 1.8 million barrels.  Nonetheless, the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war might cap the upside for the WTI price. Trump said on Wednesday that he intends to send a letter telling more than 150 trade partners what tariff rate they will face. High tariffs could slow down the economy and thereby hurt oil and energy demand, weighing on the oil prices.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 3.5%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 3.5%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.Further details unveil that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 3,3% YoY in June versus 3.7% prior. The figure came in line with the market consensus.

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) increased to 3.4% in June from previous 3.3%

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 3.5% to 3.3% in June

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) meets expectations (3.3%) in June

Silver price advanced on Thursday, 0.55% as the Greenback posted solid gains during the North American session, even though Wall Street finished the session with gains.

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Upbeat economic data in the US suggests the economy is strong, though it was not an excuse for the grey metal to climb back above $38.00, poised to end the week almost flat.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a price action standpoint, XAG/USD remains upwardly biased, but it has consolidated over the last three days, staying glued to the $38.00 figure. A daily close above this level opens the door for an upside recovery.Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicates that buyers are in control; however, the RSI slope remains flat, suggesting a lack of catalysts that could prompt traders to enter long/short positions.For a bullish continuation, Silver must clear the $38.50 level, allowing buyers to test $39.00. Once cleared up, the next lies $39.50 and the $40.00 mark. Conversely, if XAG/USD tumbles below $38.00, the first support would be the June 18 high, now turned support, at $37.31, followed by $37.00 and the 20-day SMA at $36.86.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3740 during the early Asian session on Friday. The dovish remark from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weighs on the US Dollar (USD).

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The dovish remark from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weighs on the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, followed by Building Permits and Housing Starts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later. Dovish comments from Fed policymakers could undermine the Greenback against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Financial markets are now pricing in a September starting date for rate cuts and Fed officials penciled in two reductions at their June meeting, according to Reuters. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales might help limit the USD’s losses. Data released by the US Census Bureau on Thursday showed that the US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in below the market consensus of 0.1%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales climbed 3.9% in June, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May.Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices could drag the commodity-linked Loonie lower in the near term. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.  Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

GBP/USD churned around the 1.3400 region on Thursday, grappling with fresh congestion after a brief reprieve from sustained selling pressure. United Kingdom (UK) labor data broadly missed the mark, and US Retail Sales came in stronger than expected.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he continues to believe that the Fed should cut its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks and the strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a persistent rise in price pressures

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Rising risks to economy favour easing policy rate.
If underlying inflation remains in check and growth tepid, more cuts needed.
The Fed should not wait until labour market hits trouble before cutting rates.
Delaying cuts runs risk of need for more aggressive action later.
Evidence mounting that labour market is growing weaker.
Tariffs likely to have one-time impact the Fed can look through.
July rate cut could give the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings.
Absent tariff impact, inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% target.
Tariffs will boost inflation in the near term.
Risks include an economic slowdown with GDP around 1%.
Economy calls for monetary policy closer to neutral setting.
Expects tariff impact to fade next year.
Data suggests job market ‘on the edge.’
Upside risks to inflation are limited.
Sustained 10% tariff likely to increase inflation 0.75%–1% this year.
Private sector hiring ‘near stall speed.’Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.14% lower on the day to trade at 98.52. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic expressed further caution about the state of the US economy and potential tariff fallout on inflation metrics in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic expressed further caution about the state of the US economy and potential tariff fallout on inflation metrics in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.Key highlightsEconomic outlook remains highly uncertain.
The economy's tariff adjustment could take months.
Rate cuts might be difficult in the short run.

EUR/USD tumbles during the North American session, down 0.38% following the release of economic data from the United States (US), which triggered a reaction by investors, who trimmed their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates.

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At the time of writing, the pair traded at 1.1598, having reached a high of 1.1642.Risk appetite improved after US President Donald Trump denied rumors that he planned to sack Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. News flows had remained light, though economic data from the US continues to justify the Fed’s current stance, which most officials had revealed as appropriate, as the labor market is solid, Retail Sales improved, and Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that inflation is on its way to 3%.Before Wall Street opened, Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week came below estimates. At the same time, Retail Sales for June crushed May’s data and economists' forecasts, although the data suggest that increases in goods and services prices may be responsible for the upbeat report.Fed speeches had been grabbing the headlines, with Governor Adriana Kugler, San Francisco Fed Mary Daly, and recently. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic. He said that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, adding that tariff adjustments are the cause blocking the path to further rate cuts.Across the pond, the Eurozone (EZ) inflation report showed that prices ticked up, but they remain closer to the 2% goal by the European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast to US inflation.Ahead this week, the European economic docket will feature Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) figures as the primary catalyst for the Euro, with estimates suggesting that the disinflation process continued to evolve. In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is awaited, along with speeches from the Fed.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD struggles at 1.1600 on strong US dataUS economic data showed Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 fell from 228K to 221K, below the 235K projected by analysts, with the labor market showing strength amid fears of an ongoing slowdown.Retail Sales in June exceeded forecasts of 0.1% MoM, rose by 0.6% MoM, and crushed May’s 0.9% plunge, as some of the increase reflects higher prices due to tariffs. Inflation on the consumer side was revealed earlier in the week, with prices rising.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler struck a hawkish tone, noting that inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target and that the labor market continues to show resilience. She also warned that CPI inflation is beginning to broaden into core goods, signaling more persistent price pressures.Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly maintained that the US economy is in a solid position. She acknowledged that June’s CPI data reflected some early effects of tariffs but suggested their overall impact on inflation may be limited. Despite elevated inflation and restrictive policy settings, Daly reiterated her support for two rate cuts in 2025.Since last week, several ECB policymakers have voiced their views on the monetary policy outlook. Mario Centeno joined De Guindos, Vujčić, and Villeroy in signaling support for a pause or potential rate cut. Fabio Panetta also backed easing, citing increasing downside risks to growth.In contrast, Isabel Schnabel argued that current rates are appropriately positioned, advocating for a hold—an opinion echoed by Robert Holzmann, who emphasized the need to wait for more data before making any adjustments.EUR/USD technical outlook: Consolidates within the 20 and 50-day SMA, below 1.1600EUR/USD is neutral-biased, with traders unable to decisively break above 1.1600 on the upside or below 1.1550 on the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are gathering momentum.That said, if EUR/USD drops below 1.1550, the next support would be 1.1500, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1490, and the 100-day SMA at 1.1266. Conversely, a rise above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1681 would clear the path to challenge 1.1700, followed by the July 20 daily high at 1.1749, ahead of 1.1800 and the record high of 1.1829. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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