외환거래 뉴스 타임라인

21:00 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We aren't focused on whether the Fed will cut
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hit newswires on Thursday, touching on a variety of topics that suggest the President Donald Trump's administration will achieve both US Dollar (USD) strength and a general decline in Treasury yields at the same time.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hit newswires on Thursday, touching on a variety of topics that suggest the President Donald Trump's administration will achieve both US Dollar (USD) strength and a general decline in Treasury yields at the same time. Treasury Secretary Bessent also noted that hew had met with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, but also stated that the US administration was not particularly concerned about the Fed's trajectory on interest rates. Key highlights There's a lot of misinformation about DOGE and the Treasury. There are 2 Treasury officials, no tinkering. DOGE has absolutely not had the power to change the system. I won't allow DOGE to change the Treasury system. No engagement at the IRS as yet on the part of DOGE. Strong dollar policy completely intact under Trump. China most unbalanced economy in the history of the world. I am happy to see the trajectory of borrowing is dropping. I don't see changes in issuance in the foreseeable future. We aren't focused on whether fed going to cut or not. With Trump's policies, 10-year yields are to naturally come down. Tariffs could have a small one-time price adjustment. I see China eating some tariffs no matter the level. The best for predictability is to make tax cuts permanent. I have met with Powell and had a very constructive discussion.

21:00 Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate in line with expectations (9.5%)
Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate in line with expectations (9.5%)

20:35 US Dollar with some gains after mixed economic data ahead of key employment report
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, struggles to hold its recent gains, trading below 108.00 on Thursday.

20:00 Mexican Peso climbs ahead of Banxico’s decision
The Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciated during the North American session as traders braced for Banco de Mexico's (Banxico) first monetary policy decision of 2025.

19:25 Dow Jones Industrial Average splits from the pack and sheds 150 points
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slid on Thursday, falling around 150 points to retest the 44,750 level.

18:45 Canadian Dollar flattens ahead of key labor prints
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) spun in a tight circle on Thursday, churning chart paper near 1.4300 against the US Dollar (USD) as markets gear up for another Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Friday.

18:32 United States 4-Week Bill Auction unchanged at 4.25%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction unchanged at 4.25%

18:08 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls pause as pair retreats toward 20-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair pulled back on Thursday, declining by 0.45% to 1.0370 as bullish momentum faded.

EUR/USD drops on Thursday, slipping to 1.0355 after recent gains.After rising above the 20-day SMA earlier in the week, the pair faces renewed selling pressure and sellers might test its strength.A loss would push the pair towards 1.0300.The EUR/USD pair pulled back on Thursday, declining by 0.45% to 1.0370 as bullish momentum faded. After climbing above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the start of the week, the pair now faces renewed bearish pressure, with sellers attempting to push it back toward this key support level. However, the overall outlook remains bearish with the pair well below the 100 and 200-day SMA which stand around 1.0600 and 1.0700. Technical indicators suggest a weakening in bullish traction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply declined to 49, moving into negative territory, signaling that upside momentum is losing steam. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, indicating indecisiveness in market sentiment. If selling pressure persists, EUR/USD could test the 20-day SMA, currently near 1.0360. A break below this level would open the door for further declines toward 1.0300. On the other hand, if buyers regain control, resistance lies at 1.0400, followed by the key 1.0450 zone. For now, the short-term outlook hinges on whether the pair can hold above its 20-day SMA. EUR/USD daily chart

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (-167B) in January 31: Actual (-174B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (-167B) in January 31: Actual (-174B)

17:07 GBP/USD plummets as BoE cut rates unanimously
The Pound Sterling fell during Thursday’s North American session, down 0.79% after the Bank of England (BoE) reduced the Bank Rate by 25 basis points.

17:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a below expectations (53) in January: Actual (47.1)
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a below expectations (53) in January: Actual (47.1)

16:06 EUR/GBP rallies to near 0.8380 after BoE’s dovish interest rate decision
The EUR/GBP pair surges and posts a fresh weekly high to near 0.8380 in Thursday’s North American session.

15:54 US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 219K for the week ending February 1, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.

Initial Jobless Claims rose above consensus to 219K.Continuing Jobless Claims climbed to 1.886M in the week ending January 25.US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 219K for the week ending February 1, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday. This print missed initial estimates and was higher than the previous week's revised tally of 208K (from 207K). The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average rose to 216.75K, marking an increase of 4K from the prior week’s revised average. Moreover, Continuing Jobless Claims went up by 36K to reach 1.886M for the week ending January 25. Market reaction The Greenback maintains its bullish bias above 108.00 when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), reversing a three-day negative streak.

15:45 GBP/USD slides further after expected BoE rate cut – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) slid in the wake of the BoE rate decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) slid in the wake of the BoE rate decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP/USD underperforms on the day "The policy rate was cut 25bps to 4.50% as expected but two MPC members voted for a 50bps cut—one being Mann, who is typically more hawkish. UK yields have slipped and swaps are pricing in a little more easing risk. BoE Governor Bailey said the Bank would follow a 'gradual and careful approach to reducing rates, however." "The GBP was trading defensively ahead of the BoE policy decision after the January Construction PMI showed a sharp and unexpected drop back to 48.1. A small improvement on December’s 53.3 reading was forecast." "GBP has traded softly on the session, easing back under the 40-day MA support (1.2441) to near the 1.24 level. Short-term price action suggests a minor peak at least formed yesterday at 1.2550. Corrective losses are testing support in the mid-1.23s at writing."

15:41 EUR/USD: Ignores stronger German Factory Orders data – Scotiabank
German Factory Orders data for December rose a solid 6.9% in the month, versus expectations for a 2.0% gain, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

German Factory Orders data for December rose a solid 6.9% in the month, versus expectations for a 2.0% gain, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR slips lower on the day "This data series has been choppy in the past few months and orders for Q4 overall were flat. Still, the late year jump, along with survey data, suggest that the industrial sector may be stabilizing, albeit at a relatively soft level. Tariff risks, energy costs and uncertainties around next month’s election may keep activity trends relatively subdued in the early part of this year." "Spot peaked just under 1.0450 yesterday. Losses in the EUR since then appear corrective and may extend a little more after the squeeze higher seen earlier this week. Support is 1.0290/00."

15:38 CAD: Spreads remain a big impediment to a stronger rebound – Scotiabank
The softer CAD reflects the general trend in the majors against the broadly higher USD on the session.

The softer CAD reflects the general trend in the majors against the broadly higher USD on the session. More range trading is likely in the short run; a lot of uncertainty remains and it is hard seeing the CAD improve materially at the moment, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD edges lower on the day "Over the past 15 years, the rare occasions that USDCAD has pushed above the 1.45 area have been great levels to sell USDs. The previous two occasions that the USD reached the 1.47 area after a short, sharp sell-off in the CAD, the USD was significantly lower just three months later (USD down 7.5% in 2020 and more than 10% in 2016)." "In both cases US/ Canada spreads were meaningfully narrower than they are now (heading towards, or already at, par). The CAD might still pick up if tariff risks are priced fully out of the outlook in the next few weeks. Positioning remains heavily short CAD, suggesting scope for a decent squeeze if the trade news does turn suddenly better. But the CAD’s yield deficit remains a big impediment to a major rebound at the moment." "The USD’s sharp drop back from Monday’s peak may be stabilizing. Short-term price signals suggest a minor low/reversal was struck as USDCAD losses steadied in the upper 1.42 zone yesterday. Intraday resistance should develop around 1.4375/80 (40-day MA) but spot may do a little more corrective back and filling of the sharp fall seen earlier this week. If the USD regains a 1.44 handle, that correction would risk extending to 1.4450/75. Support is 1.4260/70."

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims above expectations (1.87M) in January 24: Actual (1.886M)
United States Continuing Jobless Claims above expectations (1.87M) in January 24: Actual (1.886M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K, above forecasts (213K) in January 31
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K, above forecasts (213K) in January 31

15:30 United States Unit Labor Costs came in at 3%, below expectations (3.8%) in 4Q
United States Unit Labor Costs came in at 3%, below expectations (3.8%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 216.75K (January 31) vs 212.5K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 216.75K (January 31) vs 212.5K

15:26 USD strengthens modestly – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall this morning, partially reversing three days of losses following the tariff turmoil at the start of the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall this morning, partially reversing three days of losses following the tariff turmoil at the start of the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD trades mostly firmer in quiet trade "Markets appear in constructive mood generally, with global stocks are trading in the green for the most part. The FTSE outperformed in anticipation of lower rates at today’s BoE policy decision—which also helps explain the GBP’s overall underperformance on the session. The JPY is resisting the USD’s advance to trade more or less flat on the day." "BoJ Governor Tamura suggested that the policy rate would need to rise to at least 1% by early 2026— which largely reflects market pricing. USD gains reflect moderately higher yields relative it its major peers on the session so far. Treasury Sec. Bessent said the Trump administration was focused on taming long-term rates, however, suggesting that the president will not be trying to jawbone the Fed into cutting the policy rate." "There is a little more data to work through this morning and markets may be slowly re-acquainting themselves with macro developments ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data as headline risks subside. The Banxico policy decision at 14ET is expected to result in a 50bps cut, taking the policy rate to 9.50% and the premium over the Fed funds target rate down to 500bps. Markets may be sensitive to guidance as the rate cushion for the MXN is thinning."

15:08 GBP/JPY dives to near 188.40 as all BoE members support 25-bps interest rate reduction
The GBP/JPY pair faces an intense sell-off and dives vertically to near 188.40 in Thursday’s North American session, the lowest level seen in two months.

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $620.8B from previous $619.7B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $620.8B from previous $619.7B

14:52 Bailey speech: Government commitment to long-term structural reforms will help confidence
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the policy outlook and responds to questions from the press following the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the February meeting.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the policy outlook and responds to questions from the press following the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the February meeting. Key quotes "There was quite a debate about the word "careful"." "We continue to use "gradual" because we still need to see disinflation take place." "You can conclude productivity has got much worse." "It would be unusual for poor productivity situation to remain." "Government growth agenda will not come through quickly but we are supportive." "Government being committed to long-term structural reforms will help confidence."

14:43 Bailey speech: Consumers are more price conscious and holding back on spending
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the policy outlook and responds to questions from the press following the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the February meeting.

14:36 Bailey speech: We expect to be able to cut bank rate further
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the policy outlook and responds to questions from the press following the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the February meeting.

14:30 United States Challenger Job Cuts: 49.795K (January) vs 38.792K
United States Challenger Job Cuts: 49.795K (January) vs 38.792K

14:06 US Dollar bounces off support after softening stance from President Trump
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, ticks up in the European trading session on Thursday, trading slightly below 108.00 at the time of writing.

14:03 Mexico Consumer Confidence: 47.1 (January) vs previous 47.3
Mexico Consumer Confidence: 47.1 (January) vs previous 47.3

14:02 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a dipped from previous 47.1 to 46.7 in January
Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a dipped from previous 47.1 to 46.7 in January

14:01 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike in line with forecasts (0)
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike in line with forecasts (0)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (4.5%)
United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (4.5%)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 0, below expectations (1)
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 0, below expectations (1)

13:41 USD/MXN: Short-term price action to remain between 20.12/20.00 and 21.00 – Societe Generale
USD/MXN carved out an interim high near 21.28 earlier this week and re-integrated within its multi-month range; this denotes lack of steady upward momentum, Societe Generale’s FX analysts note.

USD/MXN carved out an interim high near 21.28 earlier this week and re-integrated within its multi-month range; this denotes lack of steady upward momentum, Societe Generale’s FX analysts note.MACD experiences crisscross moves around its trigger line“This is also highlighted by the daily MACD, which has turned flattish and has experienced crisscross moves around its trigger line. Short-term price action could remain within a range defined by limits at 20.12/20.00 and 21.00; a break beyond one of these bands is essential to confirm a directional move.”

13:36 CHF: SNB interest rates can turn negative again later this year – Rabobank
The next SNB policy meeting is not scheduled until March 20, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

The next SNB policy meeting is not scheduled until March 20, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes.EUR/USD to trade at 0.92 around the middle of the year“A lot can happen in six weeks, but at this point it seems fairly likely that the central bank will announce another cut in rates. This would follow the jumbo 50 bps move at the last meeting in December. The SNB only meets once a quarter. This alone increases the chances of a move next month.”“Arguably, it also raises the chances that policymakers could decide on another jumbo move since the next policy meeting will not be until June. That said, the SNB’s policy rate is already at 0.50%. Given the benign inflation backdrop in Switzerland and the lacklustre pace of growth there is the possibility that SNB interest rates turn negative again later this year.”“Despite the risk of more SNB rate cuts this year, we expect safe-haven demand to continue to function as a prop for the CHF and see scope for further flurries down to the EUR/USD 0.92 level around the middle of the year.”

13:32 Markets price-in a BOJ policy rate of 0.75% by year-end – BBH
JPY is outperforming. Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member Naoki Tamura argued for a faster normalization cycle, BBH FX analysts note.

JPY is outperforming. Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member Naoki Tamura argued for a faster normalization cycle, BBH FX analysts note.BOJ expects inflation to stabilize around its 2% target in 2026“Tamura said ‘raising short-term interest rates to at least around 1% in the latter half of fiscal 2025 is necessary to reduce upside risk to prices and achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner.’”“Tamura is the most hawkish board member as he was the only one to vote in favor of a rate hike in December 2024. Markets continue to price-in a BOJ policy rate of 0.75% by year-end and a terminal rate of 1.00% over the next two years.”“This seems about right as the BOJ expects inflation to stabilize around its 2% target in 2026. The limited room for a further upward adjustment to BOJ rate expectations curtails JPY upside.”

13:29 USD/CNH: To trade in a range between 7.2650 and 7.3050 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.2650 and 7.3050. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; USD could trade in a 7.2430/7.3580 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.2650 and 7.3050. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; USD could trade in a 7.2430/7.3580 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Outlook for USD/CNH is mixed24-HOUR VIEW: “After USD fell to a low of 7.2755 two days ago and then rebounded, we indicated yesterday that ‘despite the decline, there is no clear increase in momentum. We added, ‘instead of continuing to weaken, USD is more likely to trade in a lower range of 7.2680/7.3200.’ Our view of range trading was not wrong, even though USD traded in a narrower range than expected between 7.2669/7.2939 before closing largely unchanged at 7.2829 (-0.06%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range between 7.2650 and 7.3050.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (05 Feb, spot at 7.2915). As indicated, ‘the outlook for USD is mixed after the volatile price movements over the past couple of days.’ For now, it could trade in a broad range of 7.2430/7.3580.”

13:15 Gold hits another fresh record – ING
Gold rallied to a new all-time high amid trade war concerns that risk higher inflation and slower economic growth, spurring demand for safe-haven assets, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

Gold rallied to a new all-time high amid trade war concerns that risk higher inflation and slower economic growth, spurring demand for safe-haven assets, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.Cntral banks’ buying last year exceeds 1,000 tonnes“Gold is already up by more than 9% so far this year and has hit a series of consecutive record highs along the way. While the uncertainty over trade and tariffs continues to boost Gold prices, Trump’s latest comments that the US take over the Gaza Strip and assume responsibility for reconstructing the territory have added to Gold’s bullish momentum.”“Meanwhile, central banks’ buying last year exceeded 1,000 tonnes for the third year in a row, accelerating sharply in the fourth quarter to 333 tonnes and bringing the net annual total to 1,045 tonnes, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council.”“The National Bank of Poland led the charge, adding 90 tonnes to its Gold reserves last year, but demand was seen from a broad range of emerging market banks.”

12:45 GBP: Sterling could hand back recent gains – ING
The Bank Of England's (BoE) trade-weighted sterling index has rallied 1.7% since the middle of January. The recovery from the gilt-triggered January sell-off has undoubtedly been helped by the rally in US Treasuries.

The Bank Of England's (BoE) trade-weighted sterling index has rallied 1.7% since the middle of January. The recovery from the gilt-triggered January sell-off has undoubtedly been helped by the rally in US Treasuries. Additionally, the recent focus on tariffs has been a EUR/GBP negative, with the UK less exposed and the UK perhaps even being granted a tariff exemption from the Trump administration – if this week's comments are to be believed, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.GBP/USD to top out this quarter in the 1.25/26 area“However, the external environment may sour if US Treasury yields rise again, which is the house view. And the brief reprieve in the tariff noise should allow investors to refocus on the UK's fiscal and monetary mix. Fiscal will be a story for March, but today the monetary angle reappears with the Bank of England meeting.”“We expect an 8-1 vote to cut rates and a downward revision to growth forecasts to be a mild sterling negative. Much more negative would be a 9-0 vote, should arch-hawk Catherine Mann vote for a rate cut. We continue to favour GBP/USD topping out this quarter in the 1.25/26 area and see a strong case for it to be trading close to 1.19/20 later this year.”

12:43 NZD/USD: Has a chance to edge above 0.5705 before levelling off – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could edge above 0.5705 before levelling off; the next resistance at 0.5725 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum; NZD could rise gradually to 0.5725, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could edge above 0.5705 before levelling off; the next resistance at 0.5725 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum; NZD could rise gradually to 0.5725, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Next resistance at 0.5725 is unlikely to come under threat24-HOUR VIEW“Although we noted ‘a slight increase in upward momentum’ yesterday, we were of the view that NZD ‘is likely to trade in a higher range of 0.5605/0.5680.’ Instead of trading in a range, NZD rose, reaching a high of 0.5703. Upward momentum has increased further, albeit not much. Today, NZD could edge above 0.5705 before levelling off. The next resistance at 0.5725 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 0.5665; a breach of 0.5645 would mean that the current mild upward momentum has eased.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted two days ago (04 Feb, spot at 0.5625) that ‘the current price movements appear to be part of a range trading phase, likely between 0.5510 and 0.5705.’ Yesterday, NZD rose to within a couple of pips of 0.5705 (high of 0.5703). There has been a tentative buildup in momentum. From here, NZD could rise gradually to 0.5725. Currently, it is too soon to determine if NZD can break clearly above this resistance level. The upward pressure will remain intact as long as NZD remains above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.5615.”

12:42 AUD/USD: Can edge higher and test 0.6310 – UOB Group
While conditions remain overbought, AUD could edge higher and test 0.6310. A sustained rise above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, If AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

While conditions remain overbought, AUD could edge higher and test 0.6310. A sustained rise above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, If AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Above 0.6310, AUD can trigger an advance to 0.635524-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that ‘there has been an increase in momentum, and today, a break above 0.6265 will not be surprising.’ However, we indicated that ‘overbought conditions suggest any further advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 0.6310.’ Our view was not wrong, as AUD rose to 0.6296, closing at 0.6285 (+0.45%). While conditions remain overbought, AUD could edge higher and test 0.6310 today. A sustained rise above this level seems unlikely. On the downside, support levels are at 0.6265 and 0.6245.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our update from Tuesday (04 Feb, spot at 0.6215), we highlighted that the recent ‘buildup in downward momentum has largely faded.’ We expected AUD to ‘trade in a range, probably between 0.6080 and 0.6310.’ AUD edged higher to a high of 0.6296 yesterday (Wednesday). Upward momentum is beginning to build, and if AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355. The chance of AUD closing above 0.6310 will increase in the coming days as long as 0.6200 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached.”

12:41 EUR/USD declines as US Dollar gains ground ahead of US NFP
EUR/USD corrects to near 1.0360 in Thursday’s European session.

12:40 USD: Dollar bull trend situation report – ING
The DXY dollar index is roughly 2% off its recent highs and the question for investors is whether a further 1-2% is required.

The DXY dollar index is roughly 2% off its recent highs and the question for investors is whether a further 1-2% is required. Driving this correction have been several factors, the largest of which has probably been this week's tariff news, where it looks like the Trump administration has been using tariffs for transactional not ideological purposes (this may change in the second quarter), ING’s FX analyst, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.DXY probably trades in a tightish 107.50-108.00 range“Important as well has been the drop in 10-year US Treasury yields below 4.50%. A well-received Quarterly Refunding announcement yesterday certainly helped. Our rate strategy colleagues discuss that move here. The move lower in USD/JPY has caught the attention as data and Bank of Japan commentary have built up confidence in this year's BoJ tightening cycle.”“Determining whether DXY corrects another 1-2% will probably be tomorrow's jobs data. We saw earlier this week from the US JOLTS job opening data that soft figures can hit the dollar. Yet we doubt the dollar correction will last too long. We look for more structural and broader tariffs to come back into play in the second quarter. Our rates team also doubts US Treasury yields will drop much further from here.”“So while a soft NFP number tomorrow could drag DXY back towards the 106.35/50 area – we would see that area as the bottom of the trading range this first quarter. Today the US calendar is pretty light. Unless jobless claims rise dramatically, DXY probably trades in a tightish 107.50-108.00 range.”

12:36 USD/JPY: Might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could drop further; given the oversold conditions, it might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80. In the longer run, outlook for USD is negative but note the significant support level at 151.80, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) could drop further; given the oversold conditions, it might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80. In the longer run, outlook for USD is negative but note the significant support level at 151.80, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD is negative but might not reach 151.8024-HOUR VIEW: “We noted in early Asian trade yesterday that USD ‘is under mild downward pressure and could edge lower.’ However, we were of the view that ‘any decline is unlikely to break below 153.70.’ We did not expect the steep selloff that sent USD plunging by 1.12% (152.60). Despite the deeply oversold conditions, the weakness has not stabilised. Today, USD could drop further, but given the oversold conditions, it might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80. Note that yesterday’s low of 152.10 is expected to provide support as well. On the upside, any recovery is likely to remain below 153.50 (minor resistance is at 153.00).”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (04 Feb, spot at 155.20), we indicated, USD ‘is likely to trade in a 153.70/156.70 range for the time being.’ Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘looking ahead, if USD were to break and remain below 153.70, it could trigger a sustained drop.’ However, we did not expect the sudden sharp plunge that reached a low of 152.10. While we are revising our outlook for USD to negative, note that there is a significant support level at 151.80. We will maintain our view provided that USD remains below 154.30.”

12:29 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Gains ahead of BoE’s policy decision
The EUR/GBP pair rises to near 0.8333 in Thursday’s European session.

12:24 Saudis boost official selling prices – ING
The oil market sold off yesterday despite US President Trump’s directive to increase economic pressure on Iran, which would include targeting oil exports from the country. Instead, the market focused on the tariff story, a theme likely to dictate sentiment for much of this year.

The oil market sold off yesterday despite US President Trump’s directive to increase economic pressure on Iran, which would include targeting oil exports from the country. Instead, the market focused on the tariff story, a theme likely to dictate sentiment for much of this year. In addition, the EIA’s weekly inventory report was fairly bearish with a large increase in crude oil stocks over the last week, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.Cold weather boosts distillate demand“EIA data showed that commercial US crude oil inventories increased by 8.66m barrels over the last week, the largest build since February 2024. The increase was driven by strong imports, which grew by 467k b/d WoW with stronger flows from Canada, which increased 347k b/d. In addition, oil output recovered last week, following the impact of winter storms.”“Crude oil output in the Lower 48 is estimated to have grown by 232k b/d. Refiners also increased their utilisation rates by 2.4pp over the week, which saw gasoline inventories rising by 2.23m barrels. However, distillate stocks fell by 5.47m barrels over the week. Cold weather boosted distillate demand, with implied demand hitting its highest level since early 2022.”“So far today, oil prices are holding up better as Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling prices for all grades and to all regions for March loadings. This ties in with the strength that we have seen in the Middle East physical market since the start of the year. Aramco’s flagship Arab Light into Asia was increased by US$2.40/bbl to US$3.90/bbl over the benchmark – the highest level since December 2023. It is also the largest monthly increase since August 2022.”

12:05 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 2.743% to 2.23%
Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 2.743% to 2.23%

12:05 Spain 3-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.586% to 2.388%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.586% to 2.388%

12:05 Eurozone Retail Sales rise 1.9% YoY in December, as expected
Eurozone’s Retail Sales rose 1.9% in the year through December after increasing by a revised 1.6% in November, the official data released by Eurostat showed on Thursday.

Eurozone annual Retail Sales rose 1.9% in December.Retail Sales in the old continent arrived at -0.2% MoM in December.Eurozone’s Retail Sales rose 1.9% in the year through December after increasing by a revised 1.6% in November, the official data released by Eurostat showed on Thursday. The data aligned with the market expectations. On a monthly basis, Retail Sales in the old continent declined by 0.2% in the same period versus November’s 0% revision while coming in below the estimated -0.1% drop. FX implications The Eurozone data fails to lift the Euro. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading 0.40% lower on the day at 1.0361.

12:03 France 10-y Bond Auction: 3.15% vs previous 3.4%
France 10-y Bond Auction: 3.15% vs previous 3.4%

12:00 Gold rally stalls as US Treasury Secretary Bessent says Trump’s focus is on lowering 10-year yields, not Fed
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) sees its rally stall this Thursday and trades around $2,857 at the time of writing. The slide is mainly triggered by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the Trump administration's focus is on bringing

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in December
Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in December

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in December
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in December

11:45 Spain 30-y Bond Auction: 3.691% vs previous 3.877%
Spain 30-y Bond Auction: 3.691% vs previous 3.877%

11:33 GBP/USD: Above 1.2550 a sustained can be expected – UOB Group
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to consolidate in a 1.2460/1.2540 range. In the longer run, GBP has to break and remain above 1.2550 before a sustained advance can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to consolidate in a 1.2460/1.2540 range. In the longer run, GBP has to break and remain above 1.2550 before a sustained advance can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.While above 1.2370, GBP can still test 1.255024-HOUR VIEW: “When GBP was at 1.2480 yesterday, we indicated that it ‘could rise further, but given the overbought conditions, a sustained break above 1.2530 appears unlikely.’ We also pointed out that ‘support levels are at 1.2450 and 1.2420.” GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2465, rose to 1.2550, closing at 1.2506 (+0.20%). The price action did not result in any further increase in momentum. This, combined with overbought conditions, is likely to lead to consolidation. Expected range for today: 1.2460/1.2540.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our latest narrative was from two days ago (04 Feb, spot at 1.2430), wherein ‘for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range of 1.2245/1.2530.’ Yesterday, GBP rose above 1.2530, reaching a high of 1.2550. Upward momentum is increasing, but not enough to suggest a sustained advance. For a sustained advance, GBP has to break and remain above 1.2550. The probability of GBP breaking clearly above 1.2550 will remain intact as long as 1.2370 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached.”

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below expectations (53.4) in January: Actual (48.1)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below expectations (53.4) in January: Actual (48.1)

11:16 WTI price remains above $71.00 as Saudi Aramco raises march oil prices for Asia
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds modest gains after three consecutive days of losses, trading around $71.10 per barrel during European trading hours on Thursday.

11:04 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains depressed near $32.00; bullish bias remains
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick on Thursday and snaps a three-day winning streak to a three-month top, around the $32.55 region touched the previous day.

10:55 EU gas prices strengthen – ING
European natural gas prices saw renewed strength yesterday with TTF settling almost 2.7% higher on the day. Forecasts for colder weather have raised concerns that we will see steeper draws in gas storage in the coming days, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

European natural gas prices saw renewed strength yesterday with TTF settling almost 2.7% higher on the day. Forecasts for colder weather have raised concerns that we will see steeper draws in gas storage in the coming days, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.A pullback in gas prices is due“Speculators also appear to remain supportive towards the market current gas prices leave us deep in with the latest positioning data showing that investment funds increased their net long by 5TWh over the last reporting week to 283TWh. However, with the investment fund long making up more than 31% of total open interest, the position is starting to look a bit stretched.”“In addition, current gas prices leave us deep in the gas-to-coal switching range for the power generation sector, while LNG cargoes should continue to be diverted towards Europe, with European prices trading at a premium to Asia through until the end of the summer. This all suggests we could be due a pullback in the absence of any surprises.”“The latest positioning data also shows that speculators increased their net long yet again in EU allowances (EUAs). Investment funds increased their net long by 2.5k contracts over the week to 55.57k contracts – the largest net long held since September 2021. EUA prices have moved significantly higher this year, breaking above EUR80/t, supported by the strength seen in European gas prices. However, demand may provide resistance further ahead, particularly if we see an escalation in trade tensions.”

10:54 EUR: Some renewed attention on Ukraine – ING
One wild card for EUR/USD this year is what happens in Ukraine. Yesterday the FX market took note of the further rise in Ukraine's hard currency bonds.

One wild card for EUR/USD this year is what happens in Ukraine. Yesterday the FX market took note of the further rise in Ukraine's hard currency bonds. Ukraine’s international bonds rallied some two points in price terms (3-4% price returns on the day) amid optimism that negotiations could bring a potential peace deal closer, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.EUR/USD to trade in the 1.0370-10450 range today“Reports that the US will unveil a peace plan at next week's Munich security conference, in addition to signs that both countries’ leaders are softening their stance towards potential talks, are positive triggers. Last year’s restructured bonds reached their highest price since issue, while the nation’s GDP warrants reached their highest price since January 2022, after steady gains since mid-2024. Developments here will be watched next week and could offer a little support to EUR/USD.”“The question is whether tomorrow's US jobs numbers need to drive the EUR/USD correction briefly back up to the 1.0530/70 area. We cannot rule that out, but doubt that any gains above 1.05 hold for long. We're still happy to look for a move back to 1.02 later this quarter, with 1.00 the likely trajectory in the second quarter when broader US tariffs are brought in. 1.0370-10450 should be the extent of the EUR/USD range today.”

10:46 AUD/USD remains weak as US-China trade tensions escalate with new tariffs
The AUD/USD pair weakens to near 0.6260 on Thursday during the European trading hours, pressured by rising fears over US-China trade war tensions and lower-than-expected Australian Trade Balance data.

10:32 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430 – UOB Group
Instead of continuing to rise, Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430. In the longer run, outlook is unclear; EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Instead of continuing to rise, Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430. In the longer run, outlook is unclear; EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Outlook for Euro is unclear for now24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that EUR ‘could continue to rise, but any advance is unlikely to break clearly above 1.0425.’ We added, ‘the major resistance at 1.0490 is unlikely to come into view.’ The anticipated advance exceeded our expectations as EUR rose briefly to 1.0442 before pulling back to close at 1.0402 (+0.24%). The pullback in overbought conditions and slowing momentum suggest that instead of continuing to rise, EUR is likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430 today.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (05 Feb, spot at 1.0375). As pointed out, “the outlook is unclear for now, and EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being.”

10:20 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA near 0.5650; moves within a rectangular pattern
The NZD/USD pair breaks its four-day winning streak, trading around 0.5660 during the European hours on Thursday.

09:51 Forex Today: BoE policy announcements, US data to drive markets
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 6: Major currency pairs stay relatively quiet early Thursday as investors gear up for the upcoming key events.

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The Bank of England (BoE) will announce monetary policy decisions. Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on the policy outlook and respond to questions in a press conference afterward. Later in the day, the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs data for the fourth quarter. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.19% -0.64% -1.59% -2.31% -0.82% -1.16% -1.37% EUR 0.19% -0.06% -0.11% -0.86% -0.18% 0.32% 0.10% GBP 0.64% 0.06% -1.14% -0.80% -0.11% 0.38% 0.16% JPY 1.59% 0.11% 1.14% -0.75% 0.92% 1.34% 0.85% CAD 2.31% 0.86% 0.80% 0.75% 0.43% 1.18% 0.97% AUD 0.82% 0.18% 0.11% -0.92% -0.43% 0.50% 0.28% NZD 1.16% -0.32% -0.38% -1.34% -1.18% -0.50% -0.22% CHF 1.37% -0.10% -0.16% -0.85% -0.97% -0.28% 0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand on Wednesday following the disappointing ISM Services PMI data. Additionally, improving risk mood put additional weight on the currency's shoulders, as Wall Street's main indexes registered gains for the second consecutive day. After falling 0.4% on Tuesday, the USD Index lost more than 0.3% on Wednesday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Wednesday that US President Donald Trump is not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates. "Interest rates will take care of themselves if we get energy costs down and deregulate the economy," he added and said that their focus is on bringing down the 10-year US Treasury yields. After falling nearly 2% on Wednesday, the 10-year yield fluctuates in a tight range above 4.4%. The BoE is forecast to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% after the February policy meeting. GBP/USD touched its highest level in nearly a month at 1.2550 on Wednesday but erased a portion of its daily gains in the late American session. The pair corrects lower early Thursday and trades below 1.2500.EUR/USD closed marginally higher on Wednesday but failed to stabilize above 1.0400. The pair was last seen losing 0.2% on the day near 1.0380.USD/JPY declined sharply and lost more than 1% on Wednesday. After extending its slide to its weakest level since early December below 152.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, the pair regained its traction and turned flat on the day, above 152.50.Gold preserved its bullish momentum on Wednesday and set a new record-high of $2,882 during the American trading hours. XAU/USD stays on the back foot early Thursday and declines toward $2,850. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:51 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Path of least resistance level is to the downside below 158.50
The EUR/JPY cross extends its decline to around 158.45 during the early European session on Thursday.

09:46 Pound Sterling stabilizes ahead of BoE’s policy decision
The Pound Sterling (GBP) stabilizes against its major peers, except safe-haven currencies, on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 12:00 GMT.

09:32 GBP/JPY falls below 190.50 as traders expect BoE to deliver an interest rate cut
GBP/JPY continues to lose ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 190.40 during the early European hours on Thursday.

09:30 China’s Commerce Ministry: Won't proactively provoke trade disputes, willing to resolve issues
Speaking on US tariffs, Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Thursday, “China won't proactively provoke trade disputes, willing to resolve issues through dialogue and consultation.” Additional comments China willing to work with relevant countries to jointly respond to challenges of unilateralism and trade protectionism.

09:05 German Factory Orders jump 6.9% MoM in December vs. 2% expected
The official data published by the Federal Statistics Office showed Thursday that Germany's Factory Orders rebounded firmly in December, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector is seeing a sharp turnaround.

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) fell from previous -1.7% to -6.3% in December
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) fell from previous -1.7% to -6.3% in December

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 6.9%, above expectations (2%) in December
Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 6.9%, above expectations (2%) in December

09:00 BoE expected to trim interest rate amid steady inflation and weak economic growth
The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its decision on monetary policy on Thursday after completing the first meeting of 2025.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of England is expected to trim the benchmark rate by 25 basis points.Softer UK inflation figures are overshadowed by concerns about slowing growth.GBP/USD could resume its bearish trend if policymakers deliver dovish clues.The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its decision on monetary policy on Thursday after completing the first meeting of 2025. Market participants anticipate policymakers will trim the benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% after cutting it by 50 bps throughout 2024. But it is not just about interest rates. It’s a BoE Super Thursday, so the central bank will also release the meeting Minutes alongside the Quarterly Inflation Report. Finally, Governor Andrew Bailey will hold a press conference in which he will explain the reasoning behind the policymakers’ decision. With a 25 bps interest rate priced in, the focus will then be on the BoE's guidance and economic projections. UK: Softer inflation and weaker growth The BoE surprised market players in December with a hawkish hold, as six out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep rates on hold, while the other three opted for a rate cut. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the United Kingdom (UK) annual headline inflation edged lower to 2.5% in December from 2.6% in November. Additionally, the annual core inflation rate decreased to 3.2% in December from 3.5% prior, marking the lowest reading since September. More importantly, services inflation hit 4.4% year-on-year (YoY), below the BoE’s projection. Growth, on the other hand, has been tepid, to say the least. The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered no growth in the third quarter of 2024, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.1%, according to the latest ONS report. Q2 was downwardly revised to 0.5% following an initial estimate of 0.6%. The BoE expects zero GDP growth in the last quarter of 2024, downgrading the 0.3% estimate predicted in November. With the 25 bps interest rate cut fully priced in, the focus will be on the MPC report and Governor Bailey’s speech. UK policymakers will offer an updated assessment of the economy’s potential growth rate, with the latest estimate standing at 1.3%. A downward revision seems likely, which should boost the odds for additional rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, albeit a faster pace of trims seems out of the picture at the moment. Additionally, it is worth remembering the recent surge in UK government bonds, so-called Gilts, yields. UK Gilts yields have risen to multi-year highs at the beginning of the year, spurring concerns about government spending and tax decisions. Many analysts link the advance to that of United States (US) Treasury yields following President Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House. Nevertheless, yields retreated in the last couple of weeks amid mounting concerns that the economic slowdown would deepen under Trump’s tariff plans. These concerns also fueled speculation the BoE will have no choice but to trim interest rates. How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD? As previously mentioned, a BoE 25 bps interest rate cut is fully priced in. With that in mind, the British Pound (GBP) will likely show no reaction to the headline but react to policymakers’ fresh economic projections and how MPC votes. Ahead of the announcement, financial markets anticipate eight of the nine members will opt for a rate trim. Investors will also pay close attention to Governor Andrew Bailey’s words. Generally speaking, the more dovish the outcome, the more the GBP could fall. The opposite scenario is also valid, with hawkish surprises from UK policymakers boosting demand for the British Pound. Ahead of the announcement, the GBP/USD pair trades above the 1.2500 mark, recovering from a weekly low of 1.2248. The US Dollar (USD) soared at the beginning of the week as US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China over the weekend. The subsequent USD decline came after Trump postponed the implementation of such levies, at least on Mexican and Canadian imports. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, says: “Central Bank’s decisions and macroeconomic data in general is being overshadowed by US President Trump's decision to unleash a trade war. The UK is not out of Trump’s radar, but it is definitely not among his top rivals. Still, the risk of the UK economic slowdown accelerating amid fresh US tariffs pends on policymakers ahead of the announcement. As for GBP/USD, the pair may resume its slump with a dovish tilt, albeit the reaction could be limited as investors anticipate it. If policymakers sound hawkish, the GBP/USD will likely gain extra upward traction.” Bednarik adds: “The GBP/USD pair has an immediate resistance level at the 1.2600 threshold, with gains beyond the area exposing 1.266, the December 19 daily high. Beyond the latter, the rally could continue towards the 1.2700-1.2720 area en route to the 1.2800 figure. The 1.2470 price zone provides support ahead of the 1.2400 figure. A break below the latter could see the pair resuming its bearish trend and retesting the aforementioned weekly low at 1.2248.” Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 4.5%Previous: 4.75%Source: Bank of England

08:46 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) up to 2.7% in January from previous 2.6%
Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) up to 2.7% in January from previous 2.6%

08:35 EUR/GBP softens below 0.8350 as traders brace for BoE rate decision
The EUR/GBP cross remains on the defensive around 0.8320 during the early European session on Thursday.

08:15 ECB’s Cipollone: Rate cuts are coherent with declining inflation picture
European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Piero Cipollone said on Thursday, “rate cuts are coherent with declining inflation picture.” Additional quotes Inflation is almost reaching the target.

European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Piero Cipollone said on Thursday, “rate cuts are coherent with declining inflation picture.” Additional quotes Inflation is almost reaching the target. Economic fundamentals not significantly different from December projections. No recession seen, soft landing is still the main scenario. US tariffs on China could force Beijing to dump goods on Europe. That could weigh on growth, inflation.

08:02 FX option expiries for Feb 6 NY cut
FX option expiries for Feb 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Feb 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0200 2.5b 1.0250 2.2b 1.0300 2.5b 1.0320 1.7b 1.0325 1.8b 1.0350 1.2b 1.0380 1.1b 1.0400 2.1b 1.0410 1.3b 1.0440 1.9b 1.0480 915m 1.0500 2.6b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2300 1b 1.2455 1.4b 1.2550 1.2b USD/JPY: USD amounts 152.50 1.3b 153.90 1.6b 154.50 1.3b 155.60 666m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.9000 957m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6165 626m 0.6275 570m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4160 690m 1.4200 1.8b 1.4400 1b 1.4700 583m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5525 680m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8400 1.4b 0.8465 1.1b

07:50 USD/CHF rebounds from 0.9000 mark, over one-week low amid modest USD strength
The USD/CHF pair defends the 0.9000 psychological mark and attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing streak to over a one-week low touched the previous day.

07:19 BoJ’s Tamura: Not saying that the neutral rate should be 1%
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura is back on the wires, via Reuters, clarifying his earlier remarks on the central bank’s interest rate.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura is back on the wires, via Reuters, clarifying his earlier remarks on the central bank’s interest rate. Key quotes Not saying that neutral rate should be 1%. Difficult to specify terminal rate at this point. Will try to find where neutral rate should be while examining how economy prices respond to rate hikes.

07:19 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bearish outlook remains intact below 190.50
The GBP/JPY cross trades in a negative territory around 190.25 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

07:06 EUR/USD holds losses below 1.0400 ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales data
EUR/USD depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 1.0390 during the Asian session on Thursday.

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Traders await Eurozone Retail Sales data scheduled to be released later in the day. Market forecasts anticipate Pan-European Retail Sales to grow 1.9% year-over-year in December, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month. However, the MoM figure for December is expected to decline by 0.1%, against the previous 0.1% increase. The Euro remains subdued amid ongoing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue with its policy-easing spree, given that officials are confident about inflation sustainably returning to the central bank’s target of 2% this year.The EUR/USD pair could have received downward pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s (USD) value against six major currencies, holds ground following its three-day losing streak. The DXY trades around 107.70 at the time of writing. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed satisfaction with maintaining the current Fed Funds rate, stating that he plans to assess the overall impact of Trump’s policies before making further decisions. He also highlighted that, despite a 100-basis-point decrease, the Fed’s rate remains restrictive for the economy. On Wednesday, the weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) weighed on the Greenback. The US ISM Services PMI eased to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3. Traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures the volume of retail sales in the Eurozone. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term, which accounts for around 5% of the total value added of the Eurozone economies. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Feb 06, 2025 10:00 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 1.9%Previous: 1.2%Source: Eurostat

06:43 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Climbs closer to mid-1.4300s; lacks bullish conviction
The USD/CAD pair ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from over a two-week low, around the 1.4270 region touched the previous day.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,074.29 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,053.87 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 94,176.97 per tola from INR 93,938.73 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,074.29 10 Grams 80,742.93 Tola 94,176.97 Troy Ounce 251,138.80 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold price sits near all-time peak; overbought conditions warrant caution for bulls Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to mid-tier US data, Fedspeak for fresh impetus Gold price rallies on traders seeking safetyGold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:20 GBP/USD steadies around 1.2500, downside risks appear due to dovish mood surrounding BoE
GBP/USD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.2490 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD moves little as traders adopt caution ahead of the BoE’s interest rate decision on Thursday.The BoE is widely anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut in February.The US ISM Services PMI eased to 52.8 in January from 54.0 in December.GBP/USD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.2490 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) could face downward pressure amid expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will resume its policy-easing cycle, likely lowering interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% later in the day. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is anticipated to vote 8-1 in favor of a quarter-point rate cut to 4.5%, with one member possibly suggesting that rates should be left unchanged for another meeting.The GBP/USD pair inches lower as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s (USD) value against six major currencies, holds ground following its three-day losing streak. The DXY trades around 107.60 at the time of writing. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed his satisfaction with keeping the Fed Funds rate at its current level, stating that he would assess the overall impact of Trump's policies before making further decisions. He also emphasized that the Fed's rate remains restrictive for the economy, even with a 100-basis-point decline. On Wednesday, the weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) weighed on the Greenback. The US ISM Services PMI eased to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3. Traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 4.5%Previous: 4.75%Source: Bank of England

06:17 Gold price sits near all-time peak; overbought conditions warrant caution for bulls
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to the all-time peak touched the previous day.

05:41 US Treasury Sec Bessent: Focus is on bringing down 10-year Treasury yields than Fed’s key short-term rate.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Wednesday, the “focus is on bringing down 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate.” Additional comments Failure to get the tax bill done will result in the "largest tax hike in history".

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Wednesday, the “focus is on bringing down 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate.” Additional comments Failure to get the tax bill done will result in the "largest tax hike in history". US President Donald Trump wants lower interest rates. Trump not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates. Interest rates will take care of themselves if we get energy costs down and deregulate the economy. Tariffs are not focused on revenue right now. Tariffs are aimed at bringing manufacturing base back to the US. Market reaction The US Dollar Index (USD) shows little to no reaction to these comments, trading modestly flat around 107.65, as of writing.

05:19 USD/INR gathers strength amid RBI rate cut expectations
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its downside on Thursday. The local currency remains under selling pressure amid the expectation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might cut the interest rates on Friday.

05:07 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD maintains position around $32.50, three-month highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading near $32.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday.

04:30 Japanese Yen rallies to near two-month top against USD amid hawkish BoJ expectations
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday amid the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would keep raising interest rates.

04:06 WTI remains on the defensive near $71.00 amid a rise in US oil stockpiles, concern about US-China trade
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.00 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:51 AUD/JPY drops to near 95.50 as Australia's trade surplus shrinks to a three-month low
AUD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 95.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY loses ground as Australia's trade surplus fell to 5,085M in December, the smallest balance since last September.The AUD faces challenges amid increased dovish sentiment surrounding the RBA’s upcoming policy decision.The Japanese Yen gains strength as solid wage and services data boost expectations of a more hawkish BoJ.AUD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 95.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. This decline of the cross is attributed to the subdued Australian Dollar (AUD) following the lower-than-expected Trade Balance data release. Australia's trade surplus fell to 5,085M in December, missing the expected 7,000M and down from the previous surplus of 6,792M. This was the smallest balance since last September. Exports increased by 1.1% MoM, slowing from November's 4.2% rise, while imports surged 5.9% MoM, up from 1.4% in the prior month. The weaker trade balance data in Australia bolsters the dovish sentiment surrounding the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to deliver a rate cut in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing that inflation must “sustainably” return to its 2%-3% target range before any policy easing. Additionally, the AUD/JPY cross receives downward pressure from risk-off sentiment amid rising fears over US-China trade tensions. China, Australia’s key trading partner, retaliated against the new 10% US tariff that took effect on Tuesday. However, Trump stated on Monday afternoon that he would likely speak with China within the next 24 hours. He also warned, "If we can't reach a deal with China, the tariffs will be very, very substantial." The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its peers as robust wage and services data fuel expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ). Data showed that real wages in Japan increased for the second straight month in December, while nominal wage growth reached its highest level in nearly three decades. Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, told parliament on Thursday that deflation has not yet ended. Kato also noted ongoing inflationary conditions as prices continue to rise. Société Générale's FX analysts noted that the Japanese Yen is outperforming, while 10-year JGB yields have risen to nearly 1.30%, the highest level since April 2011. However, with the BoJ policy rate expected to peak around 1.00% over the next two years, the upside for both JPY and JGB yields remains limited. Economic Indicator Trade Balance (MoM) The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD. Read more. Last release: Thu Feb 06, 2025 00:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 5,085MConsensus: 7,000MPrevious: 7,079MSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics

03:48 BoJ's Tamura: Gradual rate hike in a timely manner
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura on Thursday suggested a gradual rate hike in a timely manner.

03:24 Fed's Jefferson: Happy to keep Fed Funds on hold at current rate
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that he is happy to keep the Fed Funds on hold at the current level, adding that he will wait to see the net effect of Trump policies.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that he is happy to keep the Fed Funds on hold at the current level, adding that he will wait to see the net effect of Trump policies. Key quotes Waits to see net effect of Trump policies.

Examining overall impact of Trump administration on policy goals needed.

Opts to maintain current interest rates for the time being.

Content with current policy level until totality of impacts better understood.

Sees Fed's ability to be patient with the economy in a good place.

Fed's rate still restrictive even with 100 bp drop.

Policy rate remains restrictive for the economy. Market reaction The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading unchanged on the day at 107.60, as of writing.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1691 vs. 7.1693 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1691 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1693 and 7.2535 Reuters estimates.

03:10 Japan's Kato sees inflation pressure continuing to rise
Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, said on Thursday that the end of deflation has not yet been achieved.

03:01 Australian Dollar remains subdued following Trade Balance data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) following lower-than-expected Trade Balance data released on Thursday.

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Additionally, the AUD/USD pair receives downward pressure from risk-off sentiment amid rising fears over US-China trade tensions. Australia's trade surplus fell to 5,085M in December, missing the expected 7,000M and down from the previous surplus of 6,792M. Exports increased by 1.1% MoM, slowing from November's 4.2% rise, while imports surged 5.9% MoM, up from 1.4% in the prior month. Traders closely watch the ongoing trade war between the United States (US) and China, Australia’s key trading partner. China retaliated against the new 10% US tariff that took effect on Tuesday. However, Trump stated on Monday afternoon that he would likely speak with China within the next 24 hours. He also warned, "If we can't reach a deal with China, the tariffs will be very, very substantial." Australian Dollar receives downward pressure from rising US-China trade tensions The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, remains under subdued near 107.50 at the time of writing. The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could have weighed on the Greenback. The US ISM Services PMI eased to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3. Traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction. President Trump has agreed to a 30-day suspension of the proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. This decision comes after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum committed to enhancing border security measures to address concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. China’s Commerce Ministry announced that it will impose a 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, along with an additional 10% tariff on crude Oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles. Additionally, to "safeguard national security interests," China is implementing export controls on tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum, and related products. According to the Financial Times, Chinese exporters are intensifying their efforts to offshore production in response to Trump’s tariffs. Manufacturers in China are accelerating plans to relocate production to other countries, including the Middle East, to avoid US tariffs. Other tactics being considered include passing the increased costs onto US consumers and exploring alternative markets. JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.6 million in December, missing the 8 million consensus estimate. The US labor market remains stable with total separations little changed at 5.3 million in December. San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly stated on Tuesday that the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, emphasizing the impact of economic uncertainty on policymaking. While the economy is performing well and maintaining momentum, uncertainty persists. As a result, the Fed has the flexibility to carefully assess data before making policy adjustments. Australia’s Judo Bank Composite PMI climbed to 51.1 in January from 50.2 in December, reflecting modest growth in private sector activity. Meanwhile, the Judo Bank Services PMI rose to 51.2 from 50.8, marking the twelfth consecutive month of expansion in the services sector. Although growth was moderate, it was the strongest since August. Australian Dollar pulls back from 0.6300, support appears at nine-day EMA The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6280 on Thursday. Sustained price action above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart indicates a stronger short-term bullish momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 level, confirming a stronger bullish trend. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could explore the area around its seven-week high at 0.6330 level, which was recorded on January 24. The AUD/USD pair may find immediate support at the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249 level. A break below these EMAs could weaken the bullish bias, potentially driving the pair toward 0.6087, the lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% -0.01% -0.23% 0.05% 0.10% 0.05% 0.03% EUR -0.07% -0.08% -0.30% -0.01% 0.03% -0.01% -0.06% GBP 0.01% 0.08% -0.25% 0.07% 0.11% 0.07% 0.04% JPY 0.23% 0.30% 0.25% 0.30% 0.34% 0.26% 0.27% CAD -0.05% 0.00% -0.07% -0.30% 0.05% -0.00% -0.02% AUD -0.10% -0.03% -0.11% -0.34% -0.05% -0.04% -0.09% NZD -0.05% 0.01% -0.07% -0.26% 0.00% 0.04% -0.02% CHF -0.03% 0.06% -0.04% -0.27% 0.02% 0.09% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:01 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services down to 53.4 in January from previous 57.1
Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services down to 53.4 in January from previous 57.1

02:59 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) up to -4 in 4Q from previous -6
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) up to -4 in 4Q from previous -6

02:35 Australia’s Trade Surplus decreases to 5,085M MoM in December vs. 7,000M expected
Australia’s trade surplus decreased to 5,085M MoM in December versus 7,000M expected and 6,792M (revised from 7,079) in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

02:31 Australia Exports (MoM) down to 1.1% in December from previous 4.8%
Australia Exports (MoM) down to 1.1% in December from previous 4.8%

02:31 Australia Imports (MoM) increased to 5.9% in December from previous 1.7%
Australia Imports (MoM) increased to 5.9% in December from previous 1.7%

02:30 Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations (7000M) in December: Actual (5085M)
Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations (7000M) in December: Actual (5085M)

02:16 NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data
The NZD/USD pair trades with mild gains around 0.5690 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥753B to ¥-315.2B in January 31
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥753B to ¥-315.2B in January 31

01:36 EUR/USD stuck on familiar technical levels during midweek lull
EUR/USD dragged its feet on Wednesday, finding some topside bidding action as a broad-market recovery in risk appetite keeps bids behind the US Dollar under pressure.

01:17 GBP/USD cautiously bullish ahead of BoE rate call
GBP/USD found some bidding action amid a broad-market easing in the Greenback.

01:16 China initiates WTO complaint regarding new US tariffs
China initiated a World Trade Organization (WTO) over the new tariffs imposed by the United States on goods from China, the WTO said on Wednesday.

01:00 South Korea Current Account Balance increased to 12.37B in December from previous 9.3B
South Korea Current Account Balance increased to 12.37B in December from previous 9.3B

00:57 USD/CAD trades with mild losses near 1.4300 as tariff worries ease
The USD/CAD pair posts modest losses near 1.4315 during the late American session on Wednesday.

00:33 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Turns bearish, breaches Ichimoku Cloud and 200-DMA
The USD/JPY plummeted 175 pips on Wednesday, posting losses of over 1.13% as the pair cleared the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo).

00:02 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair extends rally, approaching the 0.5700 mark
The NZD/USD pair extended its winning streak on Wednesday, posting a 0.67% gain to reach 0.5685.

NZD/USD advances nearly 0.70% on Wednesday, climbing to 0.5685.The pair maintains its position above the 20-day SMA, reinforcing bullish momentum.Bulls must conquer the 0.5700 area to confirm a recovery.The NZD/USD pair extended its winning streak on Wednesday, posting a 0.67% gain to reach 0.5685. This upward move follows a breakout above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which now acts as a key support level. The bullish sentiment appears to be strengthening, with the pair eyeing further gains toward the 0.5700 psychological threshold. Technical indicators confirm the ongoing bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 58, indicating growing buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to print rising green bars, reflecting a steady acceleration in momentum. Looking ahead, NZD/USD faces an initial resistance zone at 0.5700, with a further upside target at 0.5735. On the downside, the 20-day SMA, currently near 0.5635, should act as the first line of support, followed by 0.5600 if a correction takes place. As long as the pair holds above the 20-day SMA, the short-term outlook remains in favor of the bulls. NZD/USD daily chart

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21:00 Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate in line with expectations (9.5%) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate in line with expectations (9.5%)

20:35 US Dollar with some gains after mixed economic data ahead of key employment report The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, struggles to hold its recent gains, trading below 108.00 on Thursday.

20:00 Mexican Peso climbs ahead of Banxico’s decision The Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciated during the North American session as traders braced for Banco de Mexico's (Banxico) first monetary policy decision of 2025.

19:25 Dow Jones Industrial Average splits from the pack and sheds 150 points The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slid on Thursday, falling around 150 points to retest the 44,750 level.

18:45 Canadian Dollar flattens ahead of key labor prints The Canadian Dollar (CAD) spun in a tight circle on Thursday, churning chart paper near 1.4300 against the US Dollar (USD) as markets gear up for another Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Friday.

18:32 United States 4-Week Bill Auction unchanged at 4.25% United States 4-Week Bill Auction unchanged at 4.25%

18:08 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls pause as pair retreats toward 20-day SMA The EUR/USD pair pulled back on Thursday, declining by 0.45% to 1.0370 as bullish momentum faded.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (-167B) in January 31: Actual (-174B) United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (-167B) in January 31: Actual (-174B)

17:07 GBP/USD plummets as BoE cut rates unanimously The Pound Sterling fell during Thursday’s North American session, down 0.79% after the Bank of England (BoE) reduced the Bank Rate by 25 basis points.

17:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a below expectations (53) in January: Actual (47.1) Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a below expectations (53) in January: Actual (47.1)

16:06 EUR/GBP rallies to near 0.8380 after BoE’s dovish interest rate decision The EUR/GBP pair surges and posts a fresh weekly high to near 0.8380 in Thursday’s North American session.

15:54 US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K last week US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 219K for the week ending February 1, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.

15:45 GBP/USD slides further after expected BoE rate cut – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) slid in the wake of the BoE rate decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:41 EUR/USD: Ignores stronger German Factory Orders data – Scotiabank German Factory Orders data for December rose a solid 6.9% in the month, versus expectations for a 2.0% gain, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:38 CAD: Spreads remain a big impediment to a stronger rebound – Scotiabank The softer CAD reflects the general trend in the majors against the broadly higher USD on the session.

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims above expectations (1.87M) in January 24: Actual (1.886M) United States Continuing Jobless Claims above expectations (1.87M) in January 24: Actual (1.886M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K, above forecasts (213K) in January 31 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K, above forecasts (213K) in January 31

15:30 United States Unit Labor Costs came in at 3%, below expectations (3.8%) in 4Q United States Unit Labor Costs came in at 3%, below expectations (3.8%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 216.75K (January 31) vs 212.5K United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 216.75K (January 31) vs 212.5K

15:26 USD strengthens modestly – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is trading a little higher overall this morning, partially reversing three days of losses following the tariff turmoil at the start of the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:08 GBP/JPY dives to near 188.40 as all BoE members support 25-bps interest rate reduction The GBP/JPY pair faces an intense sell-off and dives vertically to near 188.40 in Thursday’s North American session, the lowest level seen in two months.

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $620.8B from previous $619.7B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $620.8B from previous $619.7B

14:43 Bailey speech: Consumers are more price conscious and holding back on spending Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the policy outlook and responds to questions from the press following the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the February meeting.

14:36 Bailey speech: We expect to be able to cut bank rate further Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the policy outlook and responds to questions from the press following the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the February meeting.

14:30 United States Challenger Job Cuts: 49.795K (January) vs 38.792K United States Challenger Job Cuts: 49.795K (January) vs 38.792K

14:06 US Dollar bounces off support after softening stance from President Trump The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, ticks up in the European trading session on Thursday, trading slightly below 108.00 at the time of writing.

14:03 Mexico Consumer Confidence: 47.1 (January) vs previous 47.3 Mexico Consumer Confidence: 47.1 (January) vs previous 47.3

14:02 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a dipped from previous 47.1 to 46.7 in January Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a dipped from previous 47.1 to 46.7 in January

14:01 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike in line with forecasts (0) United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike in line with forecasts (0)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (4.5%) United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (4.5%)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 0, below expectations (1) United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 0, below expectations (1)

13:41 USD/MXN: Short-term price action to remain between 20.12/20.00 and 21.00 – Societe Generale USD/MXN carved out an interim high near 21.28 earlier this week and re-integrated within its multi-month range; this denotes lack of steady upward momentum, Societe Generale’s FX analysts note.

13:36 CHF: SNB interest rates can turn negative again later this year – Rabobank The next SNB policy meeting is not scheduled until March 20, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

13:32 Markets price-in a BOJ policy rate of 0.75% by year-end – BBH JPY is outperforming. Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member Naoki Tamura argued for a faster normalization cycle, BBH FX analysts note.

13:29 USD/CNH: To trade in a range between 7.2650 and 7.3050 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.2650 and 7.3050. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; USD could trade in a 7.2430/7.3580 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

13:15 Gold hits another fresh record – ING Gold rallied to a new all-time high amid trade war concerns that risk higher inflation and slower economic growth, spurring demand for safe-haven assets, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

12:45 GBP: Sterling could hand back recent gains – ING The Bank Of England's (BoE) trade-weighted sterling index has rallied 1.7% since the middle of January. The recovery from the gilt-triggered January sell-off has undoubtedly been helped by the rally in US Treasuries.

12:41 EUR/USD declines as US Dollar gains ground ahead of US NFP EUR/USD corrects to near 1.0360 in Thursday’s European session.

12:40 USD: Dollar bull trend situation report – ING The DXY dollar index is roughly 2% off its recent highs and the question for investors is whether a further 1-2% is required.

12:29 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Gains ahead of BoE’s policy decision The EUR/GBP pair rises to near 0.8333 in Thursday’s European session.

12:05 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 2.743% to 2.23% Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction dipped from previous 2.743% to 2.23%

12:05 Spain 3-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.586% to 2.388% Spain 3-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.586% to 2.388%

12:05 Eurozone Retail Sales rise 1.9% YoY in December, as expected Eurozone’s Retail Sales rose 1.9% in the year through December after increasing by a revised 1.6% in November, the official data released by Eurostat showed on Thursday.

12:03 France 10-y Bond Auction: 3.15% vs previous 3.4% France 10-y Bond Auction: 3.15% vs previous 3.4%

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in December Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (1.9%) in December

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in December Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in December

11:45 Spain 30-y Bond Auction: 3.691% vs previous 3.877% Spain 30-y Bond Auction: 3.691% vs previous 3.877%

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below expectations (53.4) in January: Actual (48.1) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below expectations (53.4) in January: Actual (48.1)

11:16 WTI price remains above $71.00 as Saudi Aramco raises march oil prices for Asia West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds modest gains after three consecutive days of losses, trading around $71.10 per barrel during European trading hours on Thursday.

11:04 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains depressed near $32.00; bullish bias remains Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick on Thursday and snaps a three-day winning streak to a three-month top, around the $32.55 region touched the previous day.

10:54 EUR: Some renewed attention on Ukraine – ING One wild card for EUR/USD this year is what happens in Ukraine. Yesterday the FX market took note of the further rise in Ukraine's hard currency bonds.

10:46 AUD/USD remains weak as US-China trade tensions escalate with new tariffs The AUD/USD pair weakens to near 0.6260 on Thursday during the European trading hours, pressured by rising fears over US-China trade war tensions and lower-than-expected Australian Trade Balance data.

10:20 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA near 0.5650; moves within a rectangular pattern The NZD/USD pair breaks its four-day winning streak, trading around 0.5660 during the European hours on Thursday.

09:51 Forex Today: BoE policy announcements, US data to drive markets Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 6: Major currency pairs stay relatively quiet early Thursday as investors gear up for the upcoming key events.

09:51 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Path of least resistance level is to the downside below 158.50 The EUR/JPY cross extends its decline to around 158.45 during the early European session on Thursday.

09:46 Pound Sterling stabilizes ahead of BoE’s policy decision The Pound Sterling (GBP) stabilizes against its major peers, except safe-haven currencies, on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 12:00 GMT.

09:32 GBP/JPY falls below 190.50 as traders expect BoE to deliver an interest rate cut GBP/JPY continues to lose ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 190.40 during the early European hours on Thursday.

09:05 German Factory Orders jump 6.9% MoM in December vs. 2% expected The official data published by the Federal Statistics Office showed Thursday that Germany's Factory Orders rebounded firmly in December, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector is seeing a sharp turnaround.

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) fell from previous -1.7% to -6.3% in December Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) fell from previous -1.7% to -6.3% in December

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 6.9%, above expectations (2%) in December Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 6.9%, above expectations (2%) in December

09:00 BoE expected to trim interest rate amid steady inflation and weak economic growth The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its decision on monetary policy on Thursday after completing the first meeting of 2025.

08:46 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) up to 2.7% in January from previous 2.6% Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) up to 2.7% in January from previous 2.6%

08:35 EUR/GBP softens below 0.8350 as traders brace for BoE rate decision The EUR/GBP cross remains on the defensive around 0.8320 during the early European session on Thursday.

08:15 ECB’s Cipollone: Rate cuts are coherent with declining inflation picture European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Piero Cipollone said on Thursday, “rate cuts are coherent with declining inflation picture.” Additional quotes Inflation is almost reaching the target.

08:02 FX option expiries for Feb 6 NY cut FX option expiries for Feb 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:50 USD/CHF rebounds from 0.9000 mark, over one-week low amid modest USD strength The USD/CHF pair defends the 0.9000 psychological mark and attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing streak to over a one-week low touched the previous day.

07:19 BoJ’s Tamura: Not saying that the neutral rate should be 1% Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura is back on the wires, via Reuters, clarifying his earlier remarks on the central bank’s interest rate.

07:19 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bearish outlook remains intact below 190.50 The GBP/JPY cross trades in a negative territory around 190.25 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

07:06 EUR/USD holds losses below 1.0400 ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales data EUR/USD depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 1.0390 during the Asian session on Thursday.

06:43 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Climbs closer to mid-1.4300s; lacks bullish conviction The USD/CAD pair ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from over a two-week low, around the 1.4270 region touched the previous day.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:20 GBP/USD steadies around 1.2500, downside risks appear due to dovish mood surrounding BoE GBP/USD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.2490 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

06:17 Gold price sits near all-time peak; overbought conditions warrant caution for bulls Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to the all-time peak touched the previous day.

05:19 USD/INR gathers strength amid RBI rate cut expectations The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its downside on Thursday. The local currency remains under selling pressure amid the expectation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might cut the interest rates on Friday.

05:07 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD maintains position around $32.50, three-month highs Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading near $32.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday.

04:06 WTI remains on the defensive near $71.00 amid a rise in US oil stockpiles, concern about US-China trade West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.00 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:51 AUD/JPY drops to near 95.50 as Australia's trade surplus shrinks to a three-month low AUD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 95.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

03:48 BoJ's Tamura: Gradual rate hike in a timely manner The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura on Thursday suggested a gradual rate hike in a timely manner.